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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 12-14, 2018 | Winter Storm

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9 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

From my understanding, the first thread is for the storm that is passing through either the MW or Apps, depending on the model, setting up the cold shot. The ECM just has the energy a bit quicker. I might be mixed up, lol.

Yes you are a bit crossed

if you go back to the other thread I posted the z500 48hr trend from 12z gfs

the energy that is crossing to our west is speeding up on both the gfs and the euro which in turn is moving a front through which the gfs forms an Lp on earlier than the euro 

the euro waits an extra day or so and then does it's dilly on the 9th 

the important thing is to follow the energy on the 6-7th and the trend of speeding it up allowing for greater height falls to more be east in the 7-9 timeframe 

dont get caught up in anything on models past day 10 right now

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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Updating:

Today's EPS Emsemble Control MSLP output, display the possible blocking I mentioned on the thread's openning post, as the NAO is progged to be negative and on the move to positive around this time. That changing evolution usually argues for a stormy time. Would as well, like to give praise to @UTSwiinii for his mention and post concerning the blocking, as it forces a rather robust high pressure ridge to the north of the storm to form, as a low pressure system starts its embryonic stages over the north central GOMEX and the evolves as more organized stym (storm) over the SE CONUS and goes coastal as it battles the ridge to its north while displacing itself towards the Atlantic ocean just south of Long Island and Cape Cod.  

 

eps_mslp_cont_conus_276.thumb.png.4a3bbf2a02a27735d27c55d260882acf.png
 

Spoiler

 

eps_mslp_cont_conus_288.thumb.png.d559974212ab1fbc192e454059b82d15.png

eps_mslp_cont_conus_300.thumb.png.18f2b9a41adfeef913cd1ba1a9b26c1c.png

eps_mslp_cont_conus_312.thumb.png.57ec78070cb61f6a0becc65830239745.png

eps_mslp_cont_conus_324.thumb.png.8dbcd1a1553713f8a41ad5ad4d513a2d.png

 

 

 

 

@UTSwiinii

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Pretty remarkable signal when the LR GFS aligns so nicely with OFM

18z GFS

Another "important" storm system seems to be growing probability. 

 

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28 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Pretty remarkable signal when the LR GFS aligns so nicely with OFM

18z GFS

Another "important" storm system seems to be growing probability. 

 

Indeed. Something is going to happen...the question is what, when, and how. 

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48 minutes ago, brodoser1 said:

Not going to get hyped just yet long way out stay calm 🤪

Yep, a long way to go on this one. However I am liking some of the setup(Blocking, cold) as some of our very knowledgeable  members have mentioned.  Certainly a thread to watch. Plus I have many appointments that week(like a 3 ton delivery of wood pellets, and other appointments.) so that's a guarantee something will happen. Either way, I will take the white gold. 

image.png.89e02991a90615f79e4cd65f300081db.png

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?

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:classic_ohmy:!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh240-288.thumb.gif.58c40c890812ba5d354dbf8504c0f43a.gif

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EPS Control

1938678278_11-1eps.gif.c1c53faa03b70f77cab898216bc5699b.gif

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12z GFS verbatim is a late LP development off the coast...my takeaway at this range is that the run came in colder D7-D9 (pregame) compared to the 6z, will have to wait and see if this trend continues. I don't think the models will start to zero in on anything until the Nov 7-10 storm happens. Just my opinion.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

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I am  just not seeing any cold coming yet but its early in   nov :negative:

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2 hours ago, brodoser1 said:

I am  just not seeing any cold coming yet but its early in   nov :negative:

These threads are not only for tracking snow storms. In fact this thread is labeled "fall storm".

Climatology tells us inland and elevated areas are favored for snow until we get towards the end of Nov. 

That doesn't mean a storm could partially or fully phase and basically assist in creating its own cold.  That's what many of the posters here do.  We track through the intraseasonal periods and observe the transition or the anamolous scenarios.  Rain or snow.

The atmosphere is not a light switch. 

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18Z FV3 GFS, displays scenario 1 laid out on the thread's opener track wise.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh276-294.gif.40122c024117ccaf0559edcba6c1a75b.gif

This run shows a very stprng block and impressive cold aor for this time of year. So much so, that the coastal storm dumpa snow in Virginia, DC, etc. The storms does not manage to track farther north.

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Storm precip further north on GFS 11/2 - 00Z run then the 11/1- 18Z run. Here are hours 222-252. Plenty of time to watch this.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh222-252.gif

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?

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It’s about time DC repeats the 1987 Veterans Day Storm. I’m still mad that my house only had 7-8 inches...many others in double digits. :classic_rolleyes: 

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There's nothing in this time frame for the NE/MA on the EPS control. 

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10 hours ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

Storm precip further north on GFS 11/2 - 00Z run then the 11/1- 18Z run. Here are hours 222-252. Plenty of time to watch this.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh222-252.gif

lets see if it brings in some cold air

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18Z FV3 GFS: 

Inland version of SCENARIO 1:

e99ce8e7-a082-41ed-bcda-4f6e4ff46cfa.gif.60c5c5df315f2810b2faf08352a5c4cf.gif

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12Z EPS EMSEMBLE CONTROL MSLP OUTPUT:

Scenario 1:

eps_mslp_cont_conus_300.thumb.png.054bd8c1ce49b5e89ec45df1ef0f31c6.png
 

Spoiler

 

eps_mslp_cont_conus_312.thumb.png.3a12278a246b89f5dec463bf60656a7a.png

eps_mslp_cont_conus_324.thumb.png.8424e2c1dfff88e6606311271cccd1fb.png

eps_mslp_cont_conus_336.thumb.png.92411e5fdac5c99ad54de389e3bee777.png

eps_mslp_cont_conus_348.thumb.png.0ff88f3d3cf8f84b2c717dc24da75136.png

 

 

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12 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

18Z FV3 GFS: 

Inland version of SCENARIO 1:

e99ce8e7-a082-41ed-bcda-4f6e4ff46cfa.gif.60c5c5df315f2810b2faf08352a5c4cf.gif

I don’t like that run lol

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21 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

Why hello there...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

 

Capture.PNG.34c6712990d1740d3be2aa63d926fe7d.PNG

gfs_z500a_namer_44.png.c0665b9537a337ee1c0b27ea47cc5a9b.png

:classic_ninja:

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Just now, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

Why hello there...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

 

 

Just now, UTSwiinii said:

Capture.PNG.34c6712990d1740d3be2aa63d926fe7d.PNG

gfs_z500a_namer_44.png.c0665b9537a337ee1c0b27ea47cc5a9b.png

:classic_ninja:

Scenario 1. Although this run display a semi-phase between the Atlantic coastal energy and clipper energy.

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The 12Z FV3 GFS run looks like it could be a verry interesting run.

fv3p_z500_vort_us_36.png.753ff54e05db149402645c18fde90dd6.png

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4 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

 

Scenario 1. Although this run display a semi-phase between the Atlantic coastal energy and clipper energy.

yes- the general idea is "in there" but the devil is always in the details. Those remain speculative for a while yet, of course. 

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4 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

The 12Z FV3 GFS run looks like it could be a verry interesting run.

JAX Rule corollary type set up in that particular run

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png.c8c84b4ac0100d6b91ac1061b507a796.png

As we creep towards colder average temps, the result could be wintery "fringes" (of the main precip shield - IOW, not a total frozen outcome)

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