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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 12-14, 2018 | Winter Storm

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Just now, UTSwiinii said:

yes- the general idea is "in there" but the devil is always in the details. Those remain speculative for a while yet, of course. 

Those entertaining details. They are the always ready to play with us.

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Just now, UTSwiinii said:

JAX Rule corollary type set up in that particular run

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png.c8c84b4ac0100d6b91ac1061b507a796.png

As we creep towards colder average temps, the result could be wintery "fringes" (of the main precip shield - IOW, not a total frozen outcome)

The favorable tracks will tend to allow for those wintry fringes you speak of, the deeper we head into the season and eventually fringes will become whole.

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Just now, Phased Vort said:

The 12Z FV3 GFS run looks like it could be a verry interesting run.

fv3p_z500_vort_us_36.png.753ff54e05db149402645c18fde90dd6.png

As we expected.

Unique run.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh210-258.gif.2ed8eff1da36caf1ec9fa113096a653b.gif

  • Wow! 1

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48 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

JAX Rule corollary type set up in that particular run

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png.c8c84b4ac0100d6b91ac1061b507a796.png

As we creep towards colder average temps, the result could be wintery "fringes" (of the main precip shield - IOW, not a total frozen outcome)

What is the JAX rule?

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44 minutes ago, gulfofslides said:

What is the JAX rule?

We'll have to add it to the glossary. It is a corollary that we can use, in most instances.

The "Rule" is that if there is convection in the Big Bend - Jacksonville region of FL, at the base of (or just in front of) the base of the H5 trough (I call it the Longwave trough at times) - the most likely result to follow is a coastal system that rides the boundary to the north-northeast. Expect deepening storm conditions in the MidAtl/NE region within 24-48 hours (give or take). When there is cold air present (especially so if cold air is fresh or freshening) - a good portion (if not all, in deep winter) of the precip is likely to be frozen.  Seldom will these storms escape to the so called "OTS" solution. 

We saw it play out a few storms ago - of course, without cold air, we saw copious rain and wind. 

We saw it play out in the V3 Op solution as well. :classic_biggrin:

USCGAT adds to that - which we'll have to bring out at such time as we like the "rule" by underscoring (to direct to the glossary).

 

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image.png.0017ad4acf67ddbb46d15bea3f638996.png

image.png.6ce0c0133e75dd8f81113d972c0f0e64.png

I have a feeling my sleepless winter tracking is going to start early this year....

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😳local tv met just showed this storm this morning saying possible first snow there watching but way out  in fantasy land right now 😏 now that they talked about it we’re screwed 🤣🤣🤣

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Quite a difference 12z GFS v 0z Euro.:classic_blink:

38aJDmE.png

sRzBD8t.png

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Now that the ECMWF is inrange, let's see what it does from now on.

 

12Z run is encouraging.

Boston gets in the fun.

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00Z ECMWF: 

About 9 days out, but another good step for scenario 1, with perhaps, some aid from Scenario 2 clipper energy version.

1328495557_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined186.thumb.png.76d7ff2d3071ccfc4a79ba16a3a67fe7.png

Spoiler

 

2070134954_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined192.thumb.png.b3373593957021fa039befb37ed86fc8.png

384869316_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined198.thumb.png.4059a275ea03aa8a994d78b9b368a56d.png

531231260_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined204.thumb.png.b515703f5c7b0b503a415d11698b5f75.png

994688523_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined210.thumb.png.0f2328aa875d0c655922daa6051ddd25.png

1361745392_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined216.thumb.png.912c79a3daaea49721aefbcaf7fb7fc5.png

1780313080_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined222.thumb.png.e57697fe0a80ab28000e83b7a2776584.png

231352994_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesundefinedundefined228.thumb.png.b92a1a6f770328755527cefca87ecf29.png

 

 

 

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ECMWF00z has a nice interior New England hit with the storm/energy coming from the Gulf..

Euro3.jpg.13e608ffa388a86b205877febe07f361.jpg

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On ‎11‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 2:12 PM, Phased Vort said:

As we expected.

Unique run.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh210-258.gif.2ed8eff1da36caf1ec9fa113096a653b.gif

better then nothing

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at this time of year any snow is a bonus this storm is  still far out will flip flop :forumsmiley1616-1:

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If this strengthens a little more than currently sampled, any chance it could dig more into the trough and shift a bit more west? 

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00Z ECMWF EPS Control MSLP:

Nice storm.

2116415110_eps_mslp_cont_eastcoastus_192-Copia.thumb.png.b4e96735384911fdc683355535df5887.png
1489766989_eps_mslp_cont_eastcoastus_204-Copia.thumb.png.cea04d825988238de598cbde75fbebb2.png

Spoiler


1305955169_eps_mslp_cont_eastcoastus_216-Copia.thumb.png.d91407817a305b80f2effefdd1f5c21a.png

1045436316_eps_mslp_cont_eastcoastus_228-Copia.thumb.png.51100cf2e91e4ec7e4f7bc4c53f7e147.png

eps_mslp_cont_eastcoastus_240.thumb.png.e1883ffee354f670005714ee4c496ea6.png

 

 

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12v fv3 is just about what I’m expecting

3955EF74-3E43-41BB-A137-3F9D63BBDE8D.thumb.png.5c1a31124b6b60f391afe9839c22e962.png

B032BD18-7025-45DE-8D13-8E3738F99C83.thumb.png.f5273cfb5c6d144662929236f07405c9.png

move it west 50 miles and that’s what I’d expect 

from the cape into coastal Maine with snows 

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1 minute ago, Poconosnow said:

12v fv3 is just about what I’m expecting

3955EF74-3E43-41BB-A137-3F9D63BBDE8D.thumb.png.5c1a31124b6b60f391afe9839c22e962.png

B032BD18-7025-45DE-8D13-8E3738F99C83.thumb.png.f5273cfb5c6d144662929236f07405c9.png

move it west 50 miles and that’s what I’d expect 

from the cape into coastal Maine with snows 

I think it's going to turn out more like the Euro.  The FV3 GFS and the GFS aren't representing the north atlantic ridge as being as strong as on the euro, so not as much steering for the storm.  

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1 hour ago, Sacks said:

If this strengthens a little more than currently sampled, any chance it could dig more into the trough and shift a bit more west? 

If this storm were to phase with energy crossing the Great Lakes, yes, it could track more west and depending how west, the eastern most areas would be in the warm sector of the storm.

If the trof accompanying this storm were to be sharp enough to the point where its base went negatively tilted before reaching Georgia, that would also make the storm go even more west.

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1 hour ago, Esquimalt said:

I think it's going to turn out more like the Euro.  The FV3 GFS and the GFS aren't representing the north atlantic ridge as being as strong as on the euro, so not as much steering for the storm.  

 

Gefs and eps were near identical at 00z and 06z accordingly regarding the Atlantic ridge fwiw

its not very “pumped” in the least, nor anomalous 

13FC37A5-AC71-4108-A57E-C579B7002828.thumb.png.467c2adbdee76b6b3704f073d2dd5b38.png79E1A239-F6E8-483B-95B8-5CFEC434BC99.thumb.png.60ace8b9643ab2a1308c4e60071d66ef.png

im not a big deterministic model guy especially past day 7 

It’s just given the organic signaling I favor the “look” that the gfs fv3 has.  

The heights downstream in the North Atlantic aren’t exactly great attm 

and the double barrel low depiction the euro had at 00z is not a stable operational solution most times 

BCBEBBD6-B936-430A-B06E-152BAA0C0C35.png.e67402d48779e6e6bd3cb472abbeddc5.png

 

 

 

Edited by Poconosnow
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12Z Deterministic run, has the storm farther offshore.

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:classic_huh:.

Spoiler

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png.a80051fb1f9fcf7900bc11151b485f6d.png

 

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540 thickness actually makes it into Florida. :classic_laugh:!

Spoiler

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_37.thumb.png.6348a31eaffec6638cf4235aed4a0831.png

 

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18z gfs drops the shortwave all the way back into the four corners region allowing it to cut off completely :classic_blink:

will check the ensemble clustering on weather online to see if there is any percentage of clustering for this deterministic run. I’m gonna assume maybe in the minority

18z runs always seem to find a way lol

 

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

 

Hoping this happens so we can let the accuweather stragglers we outtie

Edited by Blizz_

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