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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 12-14, 2018 | Winter Storm

Staff Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

For laughs here is a 10 run trend gif For when this runs s/w is over the 4 corners

DE43BE3F-9CFE-41D7-9DA8-AF2D2DA9663D.gif.2383e3be02531eb36d15f72c484f09df.gif

Well - that's about annoying, or nauseating - take your pick. 

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9 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Well - that's about annoying, or nauseating - take your pick. 

Both

Isn’t there 18z euro runs now?  Maybe they are just as annoyseating

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Double barrel setup with cold hp to the north of Maine, Im not thinking snow, I'm thinking ice ice baby. CAD signature.  

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10 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

Both

Isn’t there 18z euro runs now?  Maybe they are just as annoyseating

Yeah does anyone have the snow maps for the 18Z Euro?

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Anyone know how much snow they are showing for Staten Island? Flying out of MacArthur on the 13th arriving at LaGuardia for a picnic there on the 14th. :carrot:

Sorry couldn't resist

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19 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

Anyone know how much snow they are showing for Staten Island? Flying out of MacArthur on the 13th arriving at LaGuardia for a picnic there on the 14th. :carrot:

Sorry couldn't resist

Wait until NAM comes into range. :classic_laugh:

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Oh boy. Here we go. :6:

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Just now, Poconosnow said:

Seriously these are the same times

gfs

5B296610-CD35-419F-B6DD-7E20E9AD5CC7.thumb.png.79da8d6cc6cb3aaffd9b7d4016f0823d.png

Fv3

E7822CF6-150E-4157-B714-5CACF09857F3.thumb.png.832c32d6d603c12ddeaa9098adc8af8e.png

:classic_laugh:

 

Both have the cold core High, whats missing?

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5 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

18z gefs mean and member slp and spread

EA10EC37-210C-4830-AD1D-DE9EEECC51CB.thumb.png.b644fde5b3efe750394215bbd3378750.png

So ya umm 

Does that mean the low pressure track featured on the old GFS is more favoured by ensembles or the solution on the new GFS?

Edited by Esquimalt

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18z gefs clustering

F2B79E80-BD09-44D5-83BF-4778DE23E905.thumb.png.6a4c2bfa2d8031e5f7753f607b3c2ed8.png

80% (3 different clusters) have nada on the 14th 

20% have a mean lp of 1002mb forming over Long Island

no support for 18z op that I can tell

 

 

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12Z ECMWF EPS 5 day Total Snowfall Emsemble members;

There actually quite a few EPS members putting powder down on the coast or very close to it. Some of them substantial amounts and some others 1 to 3 inch amounts.

Here are a few:

eps_snow_by5_e01_conus_240.thumb.png.14d45f056853cd627f15f92d94292a7a.png
eps_snow_by5_e25_conus_240.thumb.png.78e81d5fff5b4c278d99ccbb0d013f98.png

Spoiler


eps_snow_by5_e33_conus_240.thumb.png.c164fb2361183fcef1e80132280468f6.png

eps_snow_by5_e36_conus_240.thumb.png.7875b6362ef0cd0f94753dfc1d215440.png

eps_snow_by5_e37_conus_240.thumb.png.0ef0d358d284564fa9225f7e2e011058.png

eps_snow_by5_e44_conus_240.thumb.png.b22b4dcec111d7e79f8cccfa3e0233ad.png

eps_snow_by5_e48_conus_120.thumb.png.700716fde2b254ef6ef501b3bc106742.png

 

eps_snow_by5_e21_conus_240.thumb.png.4547b1e99481d1a6422bc5ad4a30dd61.png

 


 

 

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2 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

18z gefs clustering

F2B79E80-BD09-44D5-83BF-4778DE23E905.thumb.png.6a4c2bfa2d8031e5f7753f607b3c2ed8.png

80% (3 different clusters) have nada on the 14th 

20% have a mean lp of 1002mb forming over Long Island

no support for 18z op that I can tell

 

 

Interesting and  definitely something to watch.

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8 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

Does that mean the low pressure track featured on the old GFS is more favoured by ensembles or the solution on the new GFS?

The members are marked with the red lps or blue hps

what you see is the mean mslp isobars with the spread, they are all over

nothing supports the 18z gfs op

Here’s the overall mean in a different view

35752AF3-290F-4353-B804-0C5898AB06CC.thumb.png.4b31848b1e1a0adb1f8ab3f954f6377e.png

 

I posted the clustering from 18z too

80% made up of three clusters had nothing

4 members had a mean slp that forms over long island

pretty much zero support from the ensemble run for the op

Edited by Poconosnow
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Just now, PlanetMaster said:

37 Lock it in

eps_snow_by5_e37_conus_240.png

But of course. As you wish, Master.

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1 minute ago, Phased Vort said:

But of course. As you wish, Master.

You give me that after being in the Tropics just little over 3 weeks ago and in mid-November? I say Merry Christmas

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5 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

37 Lock it in

eps_snow_by5_e37_conus_240.png

More from member 37 for you Master.

eps_ptype_e37_conus_240.thumb.png.4f204a9756cab19d99f0c37b6a1e8370.png

eps_slp_qpf_e37_conus_240.thumb.png.1f3aaa507ae35f791ecfd85db9c47376.png

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2 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

You give me that after being in the Tropics just little over 3 weeks ago and in mid-November? I say Merry Christmas

Master needs to be honored!!! :6:

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5 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Master needs to be honored!!! :6:

image.png.6eea1b28d4f195b578619c27f92c3848.png

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12Z EPS Ensemble Control MSLP:

eps_mslp_cont_eastcoastus_156.thumb.png.cc8846ca0ed2be3719936a8716e2dfbd.png
eps_mslp_cont_eastcoastus_168.thumb.png.127a1271c6949aa0d6418dff6f12c6d4.png

Spoiler


eps_mslp_cont_eastcoastus_180.thumb.png.270a3125c355796ef5cf061093a749fa.png


 

 

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