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Q-Zar

November 5-6, 2018 | Southern U.S. severe weather outbreak

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Conditions are favorable for strong tornadoes over a large area right now. The tornadic supercells right now could easily produce EF3+ according to STP

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The two supercells have weakened below severe limits. Conditions are still very favorable for tornadoes. Round 2 is probably gonna fire in an hour or so.

zEPZ0Qa.jpg

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Cool, drier air is in place over the north half of Mississippi which is weakening the severe threat.. at least for now

lfuYUCL.jpg

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What are you seeing for straight line winds with that?  Want to make sure I’m not nuts lol

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Just now, SoDakFarmer said:

What are you seeing for straight line winds with that?  Want to make sure I’m not nuts lol

Well given the convection and 50-60 knot winds just off the surface, I'd imagine there's at least 50-60 MPH winds with the squall. I guess it's not providing severe winds, but there's gotta be something close to it.

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I’m not sure just how accurate RadarScope estimates are, but I found several spots over 80 in that line.  That’s why I was asking.

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10 minutes ago, SoDakFarmer said:

I’m not sure just how accurate RadarScope estimates are, but I found several spots over 80 in that line.  That’s why I was asking.

Gotcha. Not sure because GR2 is showing pretty modest winds, like 50 MPH and some 60 MPH with the squall. Are you looking at the winds right over the squall? Also keep in mind that winds will appear stronger the further away you go from the radar because the radar beam is slanted. I see areas of 80+ MPH winds pretty far away from the radar site, but it's actually 8000 feet above the surface, which is probably like 750mb.

Edited by ClicheVortex2014

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Got 5 tornado warnings active. Squall tornadoes spin up very quick and are therefore sometimes unwarned, so the number of tornado warnings doesn't necessarily reflect how many tornadoes may be going on in this case.

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TDS just a little northeast of Tupelo, MS. 101 MPH gate-to-gate rotation 2200 feet above ground. Probably the last thing on peoples mind is tornadoes at midnight on November 6th, but here we are

110618.1.PNG

Edited by ClicheVortex2014

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Today sorta lived up to my expectations. Started off slow and as a result Mississippi mostly got spared. Aside from late afternoon, not as many obvious supercell structures as I thought there'd be. But once the squall got going, it sure did spit out tornadoes. Looks like Tennessee and northeast Mississippi got nailed, and I've seen 4 debris signatures tonight. 3 tornado warnings and 6 severe warnings are valid right now but I need to go to bed.

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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6 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Today sorta lived up to my expectations. Started off slow and as a result Mississippi mostly got spared. Aside from late afternoon, not as many obvious supercell structures as I thought there'd be. But once the squall got going, it sure did spit out tornadoes. Looks like Tennessee and northeast Mississippi got nailed, and I've seen 4 debris signatures tonight. 3 tornado warnings and 6 severe warnings are valid right now but I need to go to bed.

Great job on the play by play, very informative. Kept me coming back all day and night for the frequent updates.

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2 hours ago, PlanetMaster said:

Great job on the play by play, very informative. Kept me coming back all day and night for the frequent updates.

Thanks!

Tally at the beginning of the day. 13 of the wind reports are tagged with "possible tornado", which is more than I've seen in a while. Not sure we'll end up with more tornado reports than 10/31, but it should be pretty impressive.

Rough verification for SPC. West half of the enhanced risk (and where it appeared the highest threat would be) didn't get much, but the east half did. Like I said last night, I think the cooler/dry air in the north half of Mississippi was to blame because storms were obviously having trouble strengthening.

ZvBQT8F.png

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I did a follow-up on my blog...

 

https://blog.organicforecasting.com/2018/11/november-5th-2018-severe-weather-and.html

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46 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

I wish I understood what the corresponding composites and SOI drop/rises meant, its so foreign to me. If I ever get the time I will enlighten myself looks very interesting.

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53 minutes ago, PlanetMaster said:

I wish I understood what the corresponding composites and SOI drop/rises meant, its so foreign to me. If I ever get the time I will enlighten myself looks very interesting.

Dr. Lupo and I are in the process of writing paper for the process.

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On 11/6/2018 at 10:46 AM, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Thanks!

Tally at the beginning of the day. 13 of the wind reports are tagged with "possible tornado", which is more than I've seen in a while. Not sure we'll end up with more tornado reports than 10/31, but it should be pretty impressive.

Rough verification for SPC. West half of the enhanced risk (and where it appeared the highest threat would be) didn't get much, but the east half did. Like I said last night, I think the cooler/dry air in the north half of Mississippi was to blame because storms were obviously having trouble strengthening.

ZvBQT8F.png

Total of 26 tornadoes. SPC had it a little too far west. I don't think they can be blamed for this... looked like Mississippi was gonna get it but something caused the area to dry up. 

1AMcP2U.gif

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