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WINTER IS HERE!

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SOMOSnow

November 8-9 | Winter Weather Event

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Models consistently showing this storm now. Here are the latest runs from the 3 main models - Euro, GFS & Canadian, respectively:ecmwf_tsnow_conus2_26.thumb.png.044a68df0328ac87cfc5ddf6baad627d.png

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_conus2_26.png

cmc_snow_acc_conus2_26.png

Edited by SOMOSnow

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Latest model data. 0z Euro (top), 0z Euro Control (2nd), 6z GFS (3rd) and 0z GEM (4th), respectively. Sorry for zooming in the screenshots too far to see which model is which on some of these....

Screenshot_20181104-094730_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20181104-095117_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20181104-095203_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20181104-095305_Samsung Internet.jpg

Edited by SOMOSnow

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Monday morning Canadian & GFS:

 

Screenshot_20181105-101429_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20181105-101453_Samsung Internet.jpg

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12z GEFS ensembles & ensemble means south of main 12z gfs run:

1949667004_Screenshot_20181105-113751_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.9a35cb3f4944b43994b44ff54f30d9f6.jpg

Screenshot_20181105-113719_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Always fun seeing the southern Plains get more snow first than any point in the Northeast.
 
Loop last 4 hrs.
 
Take a look at the snowfall total reports. Basically more snow has fallen in some areas of Nebraska & Kansas than Caribou, Maine and International Falls, MN so far. 4-12"

f45W5V2.gif
 

Wichita, Kansas
 
DrfnQFiUcAAZzwb.jpg
 
 McPherson County, Kansas
 
DrfIYGWU4AAoFvM.jpg
 
 
 

Max, Nebraska

DrfkHDUV4AAULor.jpg
 
 

Snow covered roads in Nebraska in pink
 
DrfMyW2UwAAHbQA.jpg

 

Edited by NorEaster27
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Looking good in the central and southern plains for widespread snow and some deep early season cold to follow, definitely starting to feel like Winter in the middle of the country.

Quote

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EST Thu Nov 08 2018

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 08 2018 - 12Z Sun Nov 11 2018

...Central Plains...

Day 1...

Shortwave trough will move overhead the Central Plains today in
conjunction with the left exit region of a 120kt 300mb jet streak.
Low-to-mid level flow will initially be from the SW, causing an
increase in 1000-500mb relative humidity before the 700mb trough
axis shifts east of the region. Strengthening 850-600mb
frontogenesis will occur during a period of 700mb WAA and 500mb
CAA to produce a short duration of intense lift as lapse rates
steepen. There has been a noted southward shift in the heaviest
model QPF/snowfall, paired to the best frontogenesis axis, which
has resulted in a SE shift in the highest WPC probabilities for
significant snow. Column temperatures are marginal so SLR's may
end up below climatological normals, which combined with modest
QPF produces just moderate probabilities for 4 inches of snow
across east-central Kansas. Lower probabilities exist elsewhere
into Missouri.

snowpert.PNG

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5 hours ago, NorEaster27 said:

Always fun seeing the southern Plains get more snow first than any point in the Northeast.
 
Loop last 4 hrs.
 
Take a look at the snowfall total reports. Basically more snow has fallen in some areas of Nebraska & Kansas than Caribou, Maine and International Falls, MN so far. 4-12"

f45W5V2.gif
 

Wichita, Kansas
 
DrfnQFiUcAAZzwb.jpg
 
 McPherson County, Kansas
 
DrfIYGWU4AAoFvM.jpg
 
 
 

Max, Nebraska

DrfkHDUV4AAULor.jpg
 
 

Snow covered roads in Nebraska in pink
 
DrfMyW2UwAAHbQA.jpg

 

Nice summary with the pictures. Here's the maximum storm total snowfall that I saw:

Quote

HEAVY SNOW 12.0"
2 NNW STRATTON NE, NE
2018-11-08 13:45:00Z

Even though this was a very localized snow band ... WOW! That's impressive. 

My old stomping grounds of Columbia, MO is expected to get some light accumulations overnight too. Seems like a relatively fast a furious start to the winter season in many places east of the Rockies. 

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It was a total dud here I think it was a combination of two things ground still being to warm and it didn't switch to snow till very late 

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Got some nice returns starting to flare up with the clipper feature moving through. Should whiten things back up for the cold air to filter in. G9nna be cold sitting in a tree tomorrow morning.

 

Screenshot_20181109-152928_RadarScope.thumb.jpg.c67b02f4446b4dda64089951aa995290.jpg

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Quote

Winter Weather Advisory


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1249 PM CST Fri Nov 9 2018

ILZ040-047-049>052-061-066-071-100300-
/O.NEW.KILX.WW.Y.0013.181109T1849Z-181110T0300Z/
Schuyler-Cass-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Shelby-Effingham-
Clay-
Including the cities of Rushville, Beardstown, Winchester,
Jacksonville, Springfield, Taylorville, Shelbyville, Effingham,
and Flora
1249 PM CST Fri Nov 9 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow with brief intense snow showers and gusty winds up
  to 30 mph. Low visibility possible in snow showers. Additional
  snow accumulations of up to one inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central, southeast and west central
  Illinois.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions,
  especially on bridges and overpasses, as well as low
  visibilities. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Illinois can be obtained by
calling 1-800-452-4368.

 

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Quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
323 PM CST Fri Nov 9 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST Fri Nov 9 2018

A winter weather advisory was issued for 9 southwest counties
through 9 pm cst where 1 to 2 inches of snow bands possible, from
Springfield to Effingham southwest. Much of these snow showers to
affect areas from I-74 sw into early evening with scattered
flurries ne of I-74. In addition will have blustery nw winds
gusting in the 20-30 mph range with temperatures slipping below
freezing early this evening. A vigorous short wave was moving from
IA and northern MO into the IL river valley at mid afternoon, and
will track into southeast IL during this evening. Steep low level
lapse rates and CAPES of 100-200 j/kg will help support moderate
bands of snow showers over mainly sw CWA late this afternoon and
early evening hours. Temps were hovering in the lower 30s over
much of central IL while temps have slipped into the mid 30s over
southeast IL with brisk wnw winds 10-20 mph and gusts 20 to 30
mph. These winds were a bit stronger over IA with gusts 30-35 mph
and these strong winds should translate across CWA late this
afternoon and into the evening with temps continue to fall.

Snow showers that shift into southeast IL this evening will
diminish by late evening, with low clouds decreasing from nw to se
later this evening and overnight. Cold lows overnight mostly in
the upper teens, but ranging from the mid teens nw of the IL
river, and lower 20s from I-70 se. This will be approaching record
lows in a few cities like Lincoln where record low is 15F on Nov
10th. In addition blustery nw winds will generate wind chills in
the single digits later this evening and overnight and even
approaching near zero from Lincoln northward.

1036 mb Canadian/arctic high pressure over the central plains will
drift into the mid MS river valley by midday Saturday and provide
a fair amount of sunshine much of the day, lighter winds but cold
temps Saturday. Though clouds to increase over nw CWA during the
mid/late afternoon. Highs Saturday only in the lower 30s over
central IL and mid 30s in southeast IL, so more typical of
January.

 

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Couldn't help but notice that St. Louis is reporting thundersnow with the squall line moving through. Visibility down to 1/2 mile and winds of 21 mph gusting to 38, sounds pretty nasty for 11/9 to be honest.

Conditions at: KSTL (ST. LOUIS , MO, US) observed 0029 UTC 10 November 2018
Temperature: 0.0°C (32°F)
Dewpoint: -1.7°C (29°F) [RH = 88%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.30 inches Hg (1026.2 mb)
Winds: from the NW (310 degrees) at 21 MPH (18 knots; 9.3 m/s)
gusting to 38 MPH (33 knots; 17.0 m/s)
Visibility: 0.50 miles (0.80 km)
Ceiling: 1700 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 500 feet AGL
broken clouds at 1700 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 2400 feet AGL
Weather: -TSSN FG  (light snow associated with thunderstorm(s), fog)

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45 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

We're up to 4.1" of snow thus far, not bad for it only being Nov. 13th.

 

20181113_062042.thumb.jpg.212b6b3279a3099212eda82aad213352.jpg

Wow, a record set back in 1911 was broken yesterday! November 1911 was quite impressive and many of the cold records set on 11/11/1911 still stand more than a century later: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blue_Norther_of_November_11,_1911

Good to see you cashing in so early in the season, hopefully it lasts all winter :6:

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie
  • Like 1

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