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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 15-16, 2018 | East Coast Snow/Ice Storm

Solstice

An open album has been created in the historical weather gallery. Anyone can submit photos there, just to look back on later!

 

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As the first significant interior Northeast wintry storm departs and leaves behind a trof accompanied by very cold temperatures under the control of build high pressure, we look towards the SW Atlantic Ocean, in the area between the northern Bahamas, eastern Florida coast and the Georgia coast, where clouds gather and conspire to initiate cyclogenesis for the next storm that could affect the easternmost areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England (locations to the east of the Appalachian mountain chain). But how would we get to the development of this new storm, you may ask?

Central Atlantic ridge high pressure in control, as its natural with its wind flow, should send moisture-laden winds towards the Bahamas, Cuba and Florida´s east coast offshore areas as a departing trof attempts to drag a decaying cold front through there. As a result, that decaying cold front stalls out and acts as a focusing mechanism to allow for that central Atlantic ridge moisture rich flow, to pile up against the dying stalled out cold front energy, hence leading to low-pressure system cyclogenesis, the one that could become east coast storm special.  As the cyclogenesis progresses, there should a pretty strong blocking high-pressure ridge flexing its muscles over SE Canada. That wall to the north should act to force the storm, along with the warm Gulf stream water energy, to probably deepen relatively well, and eventually turn to the NE or ENE, somewhere to the south of Long Island and out to sea. This scenario would limit the storm`s effects on the areas east of the Appalachian mountains and southern New England as aforementioned earlier.

This possibility has been in my mind for about 3 days not, as I observed the chances of lowering pressures around the northern Bahamas area as a good amount of moisture transported from the south-central Atlantic is sent towards that region. Additionally, often times during this time of year when trofs depart, cold fronts stall out and decay. Mix all that together, and we may get cyclogenesis going.  

Below, an attempt at a descriptive image of the scenario:

613237293_Nov17-20StormScenario.thumb.png.90ede96fc42f0c809fbd9914f90639a6.png

After observing these aspects and concluding it would be a nice possibility to work on, I went ahead to check the ECWMF EPS Ensemble Control MSLP product (last 2 to 3 runs), Long range deterministic ECMWF and the BSR maps, and could not turn a blind eye anymore to the possibility of a storm forming and affecting the easternmost areas of the eastern CONUS coast.

Let´s check, below,  some EPS, ECMWF deterministic and BSR images to lay credence to this thread and possibility.

Nov  07 2018 12Z ECMWF EPS Ensemble Control MSLP:

(Please expand the spoiler function below)

eps_mslp_cont_conus_264.thumb.png.ff184a7ddd5745abb2b0b05ae6df9861.pngeps_mslp_cont_conus_276.thumb.png.2f1d7a11dae08b934e5d4f898b0e9547.png

Spoiler

 

eps_mslp_cont_conus_288.thumb.png.343f3387b1c298b2a6715e93d757782a.png

eps_mslp_cont_conus_300.thumb.png.d4618df3fbde9d3abd125fcee3f5e9cd.png

eps_mslp_cont_conus_312.thumb.png.65a566c8582e840d7ab2f49043e0f147.png

eps_mslp_cont_conus_324.thumb.png.bbbf3d2b6b2263889d4d81a50b06ce03.png

 

 

 

 

Nov 08 2018 00Z ECMWF EPS Ensemble Control MSLP:

(Please expand the spoiler function below)

eps_mslp_cont_conus_216.thumb.png.e9195875e4dbf4f28f6a0e50d41a6d0c.pngeps_mslp_cont_conus_228.thumb.png.645b37ccb82bdef668937656285e4a1a.png

Spoiler

 

eps_mslp_cont_conus_252.thumb.png.e3b120ce150780298d6dc62988fe6617.png

914113863_eps_mslp_cont_conus_264(1).thumb.png.284fbefd3689b602aac36f7adcb1f045.png

1033546611_eps_mslp_cont_conus_276(1).thumb.png.a8cff5301f2d6cde06ed0f79b229c0c1.png

1789441327_eps_mslp_cont_conus_288(1).thumb.png.4bd7c00022d328a0415bb4d27c7a554d.png

1297571117_eps_mslp_cont_conus_300(1).thumb.png.913d092eb140faf50af108b97bc854d1.png

 

 

 

Bearing Sea Rule Depiction:

(Please expand the spoiler function below)

18_1118-00.gif.605c59f54628080d52e4516ace62c8b7.gif18_1118-12.gif.ff6da52b4cce0fc023e22eb59b4b1df2.gif

Spoiler

 

18_1119-00.gif.c5ae6e4a1f2608ce5e826e993c68a825.gif

18_1119-12.gif.ad44c9d8e145b014c689d150093a3b44.gif

18_1120-00.gif.7c5d8dcd08f5a318d73d8ab3a2b55e63.gif

18_1120-12.gif.dd01e08a646630cdf5fb4a9631b2fa9b.gif

 

 

Nov 8 2018 00Z ECMWF :

(Please expand the spoiler function below)

giphy-downsized-large.gif

 

NOTE:

There is the chance that this storm if ever occurs, could be a subtropical cyclone.  If that becomes the case, this thread will be moved to the Atlantic tropical section.

 

Please discuss as always. Let´s hear your thoughts and opinions. Have fun tracking!

 

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12Z ECMWF is trying to go on with the cyclogenesis over eastern Florida about 1 to 2 days earlier.

Let´s see when it enters the thread´s region to see which date that will be.

But at any rate, this threat is starting to get decent support for the storm.

It may even bring snow... We will see.

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1 minute ago, Phased Vort said:

12Z ECMWF is trying to go on with the cyclogenesis over eastern Florida about 1 to 2 days earlier.

Let´s see when it enters the thread´s region to see which date that will be.

But at any rate, this threat is starting to get decent support for the storm.

It may even bring snow... We will see.

This one could benefit from a fresh high pressure to the north and recent blanket of cold air in place.

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Man, oh man....

12Z ECMWF is trying to be very naughty... hitting at a scary phasing scenario....

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Here is a gif of the part of run concerning this storm potential.

giphy.gif

 

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Nov 2nd Storm: Rain

Nov 9th Storm: Rain

Nov 13th Storm: Rain

Nov 16-17 Storm: Hmmm.
 
Euro12z 
 
Purple line is the freezing line at 5000'. 
 
Zh923fN.jpg

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In viewing the 4 panel charts and focusing only on H5, I don't see this as being all that tropical. Most of the energy swings in from the southern aspect of the long wave trough which then combines with weak energy along the coast (that does appear to be coming from the deeper trops). 

Even if it is hybrid, it should remain here and not in trop section. We would not have broken Sandy out in the trop sections. 

PURELY for S&G though and a hearty guffaw from me...

 

Capture.PNG.dc17b96476b84d6d8d7bd65606bb9912.PNG

 

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@Phased Vort Pretty run to look at, but I need run-to-run consistency and GFS/FV-3 support before I start to buy in. Now, we know there will be a storm. As usual at this lead time, however, we don't know where, or what kind, not yet.

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38 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

In viewing the 4 panel charts and focusing only on H5, I don't see this as being all that tropical. Most of the energy swings in from the southern aspect of the long wave trough which then combines with weak energy along the coast (that does appear to be coming from the deeper trops). 

Even if it is hybrid, it should remain here and not in trop section. We would not have broken Sandy out in the trop sections. 

PURELY for S&G though and a hearty guffaw from me...

 

Capture.PNG.dc17b96476b84d6d8d7bd65606bb9912.PNG

 

I hear you @UTSwiinii .

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4 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

 

As the first significant interior Northeast wintry storm departs and leaves behind a trof accompanied by very cold temperatures under the control of build high pressure, we look towards the SW Atlantic Ocean, in the area between the northern Bahamas, eastern Florida coast and the Georgia coast, where clouds gather and conspire to initiate cyclogenesis for the next storm that could affect the easternmost areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England (locations to the east of the Appalachian mountain chain). But how would we get to the development of this new storm, you may ask?

Central Atlantic ridge high pressure in control, as its natural with its wind flow, should send moisture-laden winds towards the Bahamas, Cuba and Florida´s east coast offshore areas as a departing trof attempts to drag a decaying cold front through there. As a result, that decaying cold front stalls out and acts as a focusing mechanism to allow for that central Atlantic ridge moisture rich flow, to pile up against the dying stalled out cold front energy, hence leading to low-pressure system cyclogenesis, the one that could become east coast storm special.  As the cyclogenesis progresses, there should a pretty strong blocking high-pressure ridge flexing its muscles over SE Canada. That wall to the north should act to force the storm, along with the warm Gulf stream water energy, to probably deepen relatively well, and eventually turn to the NE or ENE, somewhere to the south of Long Island and out to sea. This scenario would limit the storm`s effects on the areas east of the Appalachian mountains and southern New England as aforementioned earlier.

This possibility has been in my mind for about 3 days not, as I observed the chances of lowering pressures around the northern Bahamas area as a good amount of moisture transported from the south-central Atlantic is sent towards that region. Additionally, often times during this time of year when trofs depart, cold fronts stall out and decay. Mix all that together, and we may get cyclogenesis going.  

Below, an attempt at a descriptive image of the scenario:

613237293_Nov17-20StormScenario.thumb.png.90ede96fc42f0c809fbd9914f90639a6.png

After observing these aspects and concluding it would be a nice possibility to work on, I went ahead to check the ECWMF EPS Ensemble Control MSLP product (last 2 to 3 runs), Long range deterministic ECMWF and the BSR maps, and could not turn a blind eye anymore to the possibility of a storm forming and affecting the easternmost areas of the eastern CONUS coast.

Let´s check, below,  some EPS, ECMWF deterministic and BSR images to lay credence to this thread and possibility.

Nov  07 2018 12Z ECMWF EPS Ensemble Control MSLP:

(Please expand the spoiler function below)

eps_mslp_cont_conus_264.thumb.png.ff184a7ddd5745abb2b0b05ae6df9861.pngeps_mslp_cont_conus_276.thumb.png.2f1d7a11dae08b934e5d4f898b0e9547.png

  Reveal hidden contents

 

eps_mslp_cont_conus_288.thumb.png.343f3387b1c298b2a6715e93d757782a.png

eps_mslp_cont_conus_300.thumb.png.d4618df3fbde9d3abd125fcee3f5e9cd.png

eps_mslp_cont_conus_312.thumb.png.65a566c8582e840d7ab2f49043e0f147.png

eps_mslp_cont_conus_324.thumb.png.bbbf3d2b6b2263889d4d81a50b06ce03.png

 

 

 

 

Nov 08 2018 00Z ECMWF EPS Ensemble Control MSLP:

(Please expand the spoiler function below)

eps_mslp_cont_conus_216.thumb.png.e9195875e4dbf4f28f6a0e50d41a6d0c.pngeps_mslp_cont_conus_228.thumb.png.645b37ccb82bdef668937656285e4a1a.png

  Hide contents

 

eps_mslp_cont_conus_252.thumb.png.e3b120ce150780298d6dc62988fe6617.png

914113863_eps_mslp_cont_conus_264(1).thumb.png.284fbefd3689b602aac36f7adcb1f045.png

1033546611_eps_mslp_cont_conus_276(1).thumb.png.a8cff5301f2d6cde06ed0f79b229c0c1.png

1789441327_eps_mslp_cont_conus_288(1).thumb.png.4bd7c00022d328a0415bb4d27c7a554d.png

1297571117_eps_mslp_cont_conus_300(1).thumb.png.913d092eb140faf50af108b97bc854d1.png

 

 

 

Bearing Sea Rule Depiction:

(Please expand the spoiler function below)

18_1118-00.gif.605c59f54628080d52e4516ace62c8b7.gif18_1118-12.gif.ff6da52b4cce0fc023e22eb59b4b1df2.gif

  Hide contents

 

18_1119-00.gif.c5ae6e4a1f2608ce5e826e993c68a825.gif

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18_1120-00.gif.7c5d8dcd08f5a318d73d8ab3a2b55e63.gif

18_1120-12.gif.dd01e08a646630cdf5fb4a9631b2fa9b.gif

 

 

Nov 8 2018 00Z ECMWF :

(Please expand the spoiler function below)

giphy-downsized-large.gif

 

NOTE:

There is the chance that this storm if ever occurs, could be a subtropical cyclone.  If that becomes the case, this thread will be moved to the Atlantic tropical section.

 

Please discuss as always. Let´s hear your thoughts and opinions. Have fun tracking!

 

I really enjoyed your initial post, well done! Thanks for that:forumsmiley1392-1:

Here are a few things I'm thinking about assuming something close to the scenario you described materializes:

1) Antecedent snow cover across the northeast? Could be important for assessing storm track and magnitude of cold air/frozen p-type threat. 

2) Subtropical moisture plume means heavy precipitation will ensue

3) I'm struck by the slow storm motion depicted by the BSR. The storm loiters near the coast for two days before the next system starts interacting with it, which gives me flashbacks to Hurricane Florence.

Overall, quite intriguing and I'm looking forward to tracking this sucker! 

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32 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

@Phased Vort Pretty run to look at, but I need run-to-run consistency and GFS/FV-3 support before I start to buy in. Now, we know there will be a storm. As usual at this lead time, however, we don't know where, or what kind, not yet.

Interestingly enough, I thought the GFS and V3 were, both, going to "go there" on a couple previous Op runs. About three of the MREF's try something similar but they are "wide right" - not unexpected with GFS

12z MREF

 

 

 

 

eve

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11 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

I really enjoyed your initial post, well done! Thanks for that:forumsmiley1392-1:

Here are a few things I'm thinking about assuming something close to the scenario you described materializes:

1) Antecedent snow cover across the northeast? Could be important for assessing storm track and magnitude of cold air/frozen p-type threat. 

2) Subtropical moisture plume means heavy precipitation will ensue

3) I'm struck by the slow storm motion depicted by the BSR. The storm loiters near the coast for two days before the next system starts interacting with it, which gives me flashbacks to Hurricane Florence.

Overall, quite intriguing and I'm looking forward to tracking this sucker! 

Thanks for the feedback. Appreciated.

Concerning 1), I have noticed that when we have warmer than normal SSTs off the east coast, storms tend to want to track in and around the warmer SSTs.

Opinning on 2), indeed. As long as there´s tropical or subtropical moisture, the storm would be moisture rich.

As for 3), I did get rather glued to that slow motion. The 12Z ECMWF run, although still around 9 days out, did seem to want to replicate that aspect of the storm.

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18z FV3 GFS:

What a complex dance there.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh198-276.gif.48cda498cb5579eeca1cb51f51aa3c2b.gif

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25 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

18z FV3 GFS:

What a complex dance there.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh198-276.gif.48cda498cb5579eeca1cb51f51aa3c2b.gif

Another run that nearly went the same way Euro did - with timing differences as we should expect at this much lead. Progressive bias of the GFS showing, not allowing for the two pieces to mesh. 

At some point, I would expect the law of averages to see to it that one (or more?) of these "dances" become more in concert - could lead to impressive results.  

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1 hour ago, UTSwiinii said:

Another run that nearly went the same way Euro did - with timing differences as we should expect at this much lead. Progressive bias of the GFS showing, not allowing for the two pieces to mesh. 

At some point, I would expect the law of averages to see to it that one (or more?) of these "dances" become more in concert - could lead to impressive results.  

Yea, Got think of that GFS progressiveness distracting the model.

There´s the idea of a very slow progression northeastward as well hinted by the BSR, likely a result from a strong ridge to the north.

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00Z runs did not gather the SW Atlantic moisture in an organized enough fashion to develop a storm. In other words, they more or less showed flat solutions.

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Just now, Phased Vort said:

00Z runs did not gather the SW Atlantic moisture in an organized enough fashion to develop a storm. In other words, they more or less showed flat solutions.

However, the 00Z ECMWF EPS Ensemble Control MSLP, continues to say this storm will develop.

giphy.gif

 

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Today´s 12Z ECMWF run still shows the possibility.

However, this run does appear to show that the moisture going towards the SE US, is from an actual tropical wave that is trying to develop.

On the latter frames, there seems to be a very late attempt of a phase with a clipper tracking towards SE NY sate.

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The 00z NAM has tipped me off to the origin of this storm ... a potentially large chunk of energy left behind by the northern stream. There's no way the entire ribbon of energy extending from the corner of Texas into the Great Lakes is leaving the country in one piece. Once the energy is cut off from the northern stream it makes sense that the leftovers will move slowly and suck up a boatload of subtropical moisture until the next storm moves in stage left. 

11-10 00z NAM 500 mb h84.png

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie
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00Z ECMWF still there trying to reproduce the EPS Control MSLP idea from 12Z yesterday and the BSR.

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Really, really would love to see one of these blow up before or around Tgives. With the temp pattern we're in, we'd be in historically *great* shape for pre Dec 1.

Edited by 90sBlizzards
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00Z ECMWF EPS Ensemble Control MSLP, still develops de storm.

At first, there´s a development attempt early in the thread´s time period. Then, the second development occurs towards the end of the thread´s time period.

 

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A very complex situation this one is, folks.

We have a tropical cyclone, and the extra-tropical storm, leftover energy for another extra-tropical storm and an incoming trof that could make things a bit more enhanced, let´s say.

That´s what the 12Z GFS has for us.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh120-192.gif.b7cf41c5765abdde10edb8b35c781908.gifgfs_z500_vort_us_fh120-192.gif.188aaece5f88cb7dc2bdb23dfa9f17a4.gif

 

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@Phased Vort Yeah,  lot of different energies at play. 12z isn't that far from something pretty interesting...and with a lead time of 6-8 days, there's plenty of time for this to become very interesting indeed.

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