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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 15-16, 2018 | East Coast Snow/Ice Storm

Solstice

An open album has been created in the historical weather gallery. Anyone can submit photos there, just to look back on later!

 

Message added by Solstice

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1 hour ago, Maureen said:

I am always here.....alwaaays......

Zoinks!!

image.png.ba583e0a5382d27f81929fc74d660766.png

One last page topper....Boom.....not gonna earn it....

 

Knock Knock
Whos there?
Scooby
Scooby who?
No... Scooby Doo

Edited by Miller A
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3 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Rather than clobber this thread with images, I posted all the snow maps I had from the 0z run on 11-14 in a blog  11-15 storm results.   Also put up a poll as to which model did the best, only including models that were remotely close.

Personal opinion is that Euro blew everyone away from that far out.  The differences between 10:1, Kuchera and Cobb weren't that great, but I'd give it to the 10:1.

I'll bump this later in the day for those who didn't see it.

Bump to next page 

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2 hours ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

I'm not sure how PennDot out east works, but we worked from 7 am till 10 Wednesday night getting everything ready, and switched to 24 hour coverage (dual shifts) on Thursday.  Every truck in the county was on the road barring breakdowns.  Roads were horrible, but passable.  Most issues that caused bottlenecks are caused by trucks (empty or with poor tires), and passenger vehicles that have summer tread on them.  Pushed 2 vehicles stuck around me out that were AWD, but had useless tires.  The public has some responsibility to be ready for what comes as well.  

I appreciate your comments. I do agree with the public having some responsibility. It was crazy and many routes in my area were shut down.

I was out from the start in my area and in the past, PENNDOT trucks were always visible from the start. Yesterday was an exception. I saw not a one. Their yellow lights are easily visible that's how I know.

In the past, I don't care if it's 1 or 2" predicted or 2 feet, they were out at the onset, or staged ready to go. Then when snow would start , salt and or anti-skid material was spread on the roads. This procedure was NOT followed yesterday. Drivers did not stand a chance. The reason I know that something went wrong is because there are a lot of long, gradual hills around these parts and nothing was laid down in those historical trouble spots.

As you know, it doesn't take but a few cars to skid off the road, then other cars stop, and the mess begins.

 

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Snowing again.

813790663_GYX_loop(9).gif.218ea2057c56029911e6e9595224ca88.gif

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Komatsu to the rescue. It's all about not getting caged in which happened at my house in 2007-2008 and it was bad logistically.

Interested to see the snow totals from the hot spot of banding between Caribou and Presque Isle. We're at two feet plus for the season thus far (North of Caribou). It's shaping up to be a wild one. 

 

IMG_20181116_162724.jpg

rs_kcbw_172dt_1542412423.png

Edited by mainiac
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We broke two daily snowfall records from this storm at Binghamton:  yesterday's 6.1 inches replaced a record of 4.0 from 1995, and today's four inches eclipsed the one from eleven and nineteen years ago--a mere 1.8 inches. We already have 14.8 inches for the month, which is already ninth place on the list of all-time snowiest Novembers. We have an 80 percent chance to reach 20 inches, but the all-time record of 33 inches (from 1995) will be a difficult one to reach. Who knows, though?! As far as overall precipitation, we are already over four inches, with the month barely half over. We are on pace to break the all-time record of about seven and a half inches, from 1972. Fortunately, though, we are looking at a calmer regime. We urgently need to dry out because we have had one storm after another since mid-July. 

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20 years of driving and living where I live, i've never experienced what happened to our roads.  Was total anarchy and chaos!  My snowfall total just before the change over to sleet was 5.8 inches in Little Ferry, NJ.  

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1 hour ago, RickRD said:

I appreciate your comments. I do agree with the public having some responsibility. It was crazy and many routes in my area were shut down.

I was out from the start in my area and in the past, PENNDOT trucks were always visible from the start. Yesterday was an exception. I saw not a one. Their yellow lights are easily visible that's how I know.

In the past, I don't care if it's 1 or 2" predicted or 2 feet, they were out at the onset, or staged ready to go. Then when snow would start , salt and or anti-skid material was spread on the roads. This procedure was NOT followed yesterday. Drivers did not stand a chance. The reason I know that something went wrong is because there are a lot of long, gradual hills around these parts and nothing was laid down in those historical trouble spots.

As you know, it doesn't take but a few cars to skid off the road, then other cars stop, and the mess begins.

 

We typically go into winter mode and stay there after the middle of November, spreaders stay on and we stay on dual shifts until March. Farther east where winter can be more transient, usually shifts are as needed, and a lot more non winter work is performed.  I'd be curious as to what the story is, and if anything comes out of this.  I dont really defend Penndot as I see lots of questionable decisions in my 8 years, but a lot of people dont see behind the scenes how difficult it is either.    

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53 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

We typically go into winter mode and stay there after the middle of November, spreaders stay on and we stay on dual shifts until March. Farther east where winter can be more transient, usually shifts are as needed, and a lot more non winter work is performed.  I'd be curious as to what the story is, and if anything comes out of this.  I dont really defend Penndot as I see lots of questionable decisions in my 8 years, but a lot of people dont see behind the scenes how difficult it is either.    

My whole thing is this, no one area was spared, instead a whole geographical was hit, PA, NJ, NY took lumps from mother nature. Our government officials are quick to point fingers but honestly, it was mother nature doing her thing, even with the best weather models only a very small hand full showed 1-2" hour snowfall from 2pm to 8pm in the megalopolis (which normally would be considered rouge, and if played out not fleet / gang of plow trucks can keep up with)  Each state has the public fighting / finger pointing about who said who, how much preparedness or precaution was taken, my problem with that is the fact that mother nature threw a curve ball and it wasn't like one state or one city was caught with there pants down, it was 3 states at nearly the same time.  

Now to use nerds here on this board and to the ones that have not discovered this oasis yet (future nerds) yes we saw that this storm was different, but there was initially only a slight chance of this being different and much harsher (to our liking, in which we held every severe model as gospel) but that's not reality to official reporting / forecasting stations, so many times at AW I saw different projections that sunk faster then the titanic, I feel as though our nws members while conservative did a decent job, frustrating for us yes, but we are only a small percentage in the big tank of life, nws people have the power to pull the real public alert trigger and they held fast like a submarine captain holding a course against the Russians.. good for them actually.

I think this early storm was a learning experience for everyone affected, to those that would argue sun glare, to our state leaders that held they're breath when they realized mother nature took over an no amount of announcements were going to make things better, to us that reported the fire earlier on but were never taken serious, everyone walked away with something.   

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7 hours ago, MDBlueRidge said:

This was a fun one. Thanks to all for your contributions. Nice cool day again today. Got to 32.8F setting the stage for a serious sledding night in the neighborhood. 

On to the next... 

How much did you get up there MDBR? I'm playing catchup so I have no clue what happened including w/ the boards. I do know that we all "blew" it but when I checked in at 745am I expected that. I'm mad at myself for not taking the downstream clues I mentioned a few days prior more seriously,

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1 hour ago, KENNYP2339 said:

My whole thing is this, no one area was spared, instead a whole geographical was hit, PA, NJ, NY took lumps from mother nature. Our government officials are quick to point fingers but honestly, it was mother nature doing her thing, even with the best weather models only a very small hand full showed 1-2" hour snowfall from 2pm to 8pm in the megalopolis (which normally would be considered rouge, and if played out not fleet / gang of plow trucks can keep up with)  Each state has the public fighting / finger pointing about who said who, how much preparedness or precaution was taken, my problem with that is the fact that mother nature threw a curve ball and it wasn't like one state or one city was caught with there pants down, it was 3 states at nearly the same time.  

Now to use nerds here on this board and to the ones that have not discovered this oasis yet (future nerds) yes we saw that this storm was different, but there was initially only a slight chance of this being different and much harsher (to our liking, in which we held every severe model as gospel) but that's not reality to official reporting / forecasting stations, so many times at AW I saw different projections that sunk faster then the titanic, I feel as though our nws members while conservative did a decent job, frustrating for us yes, but we are only a small percentage in the big tank of life, nws people have the power to pull the real public alert trigger and they held fast like a submarine captain holding a course against the Russians.. good for them actually.

I think this early storm was a learning experience for everyone affected, to those that would argue sun glare, to our state leaders that held they're breath when they realized mother nature took over an no amount of announcements were going to make things better, to us that reported the fire earlier on but were never taken serious, everyone walked away with something.   

Gotta speak for my brother's in the silent service. lol

fcd3e915fb833524caaebd321e14799b.jpg

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10 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Bump to next page 

So, the corncern people had that the EURO snow maps where overdone because it counted all as snow and ignored the sleet and freezing rain, where misplaced or not needed, correct. Is that what I understand, @StretchCT

It ssems that the ECMWF did pretty well with the maps when comparing to the actual snowfall map @NorEaster27 posted.

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An additional 0.5" fell yesterday evening, bringing the total IMBY to 6.5"

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As unfortunate as the loss of life from this storm was (and the absolute chaos in and around NYC), it will probably serve to save lives in the future. This was so large scale that it definitely pulled in more attention than ever to what I was complaining about the day before the storm. 

I've been reading some reports and listening to some things on tv and some of the most experience meteorologists who write up long ranges for the NWS and other agencies are predicted this to just not end. Especially in the Northeast. Since we could be looking at numerous events of this scale and larger, perhaps starting off with a lesson learned wasn't the worst thing. 8-10+ deaths definitely was avoidable, however and the only thing to make it so they weren't lost in complete vein is to make sure that improvements and learning come from this experience. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards

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17 hours ago, Miller A said:

Simply deleting your posts would have easily taken 20 pages off.  LOL

I remember seeing you at 173 posts at some point and now you are up to 303.

Congrats on beating the drum and sticking to it!!  The models did show it, but no one else, pro or amateur took the bait

:-) Thanks, man. As I've made pretty clear here: I'm just an amateur. There are so many synoptic details that many of you know as to which I am completely ignorant to. As said, I do know a little though and I've been in this area for every winter of my life. With temps that cold ahead of the storm, and basically a true arctic airmass centered over New England/Eastern Canada, I had seen this setup numerous times. Warm air aloft is said to cause mixing issues and it never does. As many have pointed out on TWC, being even slightly off with precip type and duration is going to lead to huge errors when dealing with 1-2"/hr+ snowfall rates. As seen in NYC - It doesn't take very long with that kind of snow sticking to make the roads impassable when it's in the 20's. If you recall, I made a post when the snow started saying that my temps dropped 3 degrees almost immediately. At the same time, temps dropped 2-4 degrees in the NYC area. Right there, I said "this is a crush job" and the NWS realized it, too but it was too late. The warnings were issued as people were just starting to leave work and the storm reached it's height there during the peak of rush hour. Don't be surprised to see several rush hours like this in '18-'19. 

All of that said - this was an outlier event. Still, some pro mets are stating that absolutely no models showed this and that's simply not true. Every model showed something similar to this but the GFS and the pros just choose to throw them out because "It's only November". Hopefully, some of them have learned that once you get into October in the Northeast, this is possible. If it's 25 degrees, dry air in place, and a storm is coming with that much precip, riding climatology and seasonal trends, while ignoring the obvious, is a recipe for disaster. Amateurs like me forecast the storm better than them because the same factors that complicated them into making the wrong call, are factors I'm oblivious to. Sometimes, just keeping it simple and focusing on model trends is enough. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards

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14 hours ago, Psu1313 said:

How much did you get up there MDBR? I'm playing catchup so I have no clue what happened including w/ the boards. I do know that we all "blew" it but when I checked in at 745am I expected that. I'm mad at myself for not taking the downstream clues I mentioned a few days prior more seriously,

10.75" snow

3/10" of ice

Last picture is of all the ice falling from the trees in the ground. We have a home across the street we rent on airbnb and people currently staying are from NYC. They thought the weather in MD would be warmer. Haha haha not here. The ones who aren't weather nerds are always surprised. 

 

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1117181234b.jpg

Edited by MDBlueRidge
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18 hours ago, mainiac said:

Komatsu to the rescue. It's all about not getting caged in which happened at my house in 2007-2008 and it was bad logistically.

Interested to see the snow totals from the hot spot of banding between Caribou and Presque Isle. We're at two feet plus for the season thus far (North of Caribou). It's shaping up to be a wild one. 

 

IMG_20181116_162724.jpg

rs_kcbw_172dt_1542412423.png

Oh man got serious up in the artic circle! 

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23 hours ago, Stxprowl said:

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Well call me a sucker lol quite a bit more impressive then thought. Cant believe the snow actually ended up fluffy considering the temp profiles aloft. Very much more thumpy than model numbers projected and the lack of lowering ratios sure helped those totals. With how quickly the onset started from going to sleet/snow to all out white out in a matter of a half hour was impressive to watch. By 11am seeing that totals were already over an inch knew philly was not the right choice and even getting around town was just flat out horrible. 

Funny how I saw Maryland preparing even before the advisories and warnings went out just gotta prepare in PA, doesnt help the state seems to  barely gets funding to fix/maintain anything. There was that chance that temps stayed colder longer and well it sure did happen precip lightened up then temps flooded the region but the damage was already done. Looks like we will have to start considering certain aspects a little more so. Would hate to see it shift to the other end of the spectrum because of this and the same happens just opposite (forecast more get less due to the same type of setup) but looks like we have to fine tune things a little better. Hope all got around safe 

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Finally got around to it!

 

48hr Loop in 15 seconds!

 

4am November 14 to 1pm November 16

 

Orange lines are the 500mb Upper heights.

 

Couple times I missed an hour or so. (I do sleep and did get stuck in road chaos)

 

Sped up to save as GIF.

 

Wy6PtCd.gif

 

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Finished with 9.5" with the official NWS season total of 24.2". It really looks and feels like winter. 

 

 

 

IMG_20181117_160856.jpg

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3 hours ago, mainiac said:

Finished with 9.5" with the official NWS season total of 24.2". It really looks and feels like winter. 

 

 

 

IMG_20181117_160856.jpg

 

Absolutely gorgeous photo. Thanks. 

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What a disaster it was here in NYC

Took me an hour and half to get home which normally takes half hour from work

No one was ready for this

I got 5 inches

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3 hours ago, Snow11 said:

What a disaster it was here in NYC

Took me an hour and half to get home which normally takes half hour from work

No one was ready for this

I got 5 inches

FAIR WARNING. THERE IS CURSING IN THE VIDEO POSTED. 

IMG6479997213469576006.jpg

IMG2197246096111343315.jpg

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Im late to this forum but ill post anyway...I got 1.75 inches of snow in sparrows point md. From this system

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