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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 15-16, 2018 | East Coast Snow/Ice Storm

Solstice

An open album has been created in the historical weather gallery. Anyone can submit photos there, just to look back on later!

 

Message added by Solstice

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12Z ECMWF coming in more threatening.

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1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Do we have maps?? Lol

Pretty decent run.

giphy.gif

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EPS and its crazy run

1276523845_VideoConverterUltimate_20181110162143.gif.5e7ee69eb4b80191c4182dc8f6fb107a.gif

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Potential is here for a widespread event...maybe a bit higher for our eastern friends. We shall see.

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From the last map, looks like the dates are pushed out a couple of days. Is that what you're seeing?

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Something is going to happen. Leftover energy from one trough, a second trough descending from the Midwest, cyclone off the SE coast. This is 0z next Friday.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_22.png

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image.thumb.png.a32546c5555d5bc040dbf4c7eb2632e0.png

146814550_snobalonsnowmaps.PNG.a89fb71fbd471ed74ba7520f99e31347.PNG

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3 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

image.thumb.png.a32546c5555d5bc040dbf4c7eb2632e0.png

146814550_snobalonsnowmaps.PNG.a89fb71fbd471ed74ba7520f99e31347.PNG

tumblr_ofq03w4AU81qmob6ro1_500.gif.497e0395aac3b775b0d477ce990d9601.gif

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12Z ECMWF EPS Control MSLP:

giphy.gif

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HMM... not liking the look of that large area of freezing rain for next Friday(11/16). YUK!!!

image.png.c4629a379bc37f41ed69b1b16b10c73b.png

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10 minutes ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

HMM... not liking the look of that large area of freezing rain for next Friday(11/16). YUK!!!

image.png.c4629a379bc37f41ed69b1b16b10c73b.png

I looked at some soundings and they are marginal rain/snow soundings. Since they are in the NW quadrant of the storm I suspect there could be dynamically generated cold air that would result in snow where precipitation rates are higher. Purely conjecture given the magnitude of model waffling at this point, but this type of storm track fits 'the pattern' better than previous solutions. 

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie
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This is starting to look compelling.

Especially being in the 6 day time frame, at least on the GFS.

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CMC is on the Zr band wagon also.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh126-132.gif

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4 minutes ago, Wx_WhatWX? said:

CMC is on the Zr band wagon also.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh126-132.gif

Yea.

I started this thread because I really thought we had a chance of getting a storm from the setup I explained in my thread opener, even though I always know that things may not come together and end up having no storm at all.

But now, I´m getting more confident that this storm may actually come out of the virtual world and manifest itself on to the real world.

And it may actually, if things really work out, be the first wintry storm for the coastal areas or just inland.

 

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The high pressure bugs me again on this one, again.  The H drops out of Canada tomorrow, and is responsible for the cold on the backside of Tuesday’s storm. It weakens and then leads this storm moving sw to ne. That’s not a fresh high by any means. This is per the GFS.  Even later in the season it would bother me.  

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Even the 00Z ICON has the storm affecting the region.

Does not show any frozen precipitation yet.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh117-156.gif.ef4bd5e36fd73ee2ad9fbc13d59b5742.gif

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1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

The high pressure bugs me again on this one, again.  The H drops out of Canada tomorrow, and is responsible for the cold on the backside of Tuesday’s storm. It weakens and then leads this storm moving sw to ne. That’s not a fresh high by any means. This is per the GFS.  Even later in the season it would bother me.  

It´s indeed not an ideal situation for locking colder air in place, for sure.

Let´s see how this high pressure evolves during the next days.

The ice appearing on the GGEM and GFS, may be a directly related result of your high-pressure placement observation.

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7 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Yea.

I started this thread because I really thought we had a chance of getting a storm from the setup I explained in my thread opener, even though I always know that things may not come together and end up having no storm at all.

But now, I´m getting more confident that this storm may actually come out of the virtual world and manifest itself on to the real world.

And it may actually, if things really work out, be the first wintry storm for the coastal areas or just inland.

 

Yeah, this one has to be watched. The timing for Friday morning(7:00 a.m.) as it is showing now could be a real mess for the morning commuters. 

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?
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This one kinda snuck up on me lol

The European has a very similar track as it does for the mon/tue system, through nj and northeast from there, ggem model is slightly west and warmer while the two american models show this east..

Obviously have to get through the first system before we can worry about this one..

This system may interrupt the potential for lake effect snow as the original forecast was for LES wed through friday..

Let the fun begin!!

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3 hours ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

This one kinda snuck up on me lol

The European has a very similar track as it does for the mon/tue system, through nj and northeast from there, ggem model is slightly west and warmer while the two american models show this east..

Obviously have to get through the first system before we can worry about this one..

This system may interrupt the potential for lake effect snow as the original forecast was for LES wed through friday..

Let the fun begin!!

Snuck up on me as well!  For this system only.  00z runs of gfs and euro 

34DB8269-9957-4F18-8DBD-755729E32C14.png

201BB211-ADF5-4888-A4D2-5C79A3BAE52C.png

Edited by PA road DAWG

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GFS trending a bit faster...and it seems like a great signature for widespread yuck (ice, sleet, wet snow, white rain). 

 

And, inevitably, when I have to drive to work.

 

EDIT: Perhaps even more interesting is that the NAM, FWIW at this range, cuts off the incoming energy. 500mb chart, hour 84:

 

namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png

Edited by TheDayAfterTommorow

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