Jump to content
Search In
  • More options...
Find results that contain...
Find results in...
White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 15-16, 2018 | East Coast Snow/Ice Storm

Solstice

An open album has been created in the historical weather gallery. Anyone can submit photos there, just to look back on later!

 

Message added by Solstice

Staff Recommended Posts

Quote

Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1055 AM EST Sun Nov 11 2018 Valid 12Z Wed Nov 14 2018 - 12Z Sun Nov 18 2018

16Z Update:

The main forecast challenge during the medium range period is the evolve and speed of the southern stream closed low over the southern plains, beginning Wednesday morning. The 6Z GFS and the 6Z GEFS mean are about 250 miles east of the UKMET/ECMWF/CMC/EC mean solutions at that time, and these differences become greater by Friday morning as this feature reaches the East Coast, with the GFS ahead of the GEFS mean by Thursday morning. The 00Z GFS, while still faster than the model consensus, is not quick as progressive and depicts a more reasonable solution. Given the greater model agreement on a slower track, more weighting was given to this scenario in the WPC forecast, with only a small percentage of the 00Z GFS being incorporated and no 6Z GFS. There has also been a trend for a stronger East Coast surface low by the end of the week compared to earlier model guidance, and the latest WPC forecast reflects that.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Current pattern good for storms, not great for synoptic snows. Dual core lps with one being over the lakes loaded with waa, especially this early in season is a deal breaker.

think maybe we can push the pattern and squeeze some white out if it the further we head into November 

Plenty of signaling left from the 20th-1st. Count three separate chances if this doesn’t evolve 

imho we need the Atlantic to block up and rise the heights downstream, wavespacing a tad too close for any significant North Atlantic block to form. Don’t necessarily need high latitude blocking or a -nao.  Just something to pump the heights along the Atlantic coast a bit more. 

 

Edited by Poconosnow
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

00Z EPS Control MSLP:

giphy.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the 12Z EMWF run may turn out to be a very interesting run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKie with a 22mb drop in 24 hours

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif.1ce3c5b17888b43d72779a09d3950804.gif

891914204_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000(1).gif.b12f30882811e20f27916af76b9dc15c.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

990mb low just south of NYC.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

giphy.gif

Verbatim - time of day for precip (in addition to elevation and inland aspect) could make for wintery surprise along and to the west of the front range Apps. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z GFS ensemble mean

1J7cvKe.png

Still too warm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z EPS mean

U4u7GYl.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NAVGEM is oddly slower.  Otherwise same idea.

aETvM72.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JMA keeps it further south and kicks it east. 

Fik7fnH.png

  • Wow! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Poconosnow said:

Go icon go 🤣

 

A9F2CEC4-B7F8-425A-8149-A3AF7A4CF2B0.gif

I believe!

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z fv3 too 152C330C-C8CA-4983-874A-3F54E77F9883.thumb.png.4eda8a2336e0b46dda6331019bddfa74.png

these solutions don’t close the left over energy left behind at h5 and essentially allow it to smack into a bunch of confluence which allows the setup to hold off any waa.

seeing that this particular solution is predicated on a large amount of CAD  and not synoptically based on any specific trigger it’s hard to believe  unfortunately 

But it’s fun to weenie out on 😝

Edited by Poconosnow
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

18z fv3 too 152C330C-C8CA-4983-874A-3F54E77F9883.thumb.png.4eda8a2336e0b46dda6331019bddfa74.png

these solutions don’t close the left over energy left behind at h5 and essentially allow it to smack into a bunch of confluence which allows the setup to hold off any waa.

seeing that this particular solution is predicated on a large amount of CAD  and not synoptically based on any specific trigger it’s hard to believe  unfortunately 

But it’s fun to weenie out on 😝

Also possible factor is because  it  seems to time as happening at night - CAD could hold stronger than if during daylight hours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z nav basically puts the above runs in check and continues to show a large broad dual lp that runs the coast, far too warm of a profile for any snow on nav 

 

E0140D67-5976-4B10-A7E3-15C33F2EAAE9.thumb.png.ed6631ccd9857e0d5ae48a36c01de5de.png

It doesn’t hold off as much to the north which is the norm given its bias 

As always a middle ground solution is probably the best bet, one where some winter precip is seen on the westward apps and at elevation.  A climatogical sound solution. 

This is an interesting setup, just not one that’s particularly likely to deliver a potent winter storm 

Edited by Poconosnow
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Also possible factor is because  it  seems to time as happening at night - CAD could hold stronger than if during daylight hours.

👍🏼

Im up for some mood flakes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The icon and fv3 gfs were obviously making love before.   I wonder which one will be doing the walk of shame first.....back to reality 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, KDPPatsfan said:

wow

 

1CACB0BC-4826-471A-A4EA-5B1D5FBAAFE2.png.afddca13a9767c4d1e41775c412cf3fe.png

 

3 hours ago, Poconosnow said:

Go icon go 🤣

 

A9F2CEC4-B7F8-425A-8149-A3AF7A4CF2B0.gif

 

3 hours ago, Blizz_ said:

I believe!

Just to complement the information:

icon_acc_snow_eastcoastus_120.thumb.png.9b3ebcd804c686aea53c34b2f2b90d7f.png

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

00z nam introduces a bit more warm air advection

00 icon less confluence and runs the snows up the coast instead of being squashed 

lol 

not sure if long range nam and icon are the best 1,2 punch but weenies out!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×