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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 15-16, 2018 | East Coast Snow/Ice Storm

Solstice

An open album has been created in the historical weather gallery. Anyone can submit photos there, just to look back on later!

 

Message added by Solstice

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2 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Hold strong. I won't believe it if you don't...

Just need 8¼" for a top 10 storm since 2001.  

God that's depressing.

LOL

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2 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

29/17 now.  Sheesh.  :)

 

You're beating me now.

30/20

Valleys below are still in,mid 30's in many locales. 

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Temp down to 17 in Northern Wayne county,pa near Pleasant Mt,pa(18453); never made it above 28 for a high today

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4 minutes ago, 90sBlizzards said:

@StretchCT

Right - For decades, I get my locals from Upton. I have no idea what this mess is but 2-4" is just a ludicrously conservative call for some of these locales. Forget even me in Orange - For Putnam to be getting this same forecast (WWA for 2-4") when Ulster and Dutchess (and Litchfield CT) are all under WSW's, isn't really explainable.  

Keep in mind that winter storm watches are often downgraded to WWA's.  The Hartford area is up for 2-4 inches and .1 to .3" of ice.  Not sure that meets warning criteria.  So as the forecast period lessens, they may be issued a WWA. 

Litchfield and Ulster counties are up for 2-5" and .1" of ice.

Spoiler

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
331 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

CTZ002>004-150445-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0009.181115T2100Z-181116T1200Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Putnam, and Willimantic
331 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed wintry precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of one
  tenth to three tenths of an inch possible.

Winter Storm Watch


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
427 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ058>061-063>066-151100-
/O.NEW.KALY.WS.A.0009.181115T2100Z-181116T1800Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Southern Berkshire-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville,
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Sandisfield,
Great Barrington, South Egremont, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham,
Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo,
Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock,
West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown,
Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling,
Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains,
and Amenia
427 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northwestern Connecticut, southeastern
  Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley and southern Berkshires

 

 

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1 minute ago, JDClapper said:

Just need 8¼" for a top 10 storm since 2001.  

God that's depressing.

LOL

Just need 8 1/4" for a top 500 storm since 2001. 

I Will gladly trade my snow to the port. But I expect oriental rugs in return.

  • Haha 1

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29 with a wind chill of 20 currently. Gusting to 23mph. 

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Just now, MDBlueRidge said:

You're beating me now.

30/20

Valleys below are still in,mid 30's in many locales. 

Just dropped to 38/18 at BWI catching up to you lol 

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Just now, NEPA Snow said:

Temp down to 17 in Northern Wayne county,pa near Pleasant Mt,pa(18453); never made it above 28 for a high today

That's a chilly mid November evening. 

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8 minutes ago, 90sBlizzards said:

Why do you think these totals are extreme in PA and NY? If anything, they may be underdone east of you. The elevations of PA could easily see 8-12". 

Because it counts all frozen precip as snow.  It’s well known that many of TT snowmaps are not accurate because of this.  Especially in regards to storms that have mixing issues.

Edited by Poconosnow

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1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

STXprowl used a bobblehead

PC5drWf.jpg

That is the one.  I think it was Chase Utley. Thanks for digging.

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2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Keep in mind that winter storm watches are often downgraded to WWA's.  The Hartford area is up for 2-4 inches and .1 to .3" of ice.  Not sure that meets warning criteria.  So as the forecast period lessens, they may be issued a WWA. 

Litchfield and Ulster counties are up for 2-5" and .1" of ice.

  Hide contents


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
331 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

CTZ002>004-150445-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0009.181115T2100Z-181116T1200Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Putnam, and Willimantic
331 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed wintry precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of one
  tenth to three tenths of an inch possible.

Winter Storm Watch



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
427 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ058>061-063>066-151100-
/O.NEW.KALY.WS.A.0009.181115T2100Z-181116T1800Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Southern Berkshire-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville,
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Sandisfield,
Great Barrington, South Egremont, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham,
Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo,
Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock,
West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown,
Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling,
Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains,
and Amenia
427 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northwestern Connecticut, southeastern
  Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley and southern Berkshires

 

 

I just don't understand how they can say 2-5" when they then show their own maps/future radar clearly displaying 6-7 hours of heavy snow in those same locales. It's literally not possible for that to line up. I've seen this so many times and then afterwards, they just show the 2-5" places as receiving 8-12" and never say anything about their /failed forecast.

NWS has me at 2-4". TWC says 3-5 during the day, 3-5 at night but maintains an advisory since it comes from the NWS. Local agencies show anywhere from 2-10" in the entire area. Then TWC shows a clown map clearly displaying lollipops of 8-12" in southern NYS and a large part of CT. It's definitely like the scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz every storm, every year. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards
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Just now, Poconosnow said:

Because it counts all frozen precip as snow.  It’s well known that many of TT snowmaps are not accurate because of this.

Where are all of these maps showing heavy sleet into the mountains of central PA? I haven't seen one. 

  • Confused 1

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2 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

That's a chilly mid November evening. 

It was a cold one today for barely mid November

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Temps have bounced around between 34-37 IMBY 
 
<span style="display: block !important; width: 180px; text-align: center; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><a href="http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=zmw:20876.1.99999&bannertypeclick=wu_tr avel_ship1" title="Germantown, M
Edited by eddygeeme

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3 minutes ago, comet1510 said:

That is the one.  I think it was Chase Utley. Thanks for digging.

 

1A44D820-1EC0-4C8E-A409-6377546AE67A.jpeg

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0z Nam is showing some serious front end snow. 

Don't look clapper

Edited by MDBlueRidge

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4 minutes ago, 90sBlizzards said:

Where are all of these maps showing heavy sleet into the mountains of central PA? I haven't seen one. 

What are you on about? 

I said nothing about central PA.  You did and mentioned it’s underdone for areas to my east. Watch the loop.

Edited by Poconosnow
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2 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

What are you on about? 

I said nothing about central PA.  You did and mentioned it’s underdone for areas to my east. Watch the loop.  

??? I'm on about what happened. You thought 7-13" totals in central PA were lololololol land. I asked why and you said because the maps count all frozen precip as sleet. What maps show this huge sleet event in the mountains of central PA? None. Western NY? None. All day people keep insisting that the maps are overdone because of sleet in areas that are not forecast to sleet. I don't understand how this could get confused in the first place. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards

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Barometer showing the strength of that cold dome High up North

Clear

32°F | 0°C

Humidity 47%
Wind Speed N 12 mph
Barometer 30.55 in (1034.6 mb)
Dewpoint 14°F (-10°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 23°F (-5°C)
Last update 14 Nov 8:53 pm EST

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FWIW 

here is the 10:1 hrrr and the Kuchera aling with freezing rain map.  Storm still going at hr36.  

 

98713860-037B-4FAC-875A-145B58935503.png

FF91C6D5-B609-408E-8426-3C29047238A0.png

3D8F602C-F54E-42A0-A76C-0D6071B49666.png

Edited by Poconosnow

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1 minute ago, JDClapper said:

So classic .. 

gif1.thumb.gif.c92a41d7e1dcc0db2e0f53f0a90a03bc.gif

You looked....

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0Z NAM total snowfall holds serve like the Euro has been.  Again this is standard 10:1

3FF065FF-C87F-4B64-999A-2350435428C6.png

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