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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 15-16, 2018 | East Coast Snow/Ice Storm

Solstice

An open album has been created in the historical weather gallery. Anyone can submit photos there, just to look back on later!

 

Message added by Solstice

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Just put the trash out for Thursday pickup, BRRRRR!!!! its cold :winter_smilies_0012: Not windy, just cold and raw.

image.png.d70bb92142f261bd85bfddbe6942e40d.png

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20 minutes ago, NEPA Snow said:

It will be interrsting to compare the valley cities in NEPA, scranton, troop, olyphamt etc against the higher elevations in wayne, pike and susquehanna and other.  Usually a drastic diff in temps and snowfall

I’m working tomorrow night into Friday morning up in Pike county, and I live in the Lackawanna valley.... so I will let you know lol.   However I think this is a case where the Northwest mountains of nepa do a lot better than the Poconos

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Yeah winds backed off. 28 with a wind chill of 22 here now. 

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Just now, Poconosnow said:

so How much snow am I getting?

You said 2-4". 

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Okay I'm here. Been browsing for a while and have no clue what's going on, except that NAM says I get 13" of snow, NWS Sterling says 1/2", and Euro says half inch of sleet with half inch of freezing rain.

 

hmmmm

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10 minutes ago, ryanduff said:

I'll believe it when I see it. 

If I see that tomorrow, I still won't believe it....

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5 minutes ago, 90sBlizzards said:

No - the maps being posted here in the last few minutes certainly highlight my point. These forecasts are silly. 2-5" of snow in the Poconos seems far more silly, however. You can almost hear one of those loud, evil, "bwahahahahahaha" laughs in the background when someone posts that. 

For through this time you have brief light fluffyish snow at the onset then go to compacting snow until right around 00z per 3km nam that is indicative of at best 10:1 ratios more likely 8:1 but here nor there.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24.thumb.png.98e79bb4491eaab23df740984d9fc868.png

nam3km_apcpn_neus_8.thumb.png.59e5798c7d1e4708b8934b2a5e2774eb.png

So with no evap cooling processes taking place and assuming it stays 10:1, which is a big assumption for this time of year that is 7-10" then after the 00z mark it goes to ice. Then goes to ice and maybe at the end a burst of snow that could add 1-3" so is this the reason why you think its 8-13" possible in the mountains? Because the way I see it seems like a heavy wet snow in such a moisture laden atmosphere which would mean 8:1 and showing 5-9" maybe as being the top amounts under those conditions. Most of the mountainous areas ping off the freezing line aloft most of the event. Just from what I saw at least.

Just now, PlanetMaster said:

Lots of reports of snow, heavy sleet and even ZR in the OHR strom thread, this storm may end up being known more for its ICY side than the white or wet side when it comes down to it. I have a bad feeling this will cause lots of power outages in a wide area of the Ohio Valley, NE and MidAtl.

Yea im hoping the cold is deeper and stays longer but ice ice baby.

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4 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

so How much snow am I getting?

What town in the Poconos

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24 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Canadian will. Bulletproof model. 

So I can wear a printout of CMC 2m temp forecasts in lieu of my vest?

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4 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

For through this time you have brief light fluffyish snow at the onset then go to compacting snow until right around 00z per 3km nam that is indicative of at best 10:1 ratios more likely 8:1 but here nor there.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24.thumb.png.98e79bb4491eaab23df740984d9fc868.png

nam3km_apcpn_neus_8.thumb.png.59e5798c7d1e4708b8934b2a5e2774eb.png

So with no evap cooling processes taking place and assuming it stays 10:1, which is a big assumption for this time of year that is 7-10" then after the 00z mark it goes to ice. Then goes to ice and maybe at the end a burst of snow that could add 1-3" so is this the reason why you think its 8-13" possible in the mountains? Because the way I see it seems like a heavy wet snow in such a moisture laden atmosphere which would mean 8:1 and showing 5-9" maybe as being the top amounts under those conditions. Most of the mountainous areas ping off the freezing line aloft most of the event. Just from what I saw at least.

Yea im hoping the cold is deeper and stays longer but ice ice baby.

You know more than I do so your explanation of why 5-9" is more reasonable than 8-13" sounds good to me. That's not what the NWS has forecast for those locations under Warnings, though. They have 2-5" of snow forecast for most of central PA under Winter Storm Warnings. I have 2-5" forecast north of NYC. The event will drastically outperform the NWS's forecast according to all of this. 2-4" in the Poconos is ridiculous. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards

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1 minute ago, 90sBlizzards said:

You know more than I do so your explanation of why 5-9" is more reasonable than 8-13" sounds good to me. That's not what the NWS has forecast for those locations under Warnings, though. They have 2-5" of snow forecast for most of central PA under Winter Storm Warnings. I have 2-5" forecast north of NYC for 2-5" of snow forecast. The event will drastically outperform the NWS's forecast according to all of this. 2-4" in the Poconos is ridiculous. 

This is the biggest poker game I've ever seen with models vs. mets... clear line drawn in the sand, with a complicated early-season forecast and TONS of variables. With this much QPF to play with, any mistake or change in dynamics could dramatically change the outcome.

Very interesting storm.

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 Albany's ice accumulation map from 7:00pm Thurs. to 7:00am Friday.

image.png.e9f1d5a666d5ad2c6dfa4c052de49768.png   image.png.dc22b0234c47c6c771ba22a5098d7e3e.png

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2 hours ago, Snow11 said:

DT has 2-4 inches for NYC and a lot more to the north and west

Upton now has 1-2 inches for NYC with nothing in eastern LI

Is that you snowman11 anthany from accuweather? 

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7 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

For through this time you have brief light fluffyish snow at the onset then go to compacting snow until right around 00z per 3km nam that is indicative of at best 10:1 ratios more likely 8:1 but here nor there.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24.thumb.png.98e79bb4491eaab23df740984d9fc868.png

nam3km_apcpn_neus_8.thumb.png.59e5798c7d1e4708b8934b2a5e2774eb.png

So with no evap cooling processes taking place and assuming it stays 10:1, which is a big assumption for this time of year that is 7-10" then after the 00z mark it goes to ice. Then goes to ice and maybe at the end a burst of snow that could add 1-3" so is this the reason why you think its 8-13" possible in the mountains? Because the way I see it seems like a heavy wet snow in such a moisture laden atmosphere which would mean 8:1 and showing 5-9" maybe as being the top amounts under those conditions. Most of the mountainous areas ping off the freezing line aloft most of the event. Just from what I saw at least.

Yea im hoping the cold is deeper and stays longer but ice ice baby.

"ice ice baby", please, have some civility here.  Now I will have to find my old motorhead cd's and try to erase that song form my mind

 

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15 minutes ago, 90sBlizzards said:

You know more than I do so your explanation of why 5-9" is more reasonable than 8-13" sounds good to me. That's not what the NWS has forecast for those locations under Warnings, though. They have 2-5" of snow forecast for most of central PA under Winter Storm Warnings. I have 2-5" forecast north of NYC for 2-5" of snow forecast. The event will drastically outperform the NWS's forecast according to all of this. 2-4" in the Poconos is ridiculous. 

I think the biggest issue for this is the timing of the transition, WAA waits for no one as my professor use to tell us in forecasting class because we had competitions with snowfall to see who would forecast the most accurate. I would honestly say 5-9" is the upper echelon again not saying outside a few lollipops its possible but with this type of event and the time of year its unlikely in many locals to get near that foot mark with this. For areas on the eastern side of the warnings and western side of the WWA it is a hard situation because if for some reason the cold stays through the column longer the more snow the other issue then arises well what happens when the warmer air comes in aloft quicker well then its more ice situation and less snow. We will be revisiting this after the storm to see how they did.

Edited by so_whats_happening
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11 minutes ago, 90sBlizzards said:

You know more than I do so your explanation of why 5-9" is more reasonable than 8-13" sounds good to me. That's not what the NWS has forecast for those locations under Warnings, though. They have 2-5" of snow forecast for most of central PA under Winter Storm Warnings. I have 2-5" forecast north of NYC. The event will drastically outperform the NWS's forecast according to all of this. 2-4" in the Poconos is ridiculous. 

So how much snow is going to fall in the Poconos 

is all the qpf gonna be snow here?

Edited by Poconosnow
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4 minutes ago, JonSnow said:

"ice ice baby", please, have some civility here.  Now I will have to find my old motorhead cd's and try to erase that song form my mind

 

I had to it was sooo easy lol

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4 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

So how much snow is going to fall in the Poconos 

is all the qpf gonna be snow here?

He just answered it fully. Maps are showing what would total a good 7-13" for your locations. Due to the factors laid out in his post, 5-9" sounds more reasonable, with legitimate icing concerns that would occur after the snow has fallen. That's a pretty dangerous scenario for Nov 15th. Where you are, Rain is far less of a concern (if any) and only was one on the GFS before this afternoon. If you see more mixing, it's more ZR most likely and that's a really dangerous situation. If you see less mixing, your totals are going up quite a bit. It's not a minor winter event, especially not for the date. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards

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2 minutes ago, 90sBlizzards said:

He just answered it fully. Maps are showing what would total a good 7-13" for your locations. Due to the factors laid out in his post, 5-9" sounds more reasonable, with legitimate icing concerns that would occur after the snow has fallen. That's a pretty dangerous scenario for Nov 15th. 

I’ll give you a dollar if 7-13” of snow falls in the southern Poconos 

heck I’ll give you a dollar if I get more than 5”

Edited by Poconosnow

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Just now, Poconosnow said:

If 2-4” of snow in the Poconos area is ridiculous I’m wondering how much is not ridiculous. 

I’

I’ll give you a dollar if 7-13” of snow falls in the southern Poconos 

Ok, fair enough. Remember: I don't know *where* in the Poconos you are but regardless - 2-4" is highly conservative and not what *any* models show for you at this point. 

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30 mi NW of DC IMBY 35F with 21 DP. RH 57% winds are calm to light ENE. It feels very raw outside. Suppose we wet bulb in the upper 20s.

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I imagine this GIF as trying to squeeze out toothpaste from a near-empty tube.

nam3km_T850_neus_fh0-48.thumb.gif.705c849d8fe96d47c6f1abf046538fab.gif

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Enough bickering .. RGEM has answered our questions.

png1.thumb.png.b17974e1fe04073f704d92854cfcfae9.png

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3 minutes ago, 90sBlizzards said:

He just answered it fully. Maps are showing what would total a good 7-13" for your locations. Due to the factors laid out in his post, 5-9" sounds more reasonable, with legitimate icing concerns that would occur after the snow has fallen. That's a pretty dangerous scenario for Nov 15th. Where you are, Rain is far less of a concern (if any) and only was one on the GFS before this afternoon. If you see more mixing, it's more ZR most likely and that's a really dangerous situation. If you see less mixing, your totals are going up quite a bit. It's not a minor winter event, especially not for the date. 

Its nov, and coming during the day.  Idk your area, but expecting 5-9" before Thanksgiving is setting yourself up for disappointment.  

Be happy with whatever you get, its bonus snow

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