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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 24-25, 2018 | East Coast Storm | Fall Disturbance

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Hello, posters and lurkers! It seems that we could get another storm for the east coast before November 2018 is out.

Overall main players are the continued active southern stream branch, GOMEX, and SW Atlantic moisture, possible northern stream branch involvement, and the usual presence or lack of High-pressure system over SE Canada acting as the source of cold air, and even possibly blocking the conditions.

Basic setup - the low-pressure system should start to develop and gather moisture over the GOMEX and then track over eastern parts of the SE CONUS or track over Florida and then NE or ENE  towards the higher latitudes to eastern Maine or southeast Canada. Details such as high-pressure location, northern stream interaction and depth of cold air or lack thereof, will need to be ironed out little by little as this time frame draws near.

Please see below an image illustrating the basic setup for this possible storm.

387202387_Nov25-272018StormScenario.thumb.png.fd3a767e5f4b426c4029f31fd012f258.png

 

Now, onwards to the support data; EPS Control MSLP, BSR and GFS, GEFS, ECMWF and EPS teleconnections (AO, NAO, PNA and EPO)

 

Model Guidance

12Z EPS Control MSLP - 11/12/18

giphy.gif 

00Z EPS Control MSLP - 11/13/18

 giphy.gif  

 

Bearing Sea Rule

11/23/18 12Z through 11/27/18 00Z :

output_LZ98ec.gif.00329f1a9852d1bc88e3e0b056162c4d.gif

 

Teleconnections:

GFS AO, NAO, EPO, and PNA, respectively:

945803948_aoneggfs.png.bf0ef13bb88d019103b6f2ad3ace9cd1.png694432760_pnaneggfs.png.91fd0e895738573ade14e3b6bc9429f0.png

1509760123_eponeggfs.png.61b24b5183d79f6858e96aa63dd14fc6.png694432760_pnaneggfs.png.91fd0e895738573ade14e3b6bc9429f0.png

 

GEFS - AO and NAO; only these were available at the time of this post creation)

1098417583_aoneggefs.png.ce0ebffe44cce5e52b2d6203320037a2.png803068592_NAOneggefs.png.b3ab02fef97ff50395c4e6e40134b60a.png

 

ECMWF Teleconection info: (Data from weathermodels.com)

AO - ~ -3.3 trending positive

NAO - ~ -2.9 stable

EPO - ~ +1.3 trending negative

PNA - ~ -0.5 slow trend positive

 

EPS Teleconection info: (Data from weathermodels.com)

AO - ~ -2.7 stable

NAO - ~ -1.4  stable

EPO -  ~ -0.2 slow trend negative

PNA - ~ +1.5 slow trend positive

 

All in all, given the EPS control signal, BSR support for a nearby storm and most of the teleconnections in a favorable status, it seems that the odds for an east coast storm are decent, be it over land east of the Appalachians or just offshore.

We will see how all this will evolve, and when the time comes, if there will actually be a storm and where it will track.

Have fun discussion!

 

 

 

 

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First operational modelmpost of the thread.

12Z FV3GFS

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh222-300.gif.b464c419d2395e812cd6f6cc4f6bbf61.gif

 

Pretty decent for this far ou in comparison to the thread's opener.

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The pattern we're entering, conducive to Miller A's that originate in the eastern gulf/western atlantic, is by far the best pattern we can ask for in the East. These are always the best snowstorms as far as totals/wind. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards
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12Z GFS is a day earlier with its solution as it compares to the thread´s time frame, but in any case, it develops the "expected" storm concerning this thread.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh204-276.gif.a11fcf9c124f909f163e527185eff181.gif

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Has this been pushed back further or is there yet another LP coming up the coast on the 30th? GFS for the 30th shows a 990mb low just inside the benchmark with tons of cold air in place.

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1 hour ago, 90sBlizzards said:

Has this been pushed back further or is there yet another LP coming up the coast on the 30th? GFS for the 30th shows a 990mb low just inside the benchmark with tons of cold air in place.

Bsr has a separate signal for the 30-1st

very nice nothern push apparent too

7636B84D-797E-4B5E-97C9-A7EFA4BB2986.gif.a9445253cb5611e94bd7398c9569a565.gif

Don’t wanna get too far ahead of ourselves though

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Not much cold air to be found...but we do have a little something on the 12z GFS:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png gfs_z500_vort_us_33.png

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I think this is relevant to this thread

GYX 

Indications continue that a large and slow moving storm may
form along the southeastern seaboard late next week and into the
weekend. Will continue to monitor as we will be entering a high
period of astronomical tides.

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I'm not sure it would take too much of a tweak to get this "high over low" to spring some suprises

f240.thumb.gif.294edf6e3f4ca4941a8d855935d6cda6.gif

GFS has the HP stronger (1040mb) but relatively displaced west of Euro depiction. - some rather large differences at H5, but that could be due to the GFS progressive bias, when compared to non NCEP product at this range. (V3 GFS is not only not on the same page, it appears to be in an entirely different library)

GFSf240.thumb.gif.dd443b64a8f789462ad3f2682ab5c80f.gif

Looking to spaghetti, there is plenty of uncertainty in the GFS version - just look at that mess (green  and blue lines) within the Polar and Arctic jet regions (respectively)

f240.giGEFS.thumb.gif.a3be964f15b5402b37badeccc0a21a0d.gif

Gotta "root" for this one, for the sake of my huntin' buddies. I take the days off to be camp cook these days, and to assist in "dragging" etc. So I would not mind having some ambiance to do so in. 

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EPS with spread shows good agreement for a trof driving through eastern NOAM, typical timing/ depth discrepancies.   Much more spread in regards to ridging (or lack thereof) INVOF Baffin Bay.

18112512_1612.gif.04b6e3f4a0ee9c1561d5509ff732220f.gif

18112612_1612.gif.482b77cbe1259e203df93ff8628d7a94.gif

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=sz50&HH=240&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

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GYX

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
This fall has been a typically frustrating forecast in a +ENSO
skewed neutral environment, which continues to show a +PNA trend
without quite locking in completely. There`s always some hope
for ridging in the ern CONUS, but we never quite get there.
Actually in the long range, downstream rex blocking over Europe
strengthens a bit which will help deepen the ern NOAM troughing
and build the Pacific ridge, so we will get into a fairly
amplified +PNA pattern. However, that building ridge pushing
poleward out of Scandinavia is forecast to break up the cold
air pool over the pole and Hudson Bay, which may just warm
things a little bit by next weekend. But it`ll remain below
normal through the holiday week.

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15 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

I'm not sure it would take too much of a tweak to get this "high over low" to spring some suprises

f240.thumb.gif.294edf6e3f4ca4941a8d855935d6cda6.gif

GFS has the HP stronger (1040mb) but relatively displaced west of Euro depiction. - some rather large differences at H5, but that could be due to the GFS progressive bias, when compared to non NCEP product at this range. (V3 GFS is not only not on the same page, it appears to be in an entirely different library)

GFSf240.thumb.gif.dd443b64a8f789462ad3f2682ab5c80f.gif

Looking to spaghetti, there is plenty of uncertainty in the GFS version - just look at that mess (green  and blue lines) within the Polar and Arctic jet regions (respectively)

f240.giGEFS.thumb.gif.a3be964f15b5402b37badeccc0a21a0d.gif

Gotta "root" for this one, for the sake of my huntin' buddies. I take the days off to be camp cook these days, and to assist in "dragging" etc. So I would not mind having some ambiance to do so in. 

There aren't many things in life that I'm certain of, but one thing is for certain in this time frame. Cold air won't be lacking in the Northeast, because nature's air conditioner is spread generously across the region: nsm_swe_2018111705_National.jpg

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Eps 0z - Nice looking transfer here

B188643A-CA18-46BB-9294-8B5C04F3BD8F.png.0ae6c4ed090b92f11c29d4cca5ba7acd.pngA417E1B2-B6D5-41F8-9BDF-419FAF500EB5.png.e816ac7067ca244196dde43bf514e031.png

 

E6DB74DD-D636-4512-8ED0-8C6AF0D171D0.png.f340996947b6c4423a5de5ebfe2a265b.png

this far out this is about the best look you can hope for in the ensemble sets.  I love transfers 

I’ve got most all my outside stuff done for the year and everything is prepped so bring it on.

Edited by Poconosnow
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@Poconosnow Yeah, interesting indeed. Temperatures can be resolved later...at this point, an upper level signal is what we need...and have.

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12z navgem slower than the gfs ops and is hinting at a transfer scenario detailed by the 0z eps

FF267E13-4387-40B8-971C-08A1E8F4E7E4.png.df8f29e0441ec1e9836d864426204c21.png

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12z euro looks a bit off as it tries to develop the initial southern stream energy into a a cyclone which then pumps a large ridge over the east coast.  Then as it tries to develop a storm on the 27th it ends up doin so too far west as it reaches towards the coast to attemp a transfer.  Lots of things to convolute the models during this period.  

Would suggest to lean on ensemble suites for this upcoming period after Thanksgiving.   Ultimately this storm will then help determine what occurs at the end of the month along with a possible recurving typhoon or two typhoons.  Still a lot of time left and many factors to sort out. 

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2 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

00z euro has this valid the 28th

 

6B06077B-6982-4B41-AD7C-BC80761AB457.png

4panel

FDF8F80C-D71F-4EA9-BBC4-87F22D25EED4.thumb.gif.be5c0104b2eaf5352a36c4d1f5b7bf1e.gif

If "we" can get a "banana" to top this off,  that would be huge in way of getting as much frozen precip out of the system as possible. The 4 panel view shows just how little spatial "wiggle room" there is to the downstream ( E side) of the system - to me, a wild card that can't be adequately assessed ATTM, but that bears watching. 

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1 minute ago, UTSwiinii said:

If "we" can get a "banana" to top this off,  that would be huge in way of getting as much frozen precip out of the system as possible. The 4 panel view shows just how little spatial "wiggle room" there is to the downstream ( E side) of the system - to me, a wild card that can't be adequately assessed ATTM, but that bears watching. 

The eps also very stout in its offering at D10 lead

D1C8CC4E-A3C0-4686-A0B9-06852D6C8AE1.thumb.png.c819148626d49b82aeb063270891a61e.png

A lot of shifting around of time periods occurring.  So many different energies at play along with a split flow in the pacific. 

 

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1 minute ago, Poconosnow said:

The eps also very stout in its offering at D10 lead

D1C8CC4E-A3C0-4686-A0B9-06852D6C8AE1.thumb.png.c819148626d49b82aeb063270891a61e.png

A lot of shifting around of time periods occurring.  So many different energies at play along with a split flow in the pacific. 

 

Indeed - the old weather axiom of "split flow is weatherman's woe" should be in the back of our minds when viewing model output. 

On the plus side, it indicates an active STJ (good for added "juice" to any one potential) and the further POTENTIAL for amplification leading to stream merge downstream.

On the minus - very difficult (historically) for the models to be very trustworthy beyond ~D3 (thus, the weatherman's woe truism - would be like fighting with one hand tied)

Do we have some solid indicators? I'd say that's almost undeniable. But, at this point, that's all we can really say - other than whether confidence increases (or not)

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Gefs also displaying a similar look 

9711C1F2-0E54-410C-804C-E3CE7F29648D.thumb.png.2e917d72fc2271aa9e55c711690e215a.png

 

Maybe 12z will help shine a bit of light 

Edited by Poconosnow

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