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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 24-25, 2018 | East Coast Storm | Fall Disturbance

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I actually think I posted euro in wrong thread 

this more aligns with this period we’ve been watching

ADA825F6-0C07-43E0-BBE5-3412F1885320.thumb.png.087f223cf7322965ab9a4f2439c16a30.png09BA3506-0419-4AD4-93E0-48C1C01E7F3B.thumb.gif.8fd352a31292c876a886016d91bb6e09.gif

Edited by Poconosnow

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42 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

I actually think I posted euro in wrong thread 

this more aligns with this period we’ve been watching

ADA825F6-0C07-43E0-BBE5-3412F1885320.thumb.png.087f223cf7322965ab9a4f2439c16a30.png09BA3506-0419-4AD4-93E0-48C1C01E7F3B.thumb.gif.8fd352a31292c876a886016d91bb6e09.gif

Looks juicy. If reality abides by the Euro then interior New England might not see bare ground until spring. This has important implications for the entire winter as it virtually ensures snow will be the dominant p type in the region.

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15 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Looks juicy. If reality abides by the Euro then interior New England might not see bare ground until spring. This has important implications for the entire winter as it virtually ensures snow will be the dominant p type in the region.

Magical unicorn over 5050A70C4C19-2A4F-43F2-B94D-13A1AA42D560.thumb.gif.3e3f7c8663adb8229ecb94978bf9ed91.gif

will help lock in the banana hp and really slow a deepening coastal down and allow it time to transport a ton off moisture 

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1 hour ago, Poconosnow said:

Eps 

F10B0DC4-C43D-43A8-A08D-0C2CB2E153EB.png

Lots of good signals.  Only issue im seeing is the airmass.  Not much cold air around. 

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7 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Lots of good signals.  Only issue im seeing is the airmass.  Not much cold air around. 

The only time period with temperatures warm enough to substantially melt existing snow pack is as this system approaches. There's a bunch of ice on the ground so it's going to take prolonged warmth to melt it away.

If existing snow pack survives then low levels should be cool enough, especially in the interior. 

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33 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Looks juicy. If reality abides by the Euro then interior New England might not see bare ground until spring. This has important implications for the entire winter as it virtually ensures snow will be the dominant p type in the region.

Not sure it would ensure snow necessarily,  my fear is that it could set stage for ZR.  1997 was thre third snowiest Nov for PWM (records go back to 1881). Not saying correlation is causation, but January of that winter ws a devastating ice storm up here. 

PWM11S.png.3f4cf9edbcb292995ed0a2477fb24632.png

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1 minute ago, MaineJay said:

Not sure it would ensure snow necessarily,  my fear is that it could set stage for ZR.  1997 was thre third snowiest Nov for PWM (records go back to 1881). Not saying correlation is causation, but January of that winter ws a devastating ice storm up here. 

PWM11S.png.3f4cf9edbcb292995ed0a2477fb24632.png

Yeah, that's a good point. I'll clarify that if there's deep snow pack then surface temperatures should be near or below freezing for most precipitation. I don't want to wish a big ice storm on anybody, but it could happen.

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19 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

Magical unicorn over 5050A70C4C19-2A4F-43F2-B94D-13A1AA42D560.thumb.gif.3e3f7c8663adb8229ecb94978bf9ed91.gif

will help lock in the banana hp and really slow a deepening coastal down and allow it time to transport a ton off moisture 

Hmmm I don't want to hype the situation too much, but maybe this could happen:

Image result for day after tomorrow

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19 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

 

Yeah, that's a good point. I'll clarify that if there's deep snow pack then surface temperatures should be near or below freezing for most precipitation. I don't want to wish a big ice storm on anybody, but it could happen.

I don’t think this snowpack will effect p types in any way. 

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4 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

I don’t think this snowpack will effect p types in any way. 

Refrigerator effect 

it’s real

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13 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

Refrigerator effect 

it’s real

I liked the explanation someone gave yesterday. Snowpack really keeps the cold shots from moderating on their way down versus when the air mass passes over bare ground. Which would absorb and release heat. Makes all the sense in the world. 

Edit: I was reading backwards so as I went back I saw more context to this. Wanted to add this snowpack in the northeast could be a real difference maker further to the south in the borderline areas if it keeps a cold shot a bit colder than it would normally be, particularly early season. Bodes well for winter weather lovers here in Virginia and similar locales. 

Edited by 1816
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14 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

I don’t think this snowpack will effect p types in any way. 

Negative 

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1 minute ago, Poconosnow said:

D7C3600E-8834-4359-B1D6-1986925A5C95.png

Wow, it seems like upper level energy won't be in short supply. I foresee considerable phasing issues in this thread's future. 

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Just now, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Wow, it seems like upper level energy won't be in short supply. I foresee considerable phasing issues in this thread's future. 

Issues as in phase, no phase, phase, no phase, on a run to run basis? 

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Seems like the low pressure is 500 miles more NE on the gfs 12z.    Curious to see the  fv3 

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9 minutes ago, 1816 said:

I liked the explanation someone gave yesterday. Snowpack really keeps the cold shots from moderating on their way down versus when the air mass passes over bare ground. Which would absorb and release heat. Makes all the sense in the world. 

Snow cover also influences local heat loss/gain associated with radiation. More incoming radiation is reflected due to high albedo and heat is emitted more efficiently since snow cover (especially fresh snow cover) behaves like a black body

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7 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Wow, it seems like upper level energy won't be in short supply. I foresee considerable phasing issues in this thread's future. 

Models stand close to zero chance of getting any of this phasing right in the medium to long range

we simply must follow along for now and know there is a disturbance coming 

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11 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Issues as in phase, no phase, phase, no phase, on a run to run basis? 

There appears to be no less than 3 vort maxes interacting with each other. The timing/position and intensity of interactions are critical for storm track and associated impacts. 

This will probably lead to lots of run-to-run variability and lower confidence medium (and perhaps short) range forecasts.

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie
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Sterling with a drive-by mention in the long range for something next Sat 24th that I don't see a thread for. 

Quote

High pressure dominates briefly Friday with temps starting to
rebound. The next system then possibly reaches our region on
Saturday. This one may be tricky with the cold air exiting, but
perhaps not fast enough, which could spell a wintry or mixed
precip event. Stay tuned...

 

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