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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 24-25, 2018 | East Coast Storm | Fall Disturbance

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7 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Folks, Im confused.

Why is there another thread forthissame storm?

The storm I created the thread for is not for astorm that stars on the 27th. Is for one that comes into the regiin around the 25th of November, give or take a day.

The threads will need to be merged.

Yup, this one corresponds to the "first" wave based off the opening post.

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2FC436AA-34FF-4D0A-A7FE-758D9CF4E51C.thumb.png.75baadbabeb8fb5e07d3c9f63c477c47.png

Clearly an earlier wave of precip being depicted by all guidance on the 24-25th

I’d much rather discussion not be crammed into a 5day thread. I don’t see a problem here.

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7 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

Look at guidance today it’s not the same storm 

1452261660_gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31(1).png.d2bfa3c5ce916e8ddfae9b1537b11f6e.png

 

Based off @Phased Vort's opening post, this thread corresponds to a system originating from around the GOMEX, so based off the CMC run I posted, it would be the first wave. The second wave would be the one still over CONUS, a different storm. Though I'm just posting the CMC, can you post a GIF? For some reason pivotalweather isn't working for me.

 

Edit:
Or even better, could you highlight which storms you are referring to? I'm kinda confused in general what's happening...

Edited by Solstice

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Listen I don’t care what’s what

there is a threat for next weekend the 24-25th

and then another on the 27-28th

3584267A-C4BD-4794-BB2A-C25BB56C285C.thumb.png.b79a76238179e6312463ccf0c8b0c720.png92C4D726-9DA4-4C29-87E9-B92FD9A6C301.thumb.png.94411309e4b0f4e19ab723a9b1f73b9c.png

 

Sometimes thread get opened and stuff changes

if you want to move the other thread till the 24-25th be my guest 

I’ll just adjust the one I made till the 27-28

i don’t see the big deal here.

Edited by Poconosnow

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@Phased Vort

there are two seperate storms on guidance now

which one is your thread for?

adjust your dates to the 24-25 if you are discussing the first one.

then another thread would be needed fir the 27-28.

did you fail to look at today’s guidance or what?

Edited by Poconosnow
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Why merge them then??

i could have just changed the dates? 

Unreal, do you think my intent is to hijack a thread.  Come on...

 

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My two cents are that this is a very complicated/active period and there's going to be confusion regarding which storm does what no matter how the various thread(s) are structured. One thread for such a long time frame would probably be a confusing nightmare.

Ultimately, most posters are interested in winter weather so there should be a separate thread devoted to the time period with greater wintry potential to reduce potential confusion. I'm not sure it's clear what dates the greatest wintry potential will exist so IMHO mods should be vigilant about updating the effective dates. 

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I’m not going to even bother opening a 27-28 thread yet for risk it will simply get deleted or merged again.  

I did my best to keep the discussion separated today only for it to get merged into one gigantic lump again that resulted in the original dates being moved two days prior.  

There remains a chance that the energy for Gulf of Mexico moisture remains off the coast and ots so in my mind it made much more sense to make a new two day thread for that instead of moving the longer more winterey discussion up.  I took a logical approach rather than just make a whiplash decision.  

The way this was handled makes me feel like participating less in the future not more.

 

 

 

Edited by Poconosnow
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3 hours ago, Solstice said:

Yup, this one corresponds to the "first" wave based off the opening post.

 

3 hours ago, Solstice said:

1452261660_gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31(1).png.d2bfa3c5ce916e8ddfae9b1537b11f6e.png

 

Based off @Phased Vort's opening post, this thread corresponds to a system originating from around the GOMEX, so based off the CMC run I posted, it would be the first wave. The second wave would be the one still over CONUS, a different storm. Though I'm just posting the CMC, can you post a GIF? For some reason pivotalweather isn't working for me.

 

Edit:
Or even better, could you highlight which storms you are referring to? I'm kinda confused in general what's happening...

@Solstice, exactly what you posted above.

It's the same storm from the opening thread post. The was even a GFS run concerning this storm posted. It was only a mattermofmadjusting the dates from 25-27 to 24-25. But since I have been traveling, I was not around to adjust the dates. And since the thread merged into this was opened talking about this very same storm, it had to be merged with the original one. That's basically the situation.

There cannot be two threads for the same storm.

 

 

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18Z ECMWF:

Low over Georgia .

eps_mslp_cont_conus_144.thumb.png.76b3915c9982e7127002b82579f8be87.png

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3 hours ago, Poconosnow said:

I’m not going to even bother opening a 27-28 thread yet for risk it will simply get deleted or merged again.  

I did my best to keep the discussion separated today only for it to get merged into one gigantic lump again that resulted in the original dates being moved two days prior.  

There remains a chance that the energy for Gulf of Mexico moisture remains off the coast and ots so in my mind it made much more sense to make a new two day thread for that instead of moving the longer more winterey discussion up.  I took a logical approach rather than just make a whiplash decision.  

The way this was handled makes me feel like participating less in the future not more.

 

 

 

5

I need you Poc......we need you

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18 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

I need you Poc......we need you

We've already been through a winter without posts from @Poconosnow. Suffice to say that nobody wants that again. 

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Two words: NAVGEM rule.

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_24.png.3332047518e1c1201c83112c9c840942.png

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1 hour ago, Solstice said:

Two words: NAVGEM rule.

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_24.png.3332047518e1c1201c83112c9c840942.png

Funny. One of the Mets from our local station, WTNH, just mentioned in his forecast for this weekend's storm that we should keep a close eye on the storm. He said the NAO will be going sharply negative and feels the storm depicted not as a coastal ( as of last night ) may jump off the coast, which would bring us more Wintry precip and keep the cold air in place fpr Connecticut. Any thoughts ( well.. I see the NAVGEM is doing that now ) 

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This is looking like a snow-eating umbrella event for us--we will be ending November the way we ended November 2016 and November 2017:  with bare ground. Then we will have our cold spell.

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17 minutes ago, bobbo428 said:

This is looking like a snow-eating umbrella event for us--we will be ending November the way we ended November 2016 and November 2017:  with bare ground. Then we will have our cold spell.

I mean this is just one rendition...but this isn't looking all that "snow-eating" to me....

Screen Shot 2018-11-19 at 3.59.20 PM.png

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12z GEM.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21.thumb.png.99cb0f874a10b2cc4fabc38767c091be.png

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12Z GFS continues its tune of keeping the main low-pressure energy farther southeast away from the coast while moisture moves in over the region from the west as a weaker low try to develop over Long Island.

In other words, the GFS continues to advertise a rainy event for the most part.

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GYX 

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A very active pattern will continue through the weekend into
the middle of next week. Saturday night mixed precipitation
will impact the region. Low pressure will develop south of Long
Island along a trailing trough/front moving through southern
Quebec. Precipitation will begin fairly abruptly Saturday
evening and then continue through Sunday morning.

Precipitation type is a very tricky forecast for this system. Aloft
the warm conveyor belt of the low is expected to push warm air in
aloft. While some models put this `warm nose` as high as +4C the
trend has been to keep the low slightly further south which
would bring still above freezing but more moderate temperatures,
around +1C to +3C leading to more of a sleet mix. At the
surface cold temperatures currently in place around the region
will increase the risk for icing on surfaces even if the air
temperatures are able to warm somewhat. Have leaned cold at the
surface as climatology says cold air is hard to move out. Also
the precipitation looks to start after dark on Saturday and even
a few hours of cooling will be enough to drop much of the area
below freezing.

The region at highest threat for icing extends from Bangor through
Augusta and into Lewiston and Sanford in Maine where up to 0.1" may
occur.  Through the northern mountains areas like Rangelely and
Jackman may not see enough warm air aloft to go over to freezing rain
and have gone with a sloppy sleet snow mix. As you move into New
Hampshire the forecast becomes even more tricky as the terrain begins
to interact. Higher elevations of the Whites will stay all snow, with
north of the notches also remaining a wet snow or sleet mix even at
the lower elevations. Through the Lakes Region and south through
Concord and into Stratford county some light ice is possible and this
will depend on the strength of the cold air draining out of Maine.
With all the uncertainty through this area would have liked to just
forecast "wintery mix" but opted to add Chc Freezing rain north of
Concord NH through the notches. The two regions most likely to see
plain rain are the immediate seacoast in southwest Maine and
Southern New Hampshire.

With all winter precip types in play it seems clear a winter weather
advisory will be needed for much of the area for Saturday night
however with so much uncertainty on the ptype have opted to
highlight this threat in the HWO and hold off on any headlines for
now.

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American models are fairly dry up here with this one, fine by me.  I get the sense freezing drizzle with be the dominant P-type.

namconus_apcpn_neus_22.thumb.png.a4c106315ea6fca7ad785e048e035a7f.pnggfs_apcpn_neus_11.thumb.png.f962b766ea3113a90c3c645d040b7c75.png

 

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Anyone have raw data access to the FV3, or can compare to other sites - This doesn't look right.  997 low going to 978 in 6 hrs then to 983.

1791034021_11-2312fv3ttrunfor11-25.thumb.gif.8f434393344812261f92bd567aa2e0ec.gif

Meanwhile Pivotal is at 993?

361637089_11-2312zfv3pivotal.thumb.png.7c999e0d083f176ba8b72e560c7f3925.png

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Whoa here it comes

Watch out folks, there'll be no white

Whoa here it comes

It's a snow eater (a.k.a. Great Lakes Cutter)

 

On Feb. 14, 2016, we had our all-time coldest February minimum of 18 below. Two days later, we had a major February storm. Unfortunately, it was a rainmaker--just like tomorrow's. I can hardly wait. Yeah, sure.

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I think this goes for this thread. I'm not convinced the precip get here fast enough, but if it does look out. The ground is cold.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
750 PM EST Fri Nov 23 2018



PAZ054-055-060>062-241000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0020.181124T1200Z-181124T1800Z/
Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton
750 PM EST Fri Nov 23 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of a
  light glaze expected.

* WHERE...Southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and Berks County in
  eastern Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation on Saturday morning will
  start as freezing drizzle and freezing rain across some of the
  area. As a result, a light glaze of ice is possible especially
  on elevated surfaces, bridges and overpasses within the advisory
  area. The precipitation is expected to change to rain by early
  afternoon.

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Currently 21F nws ice map shows .25-.5" for highest spots. Hoping we warm up quickly tomorrow. 

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Satellite for this forming critter:

CODNEXLAB-regional-northeast-wv-ani24-201811240547-100-100-raw.gif.56c2ec714c38614234ea343bf3daa101.gif

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