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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Poconosnow

November 19-22, 2018 | Turkey Day

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Opening a thread for the Holiday. 

There are a couple organic signals for this time period (covered thoroughly in the long range fall thread and two blog posts

) and traveling leading up to the 22nd will be at a high. 

We can use this thread to monitor any conditions that may make any travels hazardous or disrupted. 

06z navgem was the least progressive model flow wise going into this period. 

EB3E6EC4-5E3F-4E35-9FB1-84ACA9A6D017.png.97f84bdaaff59c871144d175318b2ed2.png

I will update with new guidance as it rolls in today. 

Hope everyone has a Happy Thanksgiving and safe travels!

Edited by Poconosnow
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12z gfs h5 48hr trend valid 0z 19th

B82F2810-8B24-4259-B70A-4737773CAA32.png.947e104888df4a2e23a5eaf89120dc9f.png

the dark red height rises out front are what has been missing so we will watch to see how those react in the coming runs 

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Nice opening posts! :forumsmiley1392-1:

I was wondering when this thread was going to open up. Taking BSR verbatim indicates this storm will do one of two things: 1) cancel my flight out of Pittsburgh on the 21st or 2) puke snow in Morgantown on the 22nd when I'm back in St. Louis

Given my luck, I think option 2 is more likely :classic_laugh:

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Gfs at 12z with a mighty hammer swing a little too late

huge change from previous runs however 

06z

69F9D0CE-3017-4E78-AEEC-C853E96D499E.png.0441d81a8ac818f712c49526a4b94c9d.png

12z

6F3F7A44-D401-4584-A375-B22D6640FA75.png.3040e64ccd0cf2e6eb3112706eb07fb1.png

Edited by Poconosnow

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28 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Nice opening posts! :forumsmiley1392-1:

I was wondering when this thread was going to open up. Taking BSR verbatim indicates this storm will do one of two things: 1) cancel my flight out of Pittsburgh on the 21st or 2) puke snow in Morgantown on the 22nd when I'm back in St. Louis

Given my luck, I think option 2 is more likely :classic_laugh:

🙂

Well the organic signals and wavespacing were always there so I could have opened it awhile back. 

It’s always a hoot to open a thread when there’s 0 model guidance support, but I don’t mind and it’s also a holiday!

This mornings navgem run made it pretty apparent the flow for this period was a changin’

We have a double split flow in the pacific occurring while the prior storm is at our doorstep.  

CF19CEFF-1D4B-4E29-B353-F99CF9108675.png.13bfa7b43c35567f86b8e675337185c7.png

Pretty good chance this period will show something and even the minimum of a progressive NW flow, there will be some kind of weather disrupting New England even if it’s only lake enhanced.

Edited by Poconosnow
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12z navgem h5

 

 

BA1B4D5B-810C-4C73-B174-8626058F66AB.gif

597990C4-C250-494E-A9F7-47BD37C589EF.gif

Very similar to gfs at 12z

F2661C3C-0F9C-4785-8B41-FF6ABD2FB822.png.fbfc9c7e9ce0fc0fc7440b560c6388fd.png

If the corollary details the gfs it should slow up in the coming runs and maybe we see something more than lake enhancement form 

Edited by Poconosnow

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18 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

🙂

Well the organic signals and wavespacing were always there so I could have opened it awhile back. 

It’s always a hoot to open a thread when there’s 0 model guidance, but I don’t mind and it’s also a holiday!

This mornings navgem run made it pretty apparent the flow for this period was a changin’

We have a double split flow in the pacific occurring while the prior storm is at our doorstep.  

CF19CEFF-1D4B-4E29-B353-F99CF9108675.png.13bfa7b43c35567f86b8e675337185c7.png

Pretty good chance this period will show something and even the minimum of a progressive NW flow, there will be some kind of weather disrupting New England even if it’s only lake enhanced.

I'm confident a storm will track from roughly Texas into the NE. Details associated with the track, position, or magnitude of any east coast low are characteristically muddy, but I'm confident a wet storm will encounter a cold air mass resulting in widespread wintry impacts. I favor inland relative to coastal locations, but we'll see soon enough!

Threads started without model support are my personal favorite

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I guess the possibility exists for this time period, but, there also seems to be a pretty good signal for the time frame of 11/26-28th. But.. I will wait to open a thread for that until we get through this Thurs/Fri event ( unless someone else feels inclined to do it 😊😊 ). 

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5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I guess the possibility exists for this time period, but, there also seems to be a pretty good signal for the time frame of 11/26-28th. But.. I will wait to open a thread for that until we get through this Thurs/Fri event ( unless someone else feels inclined to do it 😊😊 ). 

26th was already opened before this.

Since this period got bunny hopped and it’s a big travel holiday I decided to open this thread to discuss any possible disruptions.

Edited by Poconosnow
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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.thumb.png.bcdbf8c66f2eab62c1f0a3892a0142e6.png

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5 hours ago, Poconosnow said:

26th was already opened before this.

Since this period got bunny hopped and it’s a big travel holiday I decided to open this thread to discuss any possible disruptions.

My bad!? Lol but, yeah. I agree. The holiday does take precidence over the following week. 

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51 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

My bad!? Lol but, yeah. I agree. The holiday does take precidence over the following week. 

What’s interesting is that a storm from an ULL forms the day after turkey day then possibly decides to turn up the coast on the latest 18z gfs 

the bsr specifically had two separate signals on the 22 and the 26th

its a very interesting period coming up and I do think a large storm is brewing. 

Edited by Poconosnow
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something is truly brewing...someone once told me "the best storms are the ones you don't see until a few days out"..i forgot who and which season but boy was he correct

Edited by shaulov4
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Interaction between this weekends clipper and the SW energy entering stage right early next week needs to be monitored closely.

12z NAM is suggesting more northern stream energy that could pull the subtropical disturbance east a bit quicker than global models indicate. If this is the case then subtropical moisture will be interacting with chilly air as soon as it enters the southern plains. Could be another early season snow storm for NM/TX

Spoiler

1071022536_11-1400zGFSh96.png.83c49665287da4dac61d14b0758d52b6.png1876250314_11-1412zNAMh84.png.af73dc08eee78bc8381716331bb13b08.png

 

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