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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Poconosnow

November 19-22, 2018 | Turkey Day

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29 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

Gfs and cmc h5

 

2EE70B1D-1B40-40AD-82BB-766273831E3D.png

5F7A732D-EA79-4356-BACA-D86EE260EF2A.png

All eyes on the energy in the SW. There doesn't appear to be much northern stream energy to get frisky with, but that could change. 

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I don't think I've seen the BSR used for the west coast, but it's worth noting that the 500 mb pattern is characteristic of what the 12z Euro depicts. Ridge across the Pac NW, positively tilted trough extending SW from the northern plains, and more-or-less zonal flow across northern Mexico. In my opinion, the biggest difference is positioning of the SW low and I'm not convinced models are properly resolving that feature.

Spoiler

1613088261_11-1412zEuroh96.png.e2b14d5474af2aca1b6271b790131e7e.png822914656_BSR11-1812z.gif.2a1adcedb17ec6e6060863ca5c3be3aa.gif

 

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie

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Pushing it back till the 22 so still 180+ out 

got a lil phase goin in with this run and some dirty inverted trough action for MJ 😛😛

 

57BE1BA1-8B1D-4B06-979A-5C34780A4406.png

Edited by Poconosnow

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18z z500 48hr trend 

603B27B9-0475-4CEB-8A0C-DBA7531349E4.png.43ab5e14edad1da67d996d2c2f5fd797.png

frankly that’s pretty impressive.  The current modulation is fun to watch 

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2 hours ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

I don't think I've seen the BSR used for the west coast, but it's worth noting that the 500 mb pattern is characteristic of what the 12z Euro depicts. Ridge across the Pac NW, positively tilted trough extending SW from the northern plains, and more-or-less zonal flow across northern Mexico. In my opinion, the biggest difference is positioning of the SW low and I'm not convinced models are properly resolving that feature.

  Hide contents

1613088261_11-1412zEuroh96.png.e2b14d5474af2aca1b6271b790131e7e.png822914656_BSR11-1812z.gif.2a1adcedb17ec6e6060863ca5c3be3aa.gif

 

At one point we had the WC on the WC of the Kamchatka Peninsula. The "true size" website had stretched out the CONUS as a whole, which better represented it.

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8 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

At one point we had the WC on the WC of the Kamchatka Peninsula. The "true size" website had stretched out the CONUS as a whole, which better represented it.

I remember that and still look at Kamchatka for PNA correlations 

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18z gefs mean with spread

4741AD95-0B35-4C01-95C2-609A151EF880.thumb.png.2afae11150ae04666bbbf7d60ad24666.png

again very impressive adjustments recently and it appears we aren’t quite done yet. Plenty of soread to the westward of mean 

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One of the 18z mrefs has a pretty large inverted trough dump over southern New England 

B85453FB-707E-4436-B3AA-798067FB5821.thumb.jpeg.e4b041ba022e5a2535c220fcc7a6d6f0.jpeg

Impossible to forecast, just found it neat looking 

Edited by Poconosnow
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Pretty much every single GEFS member has a decent northern stream shortwave and something cookin' in the Gulf. If only the split jets found a way to get frisky farther west. 

 

Spoiler

11-15 00z GEFS Members h144.png11-15 00z GEFS 250mb h144.png

 

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie

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If we shift the northern stream west and/or slow it down ~12 hours and shift the GoM low about 200-300 miles north then we're in business. This doesn't seem too far-fetched and the next couple 00/12z runs will be interesting as the ongoing EC storm system departs stage right.

Spoiler

1560177620_11-1512zGFSh180slp.png.dd46b1b47c8b7458a5c904a4e8cc4d00.png1121422400_11-1512zGFSh180500mb.png.5f86bf55d85a6dffceb17fc0e8ca4691.png

 

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie

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I cherry picked a ensemble member solution from the 12z GEFS and I'm just going to leave it here. Nothing to see really:

1241114560_11-1512zGEFSmember.png.b78ba1a0f7fb4c231f943a6564290570.png316138615_11-1512zGEFSmemberh2.png.5fcbaeb78981871f3dea3dd1d561c6f3.png

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie

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I definitely see room for this time frame to be something more than advertised. Something is definitely brewing in the western Gulf and and impressive North Pacific jet streak is digging across the northern plains that will interact with the cold front shown in blue and eventually the GoM disturbance too. 

11-15 00 NAM h84.png

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie
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3 hours ago, jdrenken said:

Day 7 WPC vs GFS

d7500diffwbg.gif.e9e736aa31b2008e0ba08a3188b7d7da.gif

 

Along with rest of their forecast..

5dayfcst_wbg_conus (1).gif

That first image is telling enough ... the West Coast is busted :police-smiley-emoticon:

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie
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Imagine a Thanksgiving Day - end of month type bomb after today? We would go into Dec 1 with crazy seasonal totals already. Imagine 2 before Dec 1? There is, of course, another possibility around the 30th. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards
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If only someone would create some sort of organic forecasting method so we could have insight into chances of a storm during this time frame. 

oh well. I guess I'll make that my Christmas wish. 

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On ‎11‎/‎14‎/‎2018 at 6:35 PM, Poconosnow said:

18z z500 48hr trend 

603B27B9-0475-4CEB-8A0C-DBA7531349E4.png.43ab5e14edad1da67d996d2c2f5fd797.png

frankly that’s pretty impressive.  The current modulation is fun to watch 

that's a cccold blast

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12 minutes ago, brodoser1 said:

that's a cccold blast

That’s a 500 mb height linear trend map 

the blue color shows where the heights have trended downward over the last 48hrs and the red upwards.  Not temps

Edited by Poconosnow
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45 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

That’s a 500 mb height linear trend map 

the blue color shows where the heights have trended downward over the last 48hrs and the red upwards.  Not temps

Wait, models are trending toward more east coast troughing? I wonder if we'll see this all season long ... :i-ve-got-it:

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While I certainly am enjoying the early snow...would definitely be all for a couple pacific storms to roll into Cali and cover that state. Those firefighters certainly could use some help from ma nature right now.

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