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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Poconosnow

November 19-22, 2018 | Turkey Day

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University of Missouri IRE matched with the WPC rule...yep...should be interesting.

IRE-month.jpg

Rule is after 6 day drop, 10 day is next. So...since it was ~11 days between the last two, next is a 6 day...November 22nd.

TSER_PMSL_MRDG_DAY7_ANOMCORR.gif

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4 hours ago, jdrenken said:

University of Missouri IRE matched with the WPC rule...yep...should be interesting.

IRE-month.jpg

Rule is after 6 day drop, 10 day is next. So...since it was ~11 days between the last two, next is a 6 day...November 22nd.

TSER_PMSL_MRDG_DAY7_ANOMCORR.gif

What does this mean?  Like when whatever these drops are occur, does it signal some kind of storm somewhere?

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21 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

What does this mean?  Like when whatever these drops are occur, does it signal some kind of storm somewhere?

Each of the major drops, especially for day 7 WPC scores, the models and WPC maps will be off compared to verification.

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It ain't much, which is probably why there's not really a "home" for this one.. so, this is the closest thread .. a little nuisance snows becoming more likely north of I-80 in PA into southern NY Sunday night?  NAM trends the past 36 hours on top.  This is a T-2" type thing. 

 

gif1.thumb.gif.3d53171a8b85dc15dbaa190a4926a911.gifgif1.thumb.gif.8b128f1ee987defc8a9648a95959d0be.gif

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Then of course there's this .. looks like 3k NAM has has the cold just a tiny tad farther south.  Battle zone and waves .. fun November.

gif1.thumb.gif.5c93816ae923a94328bcda7358601928.gifpng2.thumb.png.9a22ec3ceb9e9e55e5497a3a13477ba1.pngpng1.thumb.png.8bc25fb72410cf2eda3d3a9ede9385e2.png

 

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7 hours ago, JDClapper said:

It ain't much, which is probably why there's not really a "home" for this one.. so, this is the closest thread .. a little nuisance snows becoming more likely north of I-80 in PA into southern NY Sunday night?  NAM trends the past 36 hours on top.  This is a T-2" type thing. 

GYX

A very weak 500 mb will approach from the SW Sunday night and
cross the region on Monday. FRom a dynamic standpoint it is far
from impressive, but it will ride along decent mid-level
baroclinic zone, so some thermal circulation will develop, and
will probably see a weak sfc low develop. Should be enough to
produce some light precip late Sunday into Mon morning, but
given dry air and the weak forcing, QPF is limited to around a
tenth of an inch, at most, for now. Still it will likely fall as
snow, and therefore some light accums will be possible. Lows
Sunday night will be in the evening, ranging from 15-20 in the
mtns to the mid to upper 30s on the coast and in srn NH. Highs
on Monday will generally be in the mid to upper 30s, but cooler
in the N.

%00 Mb trough axis doen`t move thru until Tue, and this will
pull some colder air down, and could sett of SHSN, with highs
Tues a few degrees cooler than Monday. The cold air will be
more noticeable Tue night when lows drop into the single digits
and teens.

A more impressive 500 mb trough, actually an extension of deep
upper lvl low over nrn Quebec, will dive into upstate NY Wed and
cross nrn New England Wed night. Best dynamics for this system
will stay N of the CWA, and will already have a cold and dry air
mass in place, but could see some SHSN or some squalls /mainly
in the N/ Wed afternoon and evening. Highs Wed will be 20-25 in
the N and in the upper 20s to low 30s in the S. The front will
cross the CWA late Wed evening, with NW flow picking up a bit,
so the cold air will fight with the downslope and prevent temps
from dropping off too much, buit it`ll still be cold with lows
Wed night into Thu morning generally ranging from around 10 in
the N to the upper teens in the south.

The cold air continue to spill in on Thu, but will be mainly
sunny. However, highs will range from 20-25 in the north to the
around 30 in the south, with a decent NW wind. NW flow will
persist into Thu night and sfc high finally builds in on Friday,
with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30.

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12z NAM gives some love to our jackpot areas of the last storm...marginal temperatures for points south, but might be good for a widespread 2-4" in the far interior. 

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

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45 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

12z NAM gives some love to our jackpot areas of the last storm...marginal temperatures for points south, but might be good for a widespread 2-4" in the far interior. 

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

NAM'd.

Not a ton of support for this, FV3 shows something, but gets going a bit too late.   I'm not sure any EPS  members bring accumulating snow to the region. 

A few SREF members do show something.  So it's hard to buy the nam currently. Would be quite the coup for the NAM.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=sz50&HH=240&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Screenshot_20181117-102706_Chrome.jpg

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2 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

NAM'd.

[SREF]

Hey, we all gotta get NAM'd a few times a year, tis tradition. 

 

And yeah, right now, the NAM is the only model showing that level of amplification. The ICON also shows a bit more "oomph" this run, but only drops about an inch or two for northern New England. We will see what the rest of the 12z suite does.

 

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8 run gfs trend gif valid 12z today 

379F6412-A3C1-4F8A-98EF-E916AEA31708.gif.e17d1cee144a1830f3283d79f206712c.gif

Sorta slowing down and digging a bit more.  With a dip in verif coming it will be neat to see where we end up with this 

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I hate to be the first one to bring out polar vortex terminology, but this system appears to be a PV lobe. Seems like the big ??? is how rapidly it goes negative tilt and I tend to prefer the faster solution advertised by the NAM

Relative to the previous storm this wave is moisture starved so I'm liking a WWA (2-4") from PA into VT and I wouldn't be surprised to see coastal Maine get some WSWs. Either way, it's nice to see that mixing won't be an issue this go around, just rain or snow. 

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Temps in the 20s (or lower) for highs on Turkey Day.  :ColdBreath:

 

 

gfs_T2m_neus_22.png

Edited by paletitsnow63
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Turkey day will be cold here in ct but that’s about it now is cold but sunny where are the storms now that it cold :ColdBreath:🥶 

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32 minutes ago, brodoser1 said:

Turkey day will be cold here in ct but that’s about it now is cold but sunny where are the storms now that it cold :ColdBreath:🥶 

Didn't we just have a storm?  Did you get any snow?

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2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Didn't we just have a storm?  Did you get any snow?

LOL: He's a good egg and just clearly wants monster hit after monster hit. Can you blame him? Still - Incoming historic winter @brodoser1. Relax - You'll see your monster blizzard (or two) before this winter is over. I'm almost 100% convinced we will all remember this winter. 

White Thanksgiving on it's way to like 1/3 of the country. That's amazing. It's possible that the % of the country seeing a white t-gives will exceed that which normally sees a white christmas. That's never happened before as far as I know and that's going back to WW1 in data I can find. 

'93-'94, and '95-'96 are true historic, outlier winters. 02'-'03 is definitely behind them but also definitely third in modern times. This fall is so far ahead of all three in both temps and snowfall totals/coverage that it's incredible. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards

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3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Didn't we just have a storm?  Did you get any snow?

Just keep this in mind when addressing brodoser1 as it pertains to every storm since he calls for rain every...single...time.

On 11/13/2018 at 1:46 PM, brodoser1 said:

so close but I just don't see any snow for coastal ct maybe just the northern hills somebody tell me I am wrong   

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27 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

Just keep this in mind when addressing brodoser1 as it pertains to every storm since he calls for rain every...single...time.

Our new storms r us. :classic_laugh:

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This event around Thanksgiving looks like the last radar posted: Cold/blustery day with snow squalls zipping across for a few hours. There's no storm here. These signals, and the ones surrounding ~Dec 3'rd, should turn all eyes to Nov 25th to Dec 5th. Possible Nor'easter and then almost guaranteed arctic blast with classic NAO blocking in place. A progressive flow tries to develop but really, really struggles with these high pressures in the East. Even if one does develop, it's either a reload or actually conducive to a storm in itself. We're in, and entering, the best fall pattern anyone could ask for.  Over the next 7-10 days? I don't get above 36 for the last 4 and the lows are 10-15. I don't remember December starting out this cold since '04 and '05. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards

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20 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Our new storms r us. :classic_laugh:

Oh yeah.  The guy from Delaware who always says "rain rain rain".  Wonder if he'll find the new site.

Edited by paletitsnow63

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Who was that Imby kid from outside philly who would always be crying the blues about it not snowing yet he would be getting a foot in his back yard and then he'd ask non stop how much he would be getting in his back yard all the time complaining that he was getting nothing in his backyard and then report it was puking snow in his back yard.....etc etc etc

 

was that storms r us?

Edited by Miller A

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