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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Poconosnow

November 19-22, 2018 | Turkey Day

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10 minutes ago, Miller A said:

Who was that Imby kid from outside philly who would always be crying the blues about it not snowing yet he would be getting a foot in his back yard and then he'd ask non stop how much he would be getting in his back yard all the time complaining that he was getting nothing in his backyard and then report it was puking snow in his back yard.....etc etc etc

Screenshot_20181117-232442.jpg.d928a6b73947bab303e991579ed52be5.jpg

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UKie suggests some advisory level snows for parts of New England.

PA_000-072_0000.gif.1fb40b452dd34908aafe41098f0d50f6.gif

GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif.b690f57a4505e17afeff6ee41f0ca3c1.gif

268417348_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000(2).gif.26234b1e24788219d51ec6d663f4ace8.gif

 

 

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Models coming into line for a little "surprise" for some...

GFS (06z): 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

12km NAM (06z):

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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Hey can’t go wrong think rain get snow ❄️ it’s a  bonus 🤣

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Like Tuesday was think we can’t be so lucky to get snow again but 😱 wake up this am and boom 💥 snow Tuesday maybe 3-5 inches :carrot:

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Lay 6 NAM runs, looks a hair deeper/sharper.

0013181a-389f-43f1-8225-0e79d3fd71b7.gif.c251a923d8ed59e433911690622d91cc.gif

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Looks like this is more of a northern event.  I'm a bit too far south.

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10 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Screenshot_20181117-232442.jpg.d928a6b73947bab303e991579ed52be5.jpg

There's not enough, or correct, emojis to express how I feel.

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NAMs sre holding their ground trying to show a "storm" with advisory type snow. 

snku_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.358c37b8ef712d0b7958c1f5a7990992.png

Snow has even crept into the ecmwf depiction

Screenshot_20181118-095639_Chrome.thumb.jpg.55aa0a97307b79bb0d2b9a94f0bb4ba9.jpg

 

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Upton AFD mentions an inch or two.   Man is it gonna be cold on Thanksgiving.  Another year I can use it as an excuse not to go into the parade! Forecast high of 27.  I promised my wife we'd see it, but only if the temps were 60+ and no rain!

Spoiler

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Guidance remains in good agreement with an amplifying pattern
developing across the lower 48 early this week as a piece of
the polar vortex breaks off and drops into Hudson Bay. This will
result in a developing longwave trough east of the Rockies with
a high amplitude ridge to the west.

At the sfc, a weak frontal system will track from the mid
Mississippi valley into the Mid Atlantic states by evening and
continue through southern New England tonight. WAA will ensue
tonight ahead of a warm front with temps slowly rising in the
low levels. Pcpn is expected to gradually expand southward,
although NYC and Long Island may remain mostly dry until
Mon night and Tue. With the warming low level temperatures any
snow across locations well inland this evening is expected to
change over to plain rain overnight. Less than an inch of snow
accum is expected before the changeover.

Weak low pres continues towards the Canadian Maritimes on Monday
with its cold front slowly pushing south of the area. PoPs
decrease Mon aftn/eve as weak ridging moves through ahead of the
next wave of low pres. There is some uncertainty in the track of
this low which will depend on where the energy in the base of
the upper trough tracks and the interaction between this and
additional southern stream energy ejecting from the SE coast.
This will also determine where the axis of heaviest pcpn will
be. Pcpn overspreads the area late Mon night with all NWP
guidance tracking the low S of Long Island on Tue. Colder temps
across northern zones should gradually change the pcpn back over
to snow into Tue morning. Boundary layer temps are progged to
become marginally warm as the pcpn is lifting out which may lead
to a changeover back to the liquid state before ending. At any
rate, boundary layer temps will be marginal across the interior
where accumulating snow is expected late Mon night into Tue,
which will result in a wet snow. As such only anticipate 1-2
inches of accumulation. If the axis of heaviest pcpn shifts a
bit further N or the wetter GFS verifies, could be flirting
with advsy level snow. Areas from the CT coast and south are
expected to remain all rain through the duration of the event.

Temperatures are expected to range between 5 and 10 degrees
below normal through Tue.

 

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12km NAM (top) and 3km NAM (bottom) seem to disagree on temperature a bit...

refcmp_ptype.us_ne.png sn10_acc.us_ne.png

refcmp_ptype.us_ne.png sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

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GFS and Euro

1854733123_11-20gfssnow11-186z.thumb.png.bd8a4cb9710d25d115919c2bf96b0fbc.png

1540291047_11-200zeurosnow11-18.thumb.png.c63939f6402a2c3f51113a36f4c94964.png

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15 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

GFS and Euro

1854733123_11-20gfssnow11-186z.thumb.png.bd8a4cb9710d25d115919c2bf96b0fbc.png

1540291047_11-200zeurosnow11-18.thumb.png.c63939f6402a2c3f51113a36f4c94964.png

I don't think the ecmwf had much at all 2 runs ago,  might be playing

830667628_download(1).jpeg.ff5bb9be7b44b2671da75d308a6bf140.jpeg

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36 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Upton AFD mentions an inch or two.   Man is it gonna be cold on Thanksgiving.  Another year I can use it as an excuse not to go into the parade! Forecast high of 27.  I promised my wife we'd see it, but only if the temps were 60+ and no rain!

  Hide contents


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Guidance remains in good agreement with an amplifying pattern
developing across the lower 48 early this week as a piece of
the polar vortex breaks off and drops into Hudson Bay. This will
result in a developing longwave trough east of the Rockies with
a high amplitude ridge to the west.

At the sfc, a weak frontal system will track from the mid
Mississippi valley into the Mid Atlantic states by evening and
continue through southern New England tonight. WAA will ensue
tonight ahead of a warm front with temps slowly rising in the
low levels. Pcpn is expected to gradually expand southward,
although NYC and Long Island may remain mostly dry until
Mon night and Tue. With the warming low level temperatures any
snow across locations well inland this evening is expected to
change over to plain rain overnight. Less than an inch of snow
accum is expected before the changeover.

Weak low pres continues towards the Canadian Maritimes on Monday
with its cold front slowly pushing south of the area. PoPs
decrease Mon aftn/eve as weak ridging moves through ahead of the
next wave of low pres. There is some uncertainty in the track of
this low which will depend on where the energy in the base of
the upper trough tracks and the interaction between this and
additional southern stream energy ejecting from the SE coast.
This will also determine where the axis of heaviest pcpn will
be. Pcpn overspreads the area late Mon night with all NWP
guidance tracking the low S of Long Island on Tue. Colder temps
across northern zones should gradually change the pcpn back over
to snow into Tue morning. Boundary layer temps are progged to
become marginally warm as the pcpn is lifting out which may lead
to a changeover back to the liquid state before ending. At any
rate, boundary layer temps will be marginal across the interior
where accumulating snow is expected late Mon night into Tue,
which will result in a wet snow. As such only anticipate 1-2
inches of accumulation. If the axis of heaviest pcpn shifts a
bit further N or the wetter GFS verifies, could be flirting
with advsy level snow. Areas from the CT coast and south are
expected to remain all rain through the duration of the event.

Temperatures are expected to range between 5 and 10 degrees
below normal through Tue.

 

Seems like you promised to go on the condition of an extremely unlikely circumstance. I get the sense that you aren't too fond of parades :police-smiley-emoticon:

Anyways, from my experience this kind of system is probably going to result in a narrow, but intense frontogenic band. I suspect there will be some impressive higher elevation totals. Plus there appears to be a follow-up clipper in this thread's date range that could put some icing on the proverbial cake. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a lucky mountain location at the intersection of these two systems get ~10"

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie
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1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

NAMs sre holding their ground trying to show a "storm" with advisory type snow. 

snku_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.358c37b8ef712d0b7958c1f5a7990992.png

Snow has even crept into the ecmwf depiction

Screenshot_20181118-095639_Chrome.thumb.jpg.55aa0a97307b79bb0d2b9a94f0bb4ba9.jpg

 

KALB mentions possible moderate snow for Western Mass & northwest Conn. in their HWO.

Quote

000
FLUS41 KALY 180903
HWOALY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
403 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-191200-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-
403 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut and
western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A low pressure system may track close enough to Long Island late
Monday night into Tuesday morning for a light to moderate snowfall
especially for the Litchfield Hills and Berkshires. If confidence
increases for a moderate snowfall, then a winter weather advisory
maybe needed later in time.

 

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12 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Seems like you promised to go on the condition of an extremely unlikely circumstance. I get the sense that you aren't too fond of parades :police-smiley-emoticon:

Anyways, from my experience this kind of system is probably going to result in a narrow, but intense frontogenic band. I suspect there will be some impressive higher elevation totals. Plus there appears to be a follow-up clipper in this thread's date range that could put some icing on the proverbial cake. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a lucky mountain location at the intersection of these two systems get ~10"

I loved the first comment because that is almost verbatim what crossed my mind. LOL - nice to know that Stretch has a keen sense of humor. 

Nothing to disagree with comment 2 either. Ski locations probably loving this. 

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33 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Seems like you promised to go on the condition of an extremely unlikely circumstance. I get the sense that you aren't too fond of parades :police-smiley-emoticon:

Anyways, from my experience this kind of system is probably going to result in a narrow, but intense frontogenic band. I suspect there will be some impressive higher elevation totals. Plus there appears to be a follow-up clipper in this thread's date range that could put some icing on the proverbial cake. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a lucky mountain location at the intersection of these two systems get ~10"

I love a parade! (Can't believe there is no gif out there from that vacation scene).

No, I'd go to the Macy's parade if it didn't require getting up at 3am, fighting crowds, wasn't 27°. 

 

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Ukie with a slight bump up in qpf 

18/12z

PA_000-072_0000.gif.47e6d9229987f2d9475015e5931ac36c.gif

Previous run

723860201_PA_000-072_0000(1).gif.95243d990b5f91e9c5850625418f9b9a.gif

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I just read my NWS for Thanksgiving and Friday, and I was shocked. They are calling for a low of 6 above for Thursday night/Friday morning in Binghamton. The last time we fell into single digits on a November day was when we reached 9 above on 11/30/13. Before that, it was 11/25/05, when it also reached 9 degrees. Prior to that, it was 11/28/96 (our coldest Thanksgiving), when it again fell to 9 degrees. That was the first single-digit low since 11/22/87 (the last time it fell below 9 degrees), when it fell to 8. The last time we had single digits in November before that was 11/30/76, when we had our all-time November low of 3 above. We could be looking at our coldest November day in 42 years. 

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We were supposed to get two inches of snow beginning at midmorning, but I have hardly seen a flake all day--only overcast.  NWS hinted at there was a northward shift, which means overcast for us.

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3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Ukie with a slight bump up in qpf 

18/12z

PA_000-072_0000.gif.47e6d9229987f2d9475015e5931ac36c.gif

Previous run

723860201_PA_000-072_0000(1).gif.95243d990b5f91e9c5850625418f9b9a.gif

UK makes a respectable storm, even a 1 pixel lollipop (~8" at 10:1) in southern NH. Irrespective of whether or not WSW's are issued, I'm confident some lucky folks will wind up with >6" of fresh powder during this time frame. 

I have to wonder how this November's snow cover in the northeast will compare to historical records. 

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