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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

TheDayAfterTommorow

December 2-4, 2018 | Winter Storm Potential

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Good morning everyone,

Ooh, my first time opening a thread on the new forum! Let us begin:

 

The long range GFS and FV-3 GFS have both been repeatedly advertising a storm in the early days of December. As always at this range, the important thing is a storm signal, rather than any specifics at a particular level. The signal is certainly there: here are the 06z runs of the GFS and FV-3 GFS, respectively.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png

 

This potential also has support from certain Organic Methods, specifically, the Bearing Sea Rule, which displays two separate potentials; one around December 2nd, and a few days later on December 5th.

18_1202-12.gif 18_1205-00.gif

 

Moving on to teleconnections; GFS ensembles seem to suggest a favorable -NAO, -AO, and neutral to +PNA pattern in the long range. It should be noted that these ensembles change quite often at this distance. 

nao.sprd2.gif ao.sprd2.gif pna.sprd2.gif

 

Finally, here is the CPC single month forecast for December, released yesterday. It seems to suggest a favorable trough location over the month as a whole; we may, perhaps, see this pattern begin to establish itself during the first few days of the month.

2043853787_ScreenShot2018-11-16at10_38_19AM.thumb.png.7d5d18ba5f47b24f9944ae06ccaec71e.png

 

 

Again, this is very long range, nothing more than a signal to watch at this point. Still, we have early support from operational models, OFM, and teleconnections. What we must now watch over the next few days is if the signal stays consistent, or if it vanishes. Time will tell, as it always does.

 

TDAT

 

 

Edited by TheDayAfterTommorow
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Appreciate the thread 

keep your eye on the west pacific

possible typhoon rule storm this one 🙂

Edited by Poconosnow
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This is the image of interest to me -Dec 1st

D518D9D6-603E-410E-82B1-CA02C026B6BA.gif.4b732aa68f0f0da0d308f2a48dc880eb.gif

And the Tr and ear 

6B192226-5762-4547-8AF3-84514395B345.thumb.png.9ae3eb30cea364748233467019e598c6.png

Ridge west trough east and a typhoon recurve yanking on the west pac heights 

I can foresee a large nothern stream drive for this period 

Edited by Poconosnow

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4 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

This is the image of interest to me 

[EAR]

And the Tr and ear 

[Typhoon Rule and EAR]

Ridge west trough east and a typhoon recurve yanking on the west pac heights 

I can foresee a large nothern stream drive for this period 

For some reason I didn't think the EAR (on cranky's page) went out that far...guess I should have checked.

 

Yeah, a lot of different indicators suggesting an event of some sort...a good old fashioned signal. Now we wait and watch. 

Edited by TheDayAfterTommorow

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16 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

For some reason I didn't think the EAR (on cranky's page) went out that far...guess I should have checked.

 

Yeah, a lot of different indicators suggesting an event of some sort...a good old fashioned signal. Now we wait and watch. 

The east Asia rule is not something that is only calculated on crankys webpage

you can look at modeled east Asia and the west pacific on the gfs, the euro, the cmc and Jma 

be careful though as modeling in east Asia is very volatile.

japan is approximately the east coast correlate with the city of Aomori being around 40 longitude 

So for example the modeled map above shows a possible ridge west (+pna) trough east and a recurving typhoon.  All good signals in a 6-8 day correlation to the East coast. 

A recurving typhoon especially since it basically “pulls” on the heights in the west pacific which has a direct effect on how the wave train and heights react downstream here on the east coast. 

Think of the assimilation of the typhoon into the west pac heights as a hand cracking a whip. The wave in the whip then travels downstream and the “crack” of the whip is here on the east coast.  Timed properly not only will a recurving typhoon create a possible east coast trough, it can also help assist in cyclogenesis of a developing storm. All about those atmospheric waves yo

Edited by Poconosnow
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1 minute ago, Poconosnow said:

The east Asia rule is not something that is only calculated on crankys webpage

 you can look at modeled east Asia and the west pacific on the gfs, the euro, the cmc and Jma 

be careful though as modeling in east Asia is very volatile.

japan is approximately the east coast correlate with the city of Aomori being around 40 longitude 

So for example the modeled map above shows a possible ridge west (+pna) trough east and a recurvubg typhoon.  All good signals in a 6-8 day correlation to the East coast. 

A recurivg typhoon especially since it basically “pulls” on the heights in the west pacific which has a direct effect on how the wave train and heights react downstream here on the east coast. 

 Think of the assimilation of the typhoon into the west pac heights as a hand cracking a whip. The wave in the whip then travels downstream and the “crack” if the whip is here on the east coast.  Timed properly not only will a recurving typhoon crest a possible east coast trough, it can also help assist in cyclogenesis if a developing storm. All about those atmospheric waves yo

Makes sense...thanks for the explanation. I've used cranky's because trying to do the overlay in my head is...frustrating. Cut TDAT some slack. :classic_laugh:

Edited by TheDayAfterTommorow
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7 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

Makes sense...thanks for the explanation. I've used cranky's because trying to do the overlay in my head is...frustrating. Cut TDAT some slack. :classic_laugh:

Just think of Japan as the east coast of the USA and north central China and Mongolia the west and go from there

height rises over nothern China and Mongolia are usually a good sign of a +pna signal 

 

Edited by Poconosnow
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Im only speaking in a very general sense for looking at maps without an overlay 

point correlation in your work is precise 

 

also I would not get too far ahead with this storm on numerical models.  In an atmospheric sense it’s very far out.  Wavetrain snapshots display the signal and teles May look favorable... but temper expectations on any result on deterministic models.  There are a few disturbances to get past till we even look at this period. 

Edited by Poconosnow
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Not to mention the first week of December is a heavily favored time period we historically get our "first" snow storms. And this year would just continue the storm trains that have been relentless for months, hence our ridiculous "wettest" year charge we are making.

Edited by plowxpress

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Interesting discussion here. Something to watch for sure. I've often read on the Accuweather forum but never really understood it. Getting more pieces here to digest. Thank you.

 As a side note, the euro weeklies has a trough in the east and cold temperatures building in in this time frame.

Edited by RickRD

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Well, all I will say about this is - "looks familiar"

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png.3f8c6ed2d97bd646389da7bca6432335.png

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2 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Well, all I will say about this is - "looks familiar"

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png.3f8c6ed2d97bd646389da7bca6432335.png

Gonna be a long winter, isn't it? 

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3 minutes ago, ryanduff said:

Gonna be a long winter, isn't it? 

Gawd I hope not. (goes back to viewing the Visit VI web page)

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21 minutes ago, ryanduff said:

Gonna be a long winter, isn't it? 

So you are telling me that trying to build a 3500sq ft house this winter will be challenging? :winter_smilies_0012:

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5 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

So you are telling me that trying to build a 3500sq ft house this winter will be challenging? :winter_smilies_0012:

Prolly not too bad, unless you have excavated the footers yet. :ColdBreath:

:classic_laugh:

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15 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Prolly not too bad, unless you have excavated the footers yet. :ColdBreath:

:classic_laugh:

Foundation is in at least, barely got that done.  It's easier working in the snow than rain, so now that it's basically winter, I'd prefer snow going forward. I think.. :classic_laugh:

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1 minute ago, MaineJay said:

Foundation is in at least, barely got that done.  It's easier working in the snow than rain, so now that it's basically winter, I'd prefer snow going forward. I think.. :classic_laugh:

I'm glad to see that you realize that I meant "unless you have not...."  :classic_biggrin:

Tarps, tarp cities, tarp compounds - got me and my building buds through many of both rain and snow situations. Not the ideal solution, but "workable" (as I'm sure you, well, know)

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24 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

So you are telling me that trying to build a 3500sq ft house this winter will be challenging? :winter_smilies_0012:

The sooner you get the exterior up, the better. :classic_laugh:

Can't plow snow out of a half built house. Gotta shovel that stuff. 

My parents learned this lesson the hard way. And they were building in Pennsylvania. 

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Just now, ryanduff said:

The sooner you get the exterior up, the better. :classic_laugh:

Can't plow snow out of a half built house. Gotta shovel that stuff. 

My parents learned this lesson the hard way. And they were building in Pennsylvania. 

Um...ouch

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Two typhoons recurving on 06z gfs 

first one spawns by the equator in the pacific and makes into the south China see while the other spawns in the equatorial pacific and heads NNW until recurving in unison around the 24-25th

the former becoming a formiddable typhoon reaching 913mb.  Together these would most certainly have an affect on heights in the western PAC as a typhoon tag-team lol

 

1A0D4E12-E07E-40ED-8178-2CD147778035.png

Edited by Poconosnow

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37 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

Two typhoons recurving on 06z gfs 

first one spawns by the equator in the pacific and makes into the south China see while the other spawns in the equatorial pacific and heads NNW until recurving in unison around the 24-25th

the former becoming a formiddable typhoon reaching 913mb.  Together these would most certainly have an affect on heights in the western PAC as a typhoon tag-team lol

 

1A0D4E12-E07E-40ED-8178-2CD147778035.png

12z gfs swaps the power up and gives it to our latter typhoon.  Now that drops to 913mb

 

7990071E-31ED-45C9-A259-FA3F7BDFC54E.png

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