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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

TheDayAfterTommorow

December 2-4, 2018 | Winter Storm Potential

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EPS is on it.  I cut frames out down south in case you wonder why it moves so fast.

1996119034_11-17epsrun.gif.f8a5c22be54c6a64703224ebe047d2a9.gif

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Closer look at the NE with the EPS and 850 temps

1287619524_1-17epsprecip850run.gif.3be911f3ef7480284df739314cc6461c.gif

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12z gfs using the 26th as a 5050 and just a inundation of energy flowing south kicking up plumes of moisture from the gom with an hp sitting over the high lats

good ingredients for sure

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18 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Closer look at the NE with the EPS and 850 temps

[EPS]

I'll bet the clown map off that is just ludicrous, lol

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That’s the eps control fwiw

always good to differentiate the control from the mean in case others are wondering

The control is a lower resolution run that it used to initialize the other 50 ensemble members for the eps.  It perturbs the initial conditions that the control throws out and the resultant is 50 other unique runs.  The average of those is the eps mean.  Might be a good glossary add.  Control, mean, spread,  deviation, normalized deviation etc etc 

Edited by Poconosnow
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That low res control run really shows how potent the ingredients we have lining up end of month are. Long ways out so one step at a time 

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Not sure if this is the right system.  But mere eye candy for now.   This would be an absolute monster of a storm with ideal components 

2F990663-97BC-4596-BB23-D7F80A8D6B42.png

1AE5416D-13AF-4200-A80F-1E9F73AD909D.png

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Trying to be responsible. It’s like two weeks out. But yes, it’s ludicrous for areas like EPA, Catskills, HV, ADK, VT, NH, most of ME.  Really all of New England except SE MA, RI and SE CT. LI is left out too. 

2 hours ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

I'll bet the clown map off that is just ludicrous, lol

 

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3 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Not sure if this is the right system.  But mere eye candy for now.   This would be an absolute monster of a storm with ideal components 

2F990663-97BC-4596-BB23-D7F80A8D6B42.png

1AE5416D-13AF-4200-A80F-1E9F73AD909D.png

No actually I believe that would be the follow up to this period. 

90EA619F-BB0A-4A9A-9B25-02C891861B9A.png.e6a00094ff19d24e27379348f5d183e4.png

Above is what occurs on the 30th, just wide right.

The gfs is notorious for rushing patterns and is often a day or two early in the long range.

purely off bsr signals the dates would be the 26th, the 30-1st and then the 5-6th.

imho the dates for this disturbance are more likely to be the 30-1st.  However there is plenty of time between now and then and another storm to sort out first 

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Here are the two separate bsr signals

30-1st

CA92B516-EA52-4B68-8236-D004286380F8.gif.290ba261101286f3c53a9ae391d634ec.gif

 

5-6th

9FA2FA4D-7A70-4DC9-85EA-8D044E083054.gif.e0973f1c2a4daff42890d5c18ca05ec6.gif

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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FWIW 

the 12z cfs and Fim have a strong coastal signal too

35D4DDDF-431D-460B-86D8-CB8C99CA9EFF.thumb.png.650f6f75ca629d01157c63be88dded59.png65D3C5B9-42A7-4AC6-89FE-3424E785FDFD.thumb.png.90e30226e74e5258cd12282b7e417938.png

Fim and cfs even teeing up the follow up in the 4 corners 

Edited by Poconosnow

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7 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Closer look at the NE with the EPS and 850 temps

1287619524_1-17epsprecip850run.gif.3be911f3ef7480284df739314cc6461c.gif

More ️ 

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Long way away it will flop flip belly up and bellyflop be for we know what coming 

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7 minutes ago, brodoser1 said:

More ️ 

Cold signal is there for this period, unless that umbrella is for snow better not pay attention to surface temps for now. For all we know there might not even be a storm. (Although one of the strongest signals I've seen since December of 2009 so....)

Edited by shaulov4

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2 hours ago, Poconosnow said:

18z fv3 for posterity sake

 

35B4FFD7-5215-408C-8135-B6713C24BF52.png

Thats the 12z.  I don’t think the 18z upgraded yet.  

Edited by PA road DAWG

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2 hours ago, brodoser1 said:

Long way away it will flop flip belly up and bellyflop be for we know what coming 

Long way away but there have been strong signals at a huge east coast storm around the Nov 28 - Dec 3 period for a long time now. I don't think I've ever seen such strong signals, so consistent, beginning so far out. 

If this thing wrapped up the way a few of these runs are showing, there would be a ton of places surpassing their SEASONAL averages by Dec 3/4th. Unprecedented. 

Be careful what we wish for. I really did stress the bite to that last storm and there's just a ton of things lining up for a huge HECS going into end of this fall. Even if this misses, we're still almost 3 weeks away from calendar winter when it "misses". By Christmas, at least one of these will hit. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards
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28 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Thats the 12z.  I don’t think the 18z upgraded yet.  

Yep your right

I knew Levi was having normally scheduled maintenance on TT today so I went to pivotal not realizing they dont compute off hour fv3 runs.  Thanks 

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Independent from what happens in this storm, a real blast of cold air looks likely from Dec 3 on. Still to remind folks: Nobody ever debated Jan-Apr of this year. Every source predicts record low temps and snowfall. Everything we're getting in what was universally forecast to be above average and snowless, is a huge bonus. 

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