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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

TheDayAfterTommorow

December 2-4, 2018 | Winter Storm Potential

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0z EPS not showing much today for this time frame.  It does develop a low in the GOM but shears it out, or something...

352207218_11-180zeps.thumb.png.c876d5dc860bbb58501b8a3c9eb23275.png

1908362850_11-180zeps360.thumb.png.120e5e725ce2cd62c6d84cd23adc4910.png

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FV3 is quiet

 

11-18 0z fv3.png

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GFS 0z and 6z at least showing a storm

Spoiler

0z

1838435144_11-18ozgfs.thumb.png.f462f796ff189d72ad910694580af177.png

6z

1845771726_11-18gfs.thumb.png.e1e16daf939faeffa6c4ba33eb7c6571.png

 

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7F57B67E-B5F8-4A95-909D-BF688EAF1785.thumb.png.abdbd345e0981c047ebd9e8f9b67f383.png

almost pointless to do pbp for this currently

i mean look at that, gonna take awhile to resolve any of the mesoscale details involved with these ingredients 

you have a split flow in the pacific and a possible omega block downstream 

so upstream and downstream will be giving the models fits 

Edited by Poconosnow

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The SOI has been stagnant for quite some time except for a 10pt drop between the 11th and 12th. Per my SOI research, days 13th-15th of the 20pt drop between the 15th-17th match this period.

El-Nino-Fall-SOI-Drop-Day13.gif

El-Nino-Fall-SOI-Drop-Day14.gif

El-Nino-Fall-SOI-Drop-Day15.gif

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10 hours ago, StretchCT said:

0z EPS not showing much today for this time frame.  It does develop a low in the GOM but shears it out, or something...

352207218_11-180zeps.thumb.png.c876d5dc860bbb58501b8a3c9eb23275.png

1908362850_11-180zeps360.thumb.png.120e5e725ce2cd62c6d84cd23adc4910.png

Yea. 

EPS mean has nothing much.

EPS Control has a storm over southern NJ.

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Since there is no thread for the 30th I'll just post this here

 image.png.f3ada1ee110907a17bbc314fef7b558c.png

Arctic suppression this early?

Aside from that. There's this one, GFS shows late development

image.png.d847a9291b218b2baab28ec875200d48.png

I have a feeling we will hear "GFS is west" and then "GFS went east" way too many times in the upcoming weeks....welcome back everyone.

 

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6z GFS

534712137_11-196zgfsfor12-1.thumb.png.b61ccf7747d5373e3e6d8893aba79935.png

0z eps

180379397_11-190zepsfor12-1.thumb.png.5baeaa5ba753c7de36f9ba3752d9ceea.png

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FV3 - a little earlier than the others, assuming I'm even posting about storm that originally started this thread.  This confusion will happen when opening threads 10+ days prior.  

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

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59 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

FV3 - a little earlier than the others, assuming I'm even posting about storm that originally started this thread.  This confusion will happen when opening threads 10+ days prior.  

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

personally, I think it would be a good idea to just have a general long range thread for anything more than a week out.  then once the timing is a bit more set open individual threads for specific storms.  just my opinion.

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3 minutes ago, kdskidoo said:

personally, I think it would be a good idea to just have a general long range thread for anything more than a week out.  then once the timing is a bit more set open individual threads for specific storms.  just my opinion.

In the past, our members and moderators would keep tabs on the various systems and adjust the thread dates as necessary. Yes, trying to get a "bead" on a specific storm between 7-14 days is rough, but it can be done. Also, a good bit of responsibility lies on the thread's creator to adjust.

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On 11/17/2018 at 11:54 AM, Poconosnow said:

That’s the eps control fwiw

always good to differentiate the control from the mean in case others are wondering

The control is a lower resolution run that it used to initialize the other 50 ensemble members for the eps.  It perturbs the initial conditions that the control throws out and the resultant is 50 other unique runs.  The average of those is the eps mean.  Might be a good glossary add.  Control, mean, spread,  deviation, normalized deviation etc etc 

Ensemble - a model that runs a control, then makes slight changes to initial conditions to generate different outcomes by its members.  Typically there will be the control run, the individual member runs and the mean of the members. It can also be used to describe the compilation or blending of different models, as in the AccuWX model and the Florida State Superensemble

EPS - European Ensemble.  Runs a little later than the operational Euro 2x per day and out to 360 hrs.  There is a model mean, control and then individual members. 

 

 

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18z fv3 gfs made me wet the bed in fantasy land.  Surprised not more people posted it 

7E1AF45C-5515-4680-A4AE-3148F2243B8A.gif

Edited by PA road DAWG

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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

18z fv3 gfs made me wet the bed in fantasy land.  Surprised not more people posted it 

7E1AF45C-5515-4680-A4AE-3148F2243B8A.gif

It was 1.5-2.0" qpf for CTP and NEPA. Wet those pants.

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EPS still on it.   Nice deepening storm.  Most of PA sees at least a foot with northern CPA and the Southern Tier and western Catskills picking up 18-24". Don't have my gif maker at work, so images in spoiler.  6z GFS shunts a weak storm to the south.  FV3 says mostly rain.

788723296_11-206zfv312-1hr312.png.6bdb7922ed7e32bf86c7468d073f0863.png

Spoiler

EPS for 12-1

1273113795_11-200zeps12-1hr282.thumb.png.b7a3552c664d9cdecef5e73bf1f8eb9e.png

194727628_11-200zeps12-1hr294.thumb.png.b108a3af5e6d7f39a8a2428999e4bf2b.png

711547524_11-200zeps12-1hr300.thumb.png.da78e09bc284ab8911d1c317ec640851.png

1477405361_11-200zeps12-zhr306.thumb.png.4f955f63cea590136a6413d47f7e4ec4.png

749523155_11-200zeps12-1hr312.thumb.png.6b480dbef82d29a83c739e8d2a9d49b6.png

 

 

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20 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

EPS still on it.   Nice deepening storm.  Most of PA sees at least a foot with northern CPA and the Southern Tier and western Catskills picking up 18-24". Don't have my gif maker at work, so images in spoiler.  6z GFS shunts a weak storm to the south.  FV3 says mostly rain.

788723296_11-206zfv312-1hr312.png.6bdb7922ed7e32bf86c7468d073f0863.png

  Hide contents

EPS for 12-1

1273113795_11-200zeps12-1hr282.thumb.png.b7a3552c664d9cdecef5e73bf1f8eb9e.png

194727628_11-200zeps12-1hr294.thumb.png.b108a3af5e6d7f39a8a2428999e4bf2b.png

711547524_11-200zeps12-1hr300.thumb.png.da78e09bc284ab8911d1c317ec640851.png

1477405361_11-200zeps12-zhr306.thumb.png.4f955f63cea590136a6413d47f7e4ec4.png

749523155_11-200zeps12-1hr312.thumb.png.6b480dbef82d29a83c739e8d2a9d49b6.png

 

 

Looks like the GFS is having a hard time handling this pattern....whats new 😌

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53 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

EPS still on it.   Nice deepening storm.  Most of PA sees at least a foot with northern CPA and the Southern Tier and western Catskills picking up 18-24". Don't have my gif maker at work, so images in spoiler.  6z GFS shunts a weak storm to the south.  FV3 says mostly rain.

788723296_11-206zfv312-1hr312.png.6bdb7922ed7e32bf86c7468d073f0863.png

  Hide contents

EPS for 12-1

1273113795_11-200zeps12-1hr282.thumb.png.b7a3552c664d9cdecef5e73bf1f8eb9e.png

194727628_11-200zeps12-1hr294.thumb.png.b108a3af5e6d7f39a8a2428999e4bf2b.png

711547524_11-200zeps12-1hr300.thumb.png.da78e09bc284ab8911d1c317ec640851.png

1477405361_11-200zeps12-zhr306.thumb.png.4f955f63cea590136a6413d47f7e4ec4.png

749523155_11-200zeps12-1hr312.thumb.png.6b480dbef82d29a83c739e8d2a9d49b6.png

 

 

When talking about the EPS does that always refer to the control model  Or all of its members 

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18 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

When talking about the EPS does that always refer to the control model  Or all of its members 

This case is the control.  The ensemble mean is vague as lows are everywhere that far out.  I'll try to remember to specify, but if my text is unclear, the image is labeled. 

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Before and after the system just to give an idea of where the system portrays the R/s line and temps

E4717C5D-5CEC-4C2E-AD6D-295CBE64E538.png

1BFA36D1-6B11-432E-933D-7AF7243F09EB.png

Edited by PA road DAWG

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As @Poconosnow pointed out this morning. The FIM shows a mammoth storm (<968 mb) in this time frame too.  Appears to mostly benefit interior locations.

Spoiler

406155523_11-2000zFIMh336mslp.thumb.png.3a7d154dad1681abc85eff27cac5b212.png

2019065635_11-2000zFIMh3362m.thumb.png.6e7abfa21c245691cf1425e3f2bd1355.png

1485577853_11-2000zFIMh3122m.thumb.png.f38db10248db4bfbbf4d227f49799e56.png

1650361154_11-2000zFIMh336qpf.thumb.png.39f00c316128f6bde986c610102bfe69.png

 

 

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie

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7 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

As @Poconosnow pointed out this morning. The FIM shows a mammoth storm (<968 mb) in this time frame too.  Appears to mostly benefit interior locations.

  Hide contents

406155523_11-2000zFIMh336mslp.thumb.png.3a7d154dad1681abc85eff27cac5b212.png

2019065635_11-2000zFIMh3362m.thumb.png.6e7abfa21c245691cf1425e3f2bd1355.png

1485577853_11-2000zFIMh3122m.thumb.png.f38db10248db4bfbbf4d227f49799e56.png

1650361154_11-2000zFIMh336qpf.thumb.png.39f00c316128f6bde986c610102bfe69.png

 

 

I can only think of one other time a sub 968 mb low traveled on the eastern edge of PA.    Someone care to venture a guess ?!? 

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20 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

I can only think of one other time a sub 968 mb low traveled on the eastern edge of PA.    Someone care to venture a guess ?!? 

93? was it?

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2 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

93? was it?

The one and only....SOTC

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On 11/19/2018 at 9:59 AM, jdrenken said:

In the past, our members and moderators would keep tabs on the various systems and adjust the thread dates as necessary. Yes, trying to get a "bead" on a specific storm between 7-14 days is rough, but it can be done. Also, a good bit of responsibility lies on the thread's creator to adjust.

Please note that any rebroadcast, retransmission or any other use of a General Long Range thread without the express written consent of Snobal, DT Enterprises and the YES Network (since the Yankees think they own EVERYTHING) is prohibited.  :police-smiley-emoticon:

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