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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

TheDayAfterTommorow

December 2-4, 2018 | Winter Storm Potential

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Slowly stirring something up this run....are we going roll down and pump this western ridge up?

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Each model run is such a coin flip in this split flow pattern, hard to take anything seriously.

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Just now, PA Snow 84 said:

Each model run is such a coin flip in this split flow pattern, hard to take anything seriously.

I agree however potential was always there with this one and at hour 240 I would atleast start paying a attention to see if all models have some type of storm in this time frame, which they do.

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image.png.a3ffb6cd0660534aad1549aaec4b9302.png

A step in the right direction, GFS not handling the heights well, this has a good "cold" miller B look to it.

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For sure, not saying the potential isn't there. The pattern is active, BSR gives lots of support and so on. Just saying these models are going to flip flop and have a bad handle on the events even more than "normal" into the medium range. It is going to take longer before a higher confidence solution will emerge.

6 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

I agree however potential was always there with this one and at hour 240 I would atleast start paying a attention to see if all models have some type of storm in this time frame, which they do.

 

 

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1 minute ago, PA Snow 84 said:

For sure, not saying the potential isn't there. The pattern is active, BSR gives lots of support and so on. Just saying these models are going to flip flop and have a bad handle on the events even more than "normal" into the medium range. It is going to take longer before a higher confidence solution will emerge.

 

I don't know about many but I would think that consistency would kill all the thrill 😂

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Not too shabby looking for long range!!

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Fv3 gfs looking to poop off something sexy from the GOM

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12z fv3 run with 850 temps

1906990691_11-2012zfv3850mslprunfor12-1.gif.76570a4030bfc5c177107a2e457127c2.gif

 

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00 EURO EPS

 

EuroStorm.jpg

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0Z EURO EPS snowfall through December 5th.   The bulk of it coming during the time for this thread.   Edit: This is only member P35.

 

Eurot5th.jpg

Edited by paletitsnow63
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EURO won the battle last major NE event, lets see if it becomes a trend and King Euro becomes a common name for this winter.

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37 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Fv3 gfs looking to poop off something sexy from the GOM

I'm not sure this sentence has ever been uttered or written before.  Wonder what it will look like?

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Just now, Ahoff said:

I'm not sure this sentence has ever been uttered or written before.  Wonder what it will look like?

Whatever you do, do not Google that. 

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1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

I'm not sure this sentence has ever been uttered or written before.  Wonder what it will look like?

Hahaah nice catch.  I meant to say pop off 

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26 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

00 EURO EPS

 

EuroStorm.jpg

Has the control outperformed the op euro

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4 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Has the control outperformed the op euro

Is there an operational Euro product that goes beyond hr 240?

 

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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

Fv3 gfs looking to poop off something sexy from the GOM

I don't consider poop sexy. :negative: :classic_laugh:

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12z EPS control for 12-1 and12-4.  The 12-1 pops off the NC coast and then deepens rapidly. 

1273689445_11-2012zeps12-1.thumb.png.1812e43d8c14b3d559f2528c233a584e.png

The 12-4 storm is a secondary forming from a GLC

ecmwfa1ec---conus-318-C-mslpthkpcp_white.thumb.png.f261aa9a5c020f358bc74dfea820ce4e.png

1582761477_11-2012zeps12-4.thumb.png.b303cc1eeddece1f2465da50fd0a0f2b.png

 

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4 hours ago, PA Snow 84 said:

EURO won the battle last major NE event, lets see if it becomes a trend and King Euro becomes a common name for this winter.

Had lots of misses last winter also but never get mentioned ... no model is "king".   I wouldn't buy any solution over 3 days out, yet alone near 2 weeks for this

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Gfs is starting pickup on the storm 2 runs in a row now. Still doesnt know what to do with the energy, shows some miller b action and then redevelops over the gulf coast and goes inside the benchmark. My guess is that this will be a popular thread by the beginning of next week.

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