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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Solstice

November 11-26, 2018 | Cold Blasts | Polar Air

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Well folks, it should be no surprise that we have been in an abnormally cold pattern. Yet, it continues, with a peak around Thanksgiving.

 

GFS long loop, including past temperatures. As you can see, the temperatures are unusually cold. And then the polar air arrives around the 21st.

Spoiler

gfs_T2ma_neus_fh-72-174.thumb.gif.d68df47bc52bd6f874dde960a98fcd5a.gif

 

GFS loop of 2 meter air temperatures. Verbatim, parts of PA, CT, NY remain below freezing for about 2 days, while the northern tier will struggle to reach the 20s. WOW.

Spoiler

gfs_T2m_neus_fh72-174.thumb.gif.8c1ba15182a7517f5f4ad3662452629d.gif

 

The ICON has been pretty good at forecasting temperatures. Just one look at the 2 meter temperatures is enough to make me go :classic_ohmy:.

Spoiler

icon_T2m_neus_48.thumb.png.720f406d30874db83f33ddc280d04cf4.png

 

I'll include the GEM as well, as it also shows the polar air of similar magnitude.

Spoiler

gem_T2m_neus_fh72-174.thumb.gif.6f2b8173eb21e213e2795d79d55999f0.gif

 

Here's an ICON long loop, just to show where the air comes from.

Spoiler

icon_T2m_nhem_fh0-174.thumb.gif.c322d105266d1f2afb370175715aef8a.gif

 

Arctic Oscillation Index. All sticking very low.

Spoiler

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.f2e476c0417907ebd8d70be936881000.gif

 

 

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11 hours ago, Solstice said:

Well folks, it should be no surprise that we have been in an abnormally cold pattern. Yet, it continues, with a peak around Thanksgiving.

 

GFS long loop, including past temperatures. As you can see, the temperatures are unusually cold. And then the polar air arrives around the 21st.

  Reveal hidden contents

gfs_T2ma_neus_fh-72-174.thumb.gif.d68df47bc52bd6f874dde960a98fcd5a.gif

 

GFS loop of 2 meter air temperatures. Verbatim, parts of PA, CT, NY remain below freezing for about 2 days, while the northern tier will struggle to reach the 20s. WOW.

  Reveal hidden contents

gfs_T2m_neus_fh72-174.thumb.gif.8c1ba15182a7517f5f4ad3662452629d.gif

 

The ICON has been pretty good at forecasting temperatures. Just one look at the 2 meter temperatures is enough to make me go :classic_ohmy:.

  Hide contents

icon_T2m_neus_48.thumb.png.720f406d30874db83f33ddc280d04cf4.png

 

I'll include the GEM as well, as it also shows the polar air of similar magnitude.

  Reveal hidden contents

gem_T2m_neus_fh72-174.thumb.gif.6f2b8173eb21e213e2795d79d55999f0.gif

 

Here's an ICON long loop, just to show where the air comes from.

  Reveal hidden contents

icon_T2m_nhem_fh0-174.thumb.gif.c322d105266d1f2afb370175715aef8a.gif

 

Arctic Oscillation Index. All sticking very low.

  Hide contents

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.f2e476c0417907ebd8d70be936881000.gif

 

 

 

Over the next 10 days I have snow in the forecast for 5 days. There's a good 3-4 day stretch I don't get above 36 and the trend is for those to drop. Wind chills near zero will be seen in the Northeast major metros more than one night in the next 10 days. If someone can post data showing more persistent cold in November, I'd love to see it. You're definitely not there in '93-'94, '95-'96, or '02-'03 and those are extreme outlier winters. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards

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Looking/reading past 10 days: It gets colder. The NAO blocking is still in place and the High pressure is centered over Eastern US where you would expect to see it during a Jan/Feb arctic outbreak. Dec 7-20th could feature days that it never gets out of the 20's in the NYC area. Considering 6.5" of snow while @ 27 degrees was seen on Nov 15th in Manhattan, who knows how low it really goes. You're looking at sub zero wind chills for tons of people. 

Edited by 90sBlizzards
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I just checked the forecast for Thanksgiving day and the temps will feel like that it’s January. :classic_blink:

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...Weather Highlights/Threats... Thanksgiving summary (Thu 11/22) -

Record cold in the Northeast with high temperatures 15 to near 30 deg F below average and many areas staying well below freezing. Wet along the west coast into the Great Basin and Rockies with near average temperatures and higher elevation snow. Milder and dry for the High Plains with 40s/50s common. Rain chance for the Gulf Coast from Texas eastward through much of Florida to the north of a front in the Florida Straits. The entire west coast and much of the interior will see widespread rain/elevation snow to start the period Wednesday. Precipitation focus still appears to be around northern California and the northern Sierras into southwestern Oregon as the upper trough splits N-S. Multi-day rainfall amounts may be in the 3-6 inch range over favored areas and even about an inch to an inch and a half in the Central Valley. Snow levels will fall through the period with several feet of snow likely at the highest elevations. Much below average temperatures in the Northeast will be slow to ease but will trend back toward typical late November values by next weekend. Temperatures in the west will be near to above average for overnight lows but near to below average for afternoon highs thanks to an abundance of cloud cover. The Plains and Upper Midwest will see milder temperatures Thursday-Saturday, generally above freezing for afternoon highs. Colder air will probably work back south across the border by next Sunday.

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Maue mentioned to me that the ECMWF was hinting at this the other day. ECMWF was showing 20F for Baltimore at 7am Friday. 

Checked my forecast for Thursday and Sterling is now hinting at cold temps. 

Wednesday Night - Partly cloudy, with a low around 26.
Thanksgiving Day - Sunny, with a high near 34.
Thursday Night - Mostly clear, with a low around 22.

And from the AFD

Quote

Another cold front will cross the region Wednesday night. This
one is coming almost due south as a deep but fast moving trough
pushes southeast across the northeastern US. While little if any
precip is expected with the front, the air behind this front
promises to be nearly, if not the, coldest we`ve seen so far
this season. Some guidance is depicting highs on Thanksgiving
Day potentially staying in the 30s, with widespread lows in the
teens to low 20s by Friday morning. This would likely be the
coldest Thanksgiving in quite a few years if this were to come
to fruition, though not all guidance is as cold, with some
models pushing the cold air more easterly versus southerly.

 

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Here in Morgantown, every day since November 7th was below average. Today could break the below average streak though, it's currently 55F (feels great!) and my low this morning was 32. The average for today is 44F so I need to get to 56 to break even. 

11/10 through 11/17 was particularly cold with an average temperature 11.5F below normal here!

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Cold this week but look like a warm up next week by warm up I mean 40s which is avg 

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EPS suggested this thread should probably end on the 24th.

EDN100-144.thumb.gif.7379020292eac9e7e8f0988794230a90.gif

EDN100-168.thumb.gif.6f40bafaa033f2630c0e9716affdafaf.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=100&map=9&type=1&archive=0

GYX, the obligatory caveat being, watch out for what follows a warm-up.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The deterministic model solutions are in good agreement on the
long wave pattern into the upcoming weekend. We begin the period
with a western ridge and eastern trough across the CONUS.
Fortunately the pattern is progressive...with the upper trough
lifting out by the end of the work week with rising heights and
ridging to follow post-holiday and into the upcoming weekend.
The upper trough will keep us locked into below normal
temperatures through the holiday before ridging and rising
heights allows the mercury to recover to near normal values by
next weekend. In the dailies...a potent shortwave and associated
surface low over the Gulf of Maine Tuesday evening are exiting
into the maritimes with gusty winds and upslope clouds and snow
showers in its wake. The next shortwave dives southeast across
the Great Lakes on Wednesday with an associated surface low and
trailing arctic cold front. This system will generate a few snow
showers and mountain snow squalls with its passage late
Wednesday and Wednesday night. It`ll be blustery and much colder
behind this system on Thursday with air temperatures running
twenty degrees below average. Wind chills will be subzero across
the mountains and in the single numbers elsewhere. Winds drop
off Thursday night under the building high as the gradient
relaxes. Lows should be sub zero across the mountains and only
in the single numbers above zero across the remainder of the
region. High pressure and somewhat warmer air returns for Friday
with the fair weather and a warming trend continuing through
the first half of the weekend. By late Sunday...model solutions
diverge considerably but still hint that the next disturbance
will be on our doorstep.

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26 records on the table to be potentially broken. 😬

 

ndfd_record_low_conus_4.thumb.png.fdb205846dd382d83e5e055bc46cbdd4.png

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12z ICON loop. Brr.

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icon_T2m_neus_fh60-126.thumb.gif.f33dc69f5cfbb0dd6d81549c1fba8acb.gif

 

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23 hours ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Here in Morgantown, every day since November 7th was below average. Today could break the below average streak though, it's currently 55F (feels great!) and my low this morning was 32. The average for today is 44F so I need to get to 56 to break even. 

11/10 through 11/17 was particularly cold with an average temperature 11.5F below normal here!

Even odder is that since October 12th, where I am, only four days have been above normal (October 19, 31, November 5-6). Roughly 90% of these days have been overcast as well.

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11 minutes ago, Weatherdude1993 said:

Even odder is that since October 12th, where I am, only four days have been above normal (October 19, 31, November 5-6). Roughly 90% of these days have been overcast as well.

Wow, yeah going back that far indicates only 7 days above normal here (Oct 15 and 31 and Nov 1, 2, 5, 6, and 18). Lots of overcast here too and that's undoubtedly a big factor in keeping temperatures so cool. 

The early October warmth was enough to make average monthly temperatures 1.6ºF above normal, but November (through the 18th) is 3.9ºF below normal. I have not appreciated the lack of spring and fall seasons this year, but the summer wasn't hot compared to what I'm used to. 

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32 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Wow, yeah going back that far indicates only 7 days above normal here (Oct 15 and 31 and Nov 1, 2, 5, 6, and 18). Lots of overcast here too and that's undoubtedly a big factor in keeping temperatures so cool. 

The early October warmth was enough to make average monthly temperatures 1.6ºF above normal, but November (through the 18th) is 3.9ºF below normal. I have not appreciated the lack of spring and fall seasons this year, but the summer wasn't hot compared to what I'm used to. 

Even early October wasn't that great here other than October 9-10 (Daytime highs struggled due to constant overcast skies in early October, even though the nights were pretty torchy). October 2018 was still a tad below normal here and certainly the coldest since 2009.

Yes, this year's spring it is as if we went from March to June. This year's fall it is as if we went from August to November.

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On 11/18/2018 at 1:20 AM, SnowDude said:

the temps will feel like that it’s January.

Given the extended Summers we now have and the traumatic humidity and endless bad hair we all suffered through this year, I'm okay with January feels!

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High temps in the upper 20's forecasted for Thanksgiving here, thats an unbelievable Polar shot this time of year.

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Forecast low down to 8 and 2 for wed/thur night,  respectively..

Kbuf

Quote

Otherwise, the big weather story will simply be the cold temperatures.
Temperatures will plummet into the teens and single digits
Wednesday night, with gusty winds resulting in near to below
zero wind chills. Then highs on Thanksgiving day will only be in
the teens to lower 20s which will be close to the coldest
Thanksgiving maximum temperature on record. Arctic high pressure
over the area will result in a another very cold night. Those
with shopping plans for early Friday morning should be prepared
for temperatures in the teens and single digits, with some
below zero readings across the North Country.

NWS

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR
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18z NAM brings in some bitter cold for Thanksgiving morning. And a lot of Turkey Bowl games.

 

2 meter air temperature.

Spoiler

sfct.us_ne.thumb.png.4fcffc6bbed22462229dd9b6a3892fb4.png

 

2 meter wind chill. Ho-lee-chit.

Spoiler

sfctapp.us_ne.thumb.png.3007ce2a97063a3c998224ca4a3d23e4.png

 

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Records for 11/22

Portland, Maine (records begin 1871)

Screenshot_20181119-165027.jpg.b418b5273cee18e33aea739254f8f534.jpg

And Concord, NH (records begin 1868)

Screenshot_20181119-164924.jpg.da0b0dbdfe46a53a5cefc2eb42aa594f.jpg

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18 minutes ago, Solstice said:

18z NAM brings in some bitter cold for Thanksgiving morning. And a lot of Turkey Bowl games.

 

2 meter air temperature.

  Hide contents

sfct.us_ne.thumb.png.4fcffc6bbed22462229dd9b6a3892fb4.png

 

2 meter wind chill. Ho-lee-chit.

  Hide contents

sfctapp.us_ne.thumb.png.3007ce2a97063a3c998224ca4a3d23e4.png

 

As much as I love winter, I'm not upset about missing this cold wave. Instead I expect to be basking in mid 50s, which will probably feel like shorts and short sleeves weather

Spoiler

159684734_11-1912zNAMTgiveswindchil.thumb.png.cd64cb41fbfa41b453321004560e6f62.png

 

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9 hours ago, PlanetMaster said:

High temps in the upper 20's forecasted for Thanksgiving here, thats an unbelievable Polar shot this time of year.

I was just looking at that. Wth? First Thanksgiving off from work in six years and it's mid 20s. :classic_angry:

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