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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Solstice

November 11-26, 2018 | Cold Blasts | Polar Air

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It will be nice to be able to walk across my lawn without damaging it, if even for a single day.  Right now it is so sodden, it is like walking on pudding.

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I'm very hopeful the snow melts off my wood pile today as I've got work to do. Turkey day will be very cold. Stupid cold. And Wednesday night will be "squally" (never well represented by models) for Ridge and Valley west which should be fun to watch as the front of your nose freezes. 

Edited by MDBlueRidge
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Albany's forecast for my town...:classic_blink:

Screen Shot 2018-11-20 at 11.11.00 AM.png

Edited by telejunkie
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Here could see low 20s for a high on Thursday. That is especially remarkable considering it may be under sunshine and little snow cover. I know the sun angle is low at this time of year, but still.

Edited by Weatherdude1993

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2 hours ago, RobBucksPA said:

It will be nice to be able to walk across my lawn without damaging it, if even for a single day.  Right now it is so sodden, it is like walking on pudding.

I have never seen the ground so saturated where I am during a fall season.

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What the Heck!? 
 
https://www.weather.gov/bgm/productText
 


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
104 PM EST Tue Nov 20 2018
 
An arctic cold front will be crossing the region late Wednesday
afternoon and evening. 
 
Wednesday night and Thanksgiving...
 
All the guidance continues to advertise an extremely anomalous
bitterly cold airmass for this time of year...Wednesday night into
Thanksgiving.  In fact...both the GEFS/NAEFS show the extreme nature
of this bitter cold falling outside the CFSR climatology in terms of
850 mb temperatures. Basically that means that these models have
never forecasted an airmass that cold at 850 mb based on reanalysis.
 
850T are expected to fall to between -20C and -24C...which will
result in bitterly cold temperatures.   Low temperatures should
plunge into the single digits across portions of the interior with
lower to middle teens on the coastal plain. 
 
 
Highs on Thanksgiving will remain in the middle to upper teens across
portions of the interior high terrain to between 20 and 25 on the coastal plain.
This will be accompanied by northwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph
resulting in bitter cold wind chills of 0 to 10 below zero
Thanksgiving morning for much of the region!
 
While dry weather is expected for Thanksgiving for the vast majority
of the region...some ocean effect snow showers are likely for the
mid and outer-Cape into Thanksgiving night.  While there is some low
level dry air which will be a limiting factor...the 850 to SST
differential is extreme with a greater than 30C differential!
Certainly the potential for one half to two inches of snow in this
region...given the extreme nature of this airmass especially as
winds begin to turn more NNW.


 
 
How the airmass will look Thanksgiving morning. From the Arctic to the Northeast.

3Ro7NOC.jpg

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9 minutes ago, NorEaster27 said:

What the Heck!? 
 
https://www.weather.gov/bgm/productText
 

 


 
 
How the airmass will look Thanksgiving morning. From the Arctic to the Northeast.

3Ro7NOC.jpg

This is one time I'm ok with being on the fringe  

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Amazing to think that like 2 months ago we were talking about 596 m heights overhead in the east...now I might see sub 500 heights on Thanksgiving....that's quite a crash

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This will be the  coldest Tday in NYC since 1901

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Mount Washington Observatory/Summit Forecast:

ALERT: WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EST WEDS THROUGH 7 PM EST WEDS...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT 7PM EST WEDS THROUGH NOON EST FRIDAY...

Quote

With a low pressure system off the East coast strengthening and moving off to the Northeast, precipitation associated with the low will swing inland. As a result, snow will continue to fall across the White Mountain Region during the overnight hours and into Wednesday morning. Snow accumulations will remain fairly low, and will likely diminish into upslope snow showers as the morning progresses on Wednesday. Wind speeds will be on the rise as well, prompting a Wind Chill Advisory that will go into effect at 3 am tonight. Following the passage of the coastal low, a strong cold frontal boundary will swing through from the Great Lakes and potentially bring another round of frozen precipitation. Passing through the forecast area headed into Wednesday evening, temperatures will plummet well below freezing, with wind speeds increasing drastically in the front’s wake. Wednesday night will see winds gusting into the 100 mph range as temperatures fall to around 15 below, putting wind chills between 60-70 degrees below and drastically increasing risk for hypothermia or frost bite. This frigid pattern will likely persist into the day on Thursday, allowing for the possibility for several daily record low temperatures to be broken. With wind speeds forecasted to increase further as temperatures drop several more degrees, a wind chill warning will go into effect at 7 pm Wednesday evening that will last through the remainder of the forecast period.
Ian Bailey -- Weather Observer/Education Specialist
Updated at 5:04 PM on Tuesday

 

:ColdBreath:

Spoiler

916730960_Screenshot2018-11-20at9_00_13PM.thumb.png.f034181966945b722fca7a86c80df52c.png

 

NAM and RDPS continue to show blisteringly cold windchills for Thursday morning.

Spoiler

1314553046_sfctapp.us_ne(2).thumb.png.06949f1efd8871f8c2a9bb7202863a14.png30227606_sfctapp.us_ne(1).thumb.png.3eeabd651722587dc44e523c7f0586ff.png

 

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1 minute ago, Solstice said:

Mount Washington Observatory/Summit Forecast:

ALERT: WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EST WEDS THROUGH 7 PM EST WEDS...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT 7PM EST WEDS THROUGH NOON EST FRIDAY...

 

:ColdBreath:

  Hide contents

916730960_Screenshot2018-11-20at9_00_13PM.thumb.png.f034181966945b722fca7a86c80df52c.png

 

NAM and RDPS continue to show blisteringly cold windchills for Thursday morning.

  Hide contents

1314553046_sfctapp.us_ne(2).thumb.png.06949f1efd8871f8c2a9bb7202863a14.png30227606_sfctapp.us_ne(1).thumb.png.3eeabd651722587dc44e523c7f0586ff.png

 

Kind of wonder what that feels like but I don't want to find out. Does that make sense?

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Front should be through within the next few hours..

Squall line getting ready to move through, 4.5” overnight..

585577D0-34D5-4CB7-804F-C56AB2B81A67.gif

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR
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Snow Squall Warning

Quote
 

* Until 1015 AM EST.

* At 916 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line
extending from near Southwick Beach State Park to near Hamlin Beach
State Park, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind
gusts greater than 35 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.

* This includes Interstate 81 between exits 33 and 40. This also
includes State Route 104, and portions of the Rochester
metropolitan area.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, Chili, Oswego, Fulton, Brockport,
East Rochester, Hilton and Webster.

 

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Wondering if this holds together or dries up.

20uP1ng.png

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1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

Wondering if this holds together or dries up.

20uP1ng.png

I'm pretty sure the squall associated with the cold front will hold together, but should gradually weaken as it moves farther from the lakes. High-res models suggest the pre-frontal snows will struggle to leave the state of NY.

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47 minutes ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

Front should be through within the next few hours..

Squall line getting ready to move through, 4.5” overnight..

585577D0-34D5-4CB7-804F-C56AB2B81A67.gif

Congratulations! I suspect you will dethrone @MaineJay for WxDisco's prestigious snowiest backyard award for November 2018: :AnywhereWarm:

 

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Verbiage out of state college sounding like they're expecting a decent snow squall to come through. Short range models hinting at this as well. 

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If only we would've known that it would be this cold for the NE on Thanksgiving.

18_1122-12-500.gif

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6 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Wondering if this holds together or dries up.

20uP1ng.png

close but nothing yet

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temps topped out here 44 today starting to drop 41 now light winds  gusts 11 mph avg 6 mph partly cloudy

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Squall line out in front, looks to make it down to the coast with rain showers going quickly over to flurries.

radarsqualls.gif

 

Quote

Snow Squall Warning


SNOW SQUALL WARNING
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
457 PM EST WED NOV 21 2018

NJC037-PAC025-089-212211-
/O.CON.KPHI.SQ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-181121T2230Z/
457 PM EST WED NOV 21 2018
Sussex County NJ-Carbon County PA-Monroe County PA-

...A SNOW SQUALL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EST FOR
NORTHERN SUSSEX...CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES...

At 457 PM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line
extending from near Unionville to Dingmans Ferry to near Alpine
Mountain to near Long Pond to near Stoddartsville to near Berwick,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Extremely poor visibility heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind
gusts up to 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.

This will impact portions of Interstate 80, 380 and 476, with the
greatest impacts expected in areas where temperatures drop to near
or below freezing.

Locations impacted include...
Port Jervis, Mount Pocono, East Stroudsburg, Tobyhanna, Jim Thorpe,
Weatherly, Sussex, Branchville, Unionville, Stormville, High Point,
Werry Lake, Pocono Pines, Lake Harmony, Vernon Valley, Skytop,
Tannersville, Long Pond, Kresgeville and Sun Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Consider avoiding or delaying travel until the snow squall passes
your location. If you must travel, use extra caution and allow extra
time. Rapid changes in visibility and slick road conditions may lead
to accidents.

Reduce your speed and turn on headlights! During snow squalls, the
visibility may suddenly drop to near zero in whiteout conditions.

 

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Current 850mb temps. (5000')

 -20C line has crossed the U.S border now in NY. Should get down to Hartford and over Eastern MA

-10C line should get as far south as Baltimore. Thats pretty much the Arctic front.
 
Hope hikers are prepared. What an airmass to look at and experience in November. I never have. We never have.
 
0HdELy3.jpg
 
 
Zoomed out
 
na2aTO5.jpg
 
 
plenty of sites to see the current 850mb temps. 
 
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=850mb
 
 
https://aviationweather.gov/windtemp/plot

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Looking at a high of 10F tomorrow.

Edited by mainiac
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