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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 26-28, 2018 | Double Barrel Low | New England Snow Storm

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Hello, everyone!

Right in the heels of the possible wintry Nov 24-25 storm, the region should be affected by a double barrel fall storm. This system should have tis first low pressure system track through the Tennessee valley to Ohio, and by then, a second low pressure system should develop near the Maryland coast. From there, we would eventually have a double barrel storm, as both lows track to the NE, one over the Great Lakes and the other towards Long Island or southern New England.

Given the double barrel nature of the strom, this one should be a warmer storm, meaning there should be more rain than wintry precipitation for most of the region. However, even with this setup, frozen precipitation should not be ruled out in areas of the interior an dhigher elevations.

 

Please see below, the latest 12Z EPS Control MSLP, Nov 18, 2018, as support to allow for the start of the discussion.

 

eps_mslp_cont_conus_192.thumb.png.239fee708434a04c816b7db56dfd05eb.pngeps_mslp_cont_conus_204.thumb.png.713f4b17bd4f4447a64db80f34579b96.pngeps_mslp_cont_conus_216.thumb.png.0437d6f7012c402639fe0f3b43431a87.pngeps_mslp_cont_conus_228.thumb.png.f893408b58dacfa1c024c0114285d4eb.pngeps_mslp_cont_conus_240.thumb.png.155d3cb6fdaf8102ae7fdeef4e484dcb.png

 

Have fun posting your thougths and eventual observations. As for the lurkers, enjoy the reading.

 

 

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@Phased Vort

You merged my thread and moved yours up two days only to make a new thread for 27-28 anyway.  I put a lot of work into separating the discussion today only for you to jumble it all back up. 

You’ve definitely soured my future participation in creating threads or participating in the active weather forum.  Quite a knee jerk reaction you displayed today. 

 

 

Edited by Poconosnow

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Ok Going out on a limb here big snow for ct there see I did it I said snow not rain 🤣

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U should merge this thread w the other one 

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This one looks somewhat interesting.  The low on the west coast looks to be getting model to exit along the east coast in a decent area.  With all the cold that's going around, gotta start keeping an eye on this one ;)  Even after this date towards December looks decent for long range.  Fun fun fun!  Hello to all the fellow winter watches from accu forums!  That time of year again!!  Buckle up, I have a feeling this one is gonna be a doosey!!

Edited by avsguy

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JMA

jma_z500_mslp_us_8.png

jma_z500_mslp_us_9.png

Spoiler

 

 

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1 hour ago, NorEaster27 said:

Anyone have some Euro maps or outputs?

Here ya go, looks like fun to me :)

Spoiler

 

660090952_11-2012zEuroh168.thumb.gif.44fac6998416f9ae34e49b2ab804a970.gif

44337398_11-2012zEuroh192.thumb.gif.d75abe0bccb0291224015c625a95a918.gif

 

 

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21 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Here ya go, looks like fun to me :)

  Hide contents

 

660090952_11-2012zEuroh168.thumb.gif.44fac6998416f9ae34e49b2ab804a970.gif

44337398_11-2012zEuroh192.thumb.gif.d75abe0bccb0291224015c625a95a918.gif

 

 

Unicorn certainly looks to be play...

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32 minutes ago, NorEaster27 said:

 

I do enjoy his round-about way of patting himself on the back. 

Claiming that an ensemble control run is the best weather model is amusing since the ECMWF folks (literally the models' creators) believe their operational model performs better :classic_laugh:

On another note, I find it very frustrating that he can't accurately describe the model guidance he's posting. He's posting deterministic guidance (i.e. a single solution), which (by definition) is not an ensemble! :hmm:

P.S. the storm he's referencing is for a separate thread (Dec 1-3)

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie

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We need this rain in the North East like a hole in the head. I have a sump pump in my basement I have never seen it run this long in November.  Normally only comes on from march to april.  It has been running now for 3 plus weeks.  I would much rather have an epic snow storm.  Lets save some water for the spring.  Very strange patter the last month.

image.png.f4b29a04ad21b444ed813c775baf90e4.png

 

 

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I think this goes here.

GYX

Yet another coastal system will develop in our active pattern
early next week as suggested by some model consensus within the
00Z run. A strong upper level trough will cross over southern
New England, triggering cyclogenesis along the coastline on
Monday. The structure and evolution of this system has changed
somewhat from day to day and run to run. However, a slow moving
and strong and deepening area of low pressure had the potential
to bring significant precipitation to the region. Mixed
precipitation is likely once again, however this far out in time
will allow for changes in the potential details.

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3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

I think this goes here.

GYX

 

 

00z GEFS confirms the coastal transfer Monday afternoon/evening and with the magnitude of snowpack north of the modeled coastal low, it seems like another snowstorm is a real possibility, especially with your remarks about transfers into the Gulf of Maine often being stronger than modeled. 

509601364_11-2100zGEFSMSLPh138.png.45ae2ae5a8607b936f1143bb3491c9fe.png

1093542021_11-2100zGEFSMSLPh144.png.cca9030e211f0a338bd0bcd48730848e.png

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12Z GFS seems to like the idea of the double barrel low structure. The low over the lakes weakens and allows the coastal to become dominant. From that time on, snows break out for interior Northeast, especially NY, VT, and NH with a pretty potent inverted trof mechanism.

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Crazy inverted trough.

1724674380_11-2112zgfsinvtroughrun.thumb.gif.30a4191f276c079384126be933e5e92a.gif

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3 minutes ago, brodoser1 said:

:thregen:

I swear...we still have leaves to pick up. Need a few days over freezing to dry out.

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I did my leaves last Sunday and it was hell. About 30% of the yard still had snow cover and everything was soaking wet/matted down. My backpack leaf blower didn't stand a chance. I developed a kick/blow method which seemed to make the most progress :classic_laugh:

33 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I swear...we still have leaves to pick up. Need a few days over freezing to dry out.

 

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Retro Season? 

I noticed many 0z ECM ENS painting a similar picture..

Blocking is just as good for us as it is to the south..

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh138-198.gif

fv3p_asnow_neus_33.png

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1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

I swear...we still have leaves to pick up. Need a few days over freezing to dry out.

that's not going to happen one of those years you do it in the spring

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Gfs is similar to the FV3 , big potential in this time frame, albeit not in the traditional sense..

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh132-174.gif

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I really like the storm pattern we are in besides flooding the aloft portion with warmth multiple times with LP forming right around mid atlantic bodes well for the snow down the road. But holy pattern batman this looks like fun.

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