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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 26-28, 2018 | Double Barrel Low | New England Snow Storm

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I've been lurking for this storm and checking the TT usually, and it seems that the NAVGEM has stuck to a much more impactful solution than all the others. Yes, yes, it has a progressive bias, but the level of consistency it has put down is, frankly, scary. Here's the 6z NAVGEM.

navgem_mslp_pcpn_neus_fh78-120.thumb.gif.d36815acec386b59702c4ca022c9993a.gif

 

Now, isn't that mouth watering?

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12 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Is it too far north for SW PA?

You will get precipitation.

Likely mostly rain, but there could be a little bit of snow in the end of the storm, or the so-called and notorious "back end" when the storm passes and winds shift and come from the NE.

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Feels like we have wasted the cold so far.  Still early, but I fear the pattern will favor the coast and shaft my area, and when the big storms do hit, they'll bring rain.  Won't be surprised if it is a cold winter, but will the storms visit us?

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Models pretty much have gone full circle and now are back to showing some decent wrap around/enhancement off the lakes..

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21.png

gfs_midRH_neus_22.png

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4 hours ago, Solstice said:

I've been lurking for this storm and checking the TT usually, and it seems that the NAVGEM has stuck to a much more impactful solution than all the others. Yes, yes, it has a progressive bias, but the level of consistency it has put down is, frankly, scary. Here's the 6z NAVGEM.

 

  Hide contents

navgem_mslp_pcpn_neus_fh78-120.thumb.gif.d36815acec386b59702c4ca022c9993a.gif

 

 

Now, isn't that mouth watering?

 

While I'm rooting for it. Highly likely it doesn't occur in the way the NAVGEM is showing... Consistency doesn't always equal accuracy... But here's to hoping lol

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Kbgm

Quote

 One point of
uncertainty, is that ECMWF has slowed down the exit of the
system Monday, with upper low opening and getting pulled back
somewhat towards a larger upper low descending into the western
Great Lakes. This could mean a period of rain changing to wet
snow across the northern zones Monday night, before the
already-expected transition to a lake effect snow regime
Tuesday through Thursday.
Monday
Rain before 5pm, then rain and snow. High near 42. Southeast wind 11 to 14 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Monday Night
Snow showers. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
 

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Nice write up from GYX

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***Significant snowfall possible for interior Tuesday***

The major story of the extended is the next storm system set to
arrive in the area Mon night. Currently developing over the
Intermountain West...this system will bring a swath of snow to
the Midwest with the primary low pressure center. Secondary
development is forecast to take place off the Srn New England
coast Mon...which will help transition the precip from purely
WAA driven...to more cold conveyor processes as mid level lows
try and develop. Currently model guidance disagrees on the
degree to which this occurs. The 24.12z GFS and GDPS agree that
new mid level low centers are forecast to develop thru H7 in
conjunction with the secondary surface low. The 24.12z ECMWF
however keeps the primary mid levels lows stronger and dumbbells
them thru the Northeast Tue. This evolution will play a large
role in the strength and duration of precip across the forecast
area...with the ECMWF much more likely to dry slot.

Ensemble tools were also a little difficult to get a read
on...with several scenarios leading to favorable surface
pressure patterns off the New England coast. They do indicate
that 00z runs tonight should be important for establishing
whether the developing S/WV trof is well analyzed as it moves
into the central CONUS. 24.12z ECMWF EPS also has very high
probabilities for 3 inches or more of snow for the interior
parts of the forecast area. Interestingly enough...it also has
very high probabilities for 6 inches or more in the same
areas...suggestive that the rain/snow boundary may be very
sharp.

Given the uncertainty...the forecast method was to use the
multi-model consensus for snow ratios and max wet-bulb temps
aloft. This gave me rain across the Srn half of the forecast
area changing to snow for the interior zones Mon night or early
Tue. For the far interior and W central ME the ptype was
predominantly snow. A blend of the probability matched mean QPF
with WPC and snow ratio grids spit out a pretty large area of 6
or more inches for interior zones...especially for Wrn ME. I did
also get the sharp Srn border to that snowfall...which will make
headlines somewhat more complicated on that end. But it does
look like trends are headed towards winter headlines for at
least part of the forecast area.

 

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1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

Nice write up from GYX

 

 

18Z ECMWF:

Someone could get buried in NH and Maine.

1429610066_9-kmECMWFUSASurface3-HourlyNortheastUSSnowfall90.thumb.png.5462f103a67222b2bef154f99526f20e.png

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6 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

18Z ECMWF:

Someone could get buried in NH and Maine.

1429610066_9-kmECMWFUSASurface3-HourlyNortheastUSSnowfall90.thumb.png.5462f103a67222b2bef154f99526f20e.png

I'm right on the line, it'll come down to how far the coastal front pushes onshore.  I fear a repeat of a storm just before new years, Dec 2016. Rain turning to snow plastered the trees in a stripe along I95, took down a fair amount of trees, lots of power outages just to my SE.

NERFC snowfall forecast

865414997_NE_Snow(3).png.54d78d82b8d0a80b0b6d97e7f66d0783.png

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ECMWF continues to put down an impressive amount of snow.  2" of liquid equivalent for my backyard.

Screenshot_20181125-044626.thumb.jpg.94b4d8d1e859a630bfb374927123331b.jpg

Screenshot_20181125-044653.thumb.jpg.e9359e42fc695e986b02587a03ee520e.jpg

GYX, love how the forecaster uses their gut. :classic_smile:

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
What will become our Monday/Tuesday storm is just starting to
take shape in the central plains with low pressure currently on
the OK/KS border. While there is good agreement currently on the
low placement between observations and models the spread
quickly increases as the low tracks towards Chicago over the
next 24 hours. For our region we`re looking at secondary
cyclogenesis off the coast as the parent low tracks through
southern Ontario on Monday with the placement of this secondary
low being key to our precipitation type for Monday night into
Tuesday. Ensemble sensitivity suggest we won`t have a good
handle on this for another 24 hours until the parent low reaches
the Chicago region. If the low tracks onshore it will allow
warm air to penetrate at all levels pushing most of the southern
portion of the area over to rain or a rain/snow mix. If the low
is able to track offshore however the increased cold air on the
north side, combined with the ability for a coastal front to
set up will likely bring the rain snow line down quite close to
the coast. This offshore/colder solution is favored by several
deterministic models, as well as my gut and thus have I have
trended temperatures a bit colder and the rain/snow line further
south with this package.

As far as amounts, this looks to be quite a moist system and expect
the northern portion of the are to reach Warning criteria
snowfall. The placement of the rain snow/line will determine
the snowfall winner through the foothills and south but good
lift in the snow growth zone as well as some frontogenesis means
there is a potential for a band of very heavy snow just inland
of the rain/snow line. Some of the models show very high QPF
with this system, however this seems a bit overdone and have
gone conservative with the amount of liquid. Even with this
caveat the potential for widespread significant snowfall
remains. With all the uncertainty in precipitation type and the
existing winter headlines will not issue any watches at this
time but watches will likely be needed by tomorrow for portions
of the area.

The storm will exit the area late Tuesday and as it does make
way for an upper level low to move over the region. This will
keep us in persistent northwesterly flow with relatively cool
temperatures. Expect upslope snow shower to continue through
much of the week in the mountains which will likely allow for
moderate accumulations along the Canadian border.

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To all in the Southern NE or northern MA, the reason why we are not going to get any snow storms any time soon is because I purchased a HLA 2500 6ft snow pusher for my tractor last week, we may have a chance of a small storm come the first week of December, that's because my tractor will be in the shop getting its 100hr PM done, that looks like our only shot for December. :352nmsp: Until then just get use to close calls and eye candy. 

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On 11/23/2018 at 8:43 AM, brodoser1 said:

now bring in the cold

Lol, don't ever change.

This has been an extremely cold end to fall, the the point that I consider winter underway.

Last 2 weeks have been record cold for many.

503703765_STATE_TAVG-RANK-2week_latest(1).thumb.png.f7cd96e6705cf4ffec263befb91e778d.png

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/sub-monthly-temperatures/

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2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

ECMWF continues to put down an impressive amount of snow.  2" of liquid equivalent for my backyard.

Screenshot_20181125-044626.thumb.jpg.94b4d8d1e859a630bfb374927123331b.jpg

Screenshot_20181125-044653.thumb.jpg.e9359e42fc695e986b02587a03ee520e.jpg

GYX, love how the forecaster uses their gut. :classic_smile:

 

 

 

00Z ECMWF indeed has a pretty big interior snowstorm.

Should be fun for the folks there.

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Just more rain for ct

my luck when the stormy pattern Changes it will be cold and dry 🤣

Edited by brodoser1
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ECMWF continues to be the most SE solution and thus, coldest.  Without seeing the 925mb and surface temps, it's hard to determine what I'd see, it's a razor thin call. I've mentioned so frequently, how the distal front sets up is so key, 

ecmwf_T850_neus_3.thumb.png.2303c3e08a9b200aef2c9dec65aa6035.png

Stout low level easterly jet generally signals heavy precip.

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_neus_3.thumb.png.9ce0a5badbd977d9f1dd094f7b73a743.png

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If I get an opportunity to move to Maine, I would move to Maine in a blink of an eye! 🤣

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8 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

ECMWF continues to be the most SE solution and thus, coldest.  Without seeing the 925mb and surface temps, it's hard to determine what I'd see, it's a razor thin call. I've mentioned so frequently, how the distal front sets up is so key, 

ecmwf_T850_neus_3.thumb.png.2303c3e08a9b200aef2c9dec65aa6035.png

Stout low level easterly jet generally signals heavy precip.

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_neus_3.thumb.png.9ce0a5badbd977d9f1dd094f7b73a743.png

Haven’t had time to compare but FV3 is also quite abundant in moisture and colder. Would be a big hit for local mountains...

in other news, thought i’d be seeing some grass by now in my yard. Snowpack holding stronger than I expected...

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Updated NERFC map

1411471920_NE_Snow(4).png.ccbbeb9c948283a6c8d8306feff298e6.png

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9 minutes ago, Southern Maine Snow said:

Does anyone have information on what the 12z Euro showed?

I don't have an actual snow map, but here's the liquid equivalent of what falls as snow. Tight gradient on the coastal plain, 25 miles either way will have huge impacts.

Screenshot_20181125-142830.thumb.jpg.2331e39929a8fe3de75dfb4aec374eac.jpg

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018112512/new-hampshire/snow-depth-in/20181128-1800z.html

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31 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I don't have an actual snow map, but here's the liquid equivalent of what falls as snow. Tight gradient on the coastal plain, 25 miles either way will have huge impacts.

Screenshot_20181125-142830.thumb.jpg.2331e39929a8fe3de75dfb4aec374eac.jpg

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018112512/new-hampshire/snow-depth-in/20181128-1800z.html

Thanks MJ. I am not in a good spot for this one. GFS and NAM say no snow for my area. A little snow from the Euro. Storm needs to move about 50 miles more east.

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36 minutes ago, Southern Maine Snow said:

Thanks MJ. I am not in a good spot for this one. GFS and NAM say no snow for my area. A little snow from the Euro. Storm needs to move about 50 miles more east.

I worry it'll be a paste bomb for some. If that coastal front hangs back on the coast, I think you have a shot a decent snow.  Thre storm is definitely tucked into the gulf of maine. 

18z 3km NAM is considerably colder 

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_43.thumb.png.636e1962cd125ae79b8f56ff4c622743.png

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13 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I worry it'll be a paste bomb for some. If that coastal front hangs back on the coast, I think you have a shot a decent snow.  Thre storm is definitely tucked into the gulf of maine. 

18z 3km NAM is considerably colder 

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_43.thumb.png.636e1962cd125ae79b8f56ff4c622743.png

WOW!!! that even brings some snow into my county(Dutchess, NY). I'll have to check out future models runs on this. Thanks, I have not been following this one closely since it looked like another rain event a day ago.

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