MaineJay 2,702 Posted November 25, 2018 GYX with a snowfall map. Low and high end in the spoiler 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheRex 306 Posted November 25, 2018 BTV NWS not biting yet on the NAM Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 545 Posted November 26, 2018 (edited) Kbuf Quote On Tuesday night into Wednesday, model guidance suggests a trough will pivot around the upper low from north to south. This will enhance moisture, and even though 850mb temperatures will warm slightly it still will be just cold enough to support snow. This event will have both a synoptic and lake effect component with some lake and orographic enhancement. Deeper moisture will support higher snowfall rates, but there may not be singular convergence band. Orographic lift will play a key role, with significantly more snow expected across higher terrain even though there should be some snow accumulation in all areas. There are still model differences in timing and wind direction which will have a significant impact on snowfall amounts. However, significant amounts are possible east of the lakes with this event Spoiler Edited November 26, 2018 by Mike W IN ALTMAR Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheRex 306 Posted November 26, 2018 8 hours ago, telejunkie said: Haven’t had time to compare but FV3 is also quite abundant in moisture and colder. Would be a big hit for local mountains... in other news, thought i’d be seeing some grass by now in my yard. Snowpack holding stronger than I expected... Snowpack has been holding up much better than expected here also. I hope we can keep it until the next snow storm. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheRex 306 Posted November 26, 2018 00Z NAM keeps consistent with 18Z NAM in this neck of the woods. We had been expecting a sloppy mess this week. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MaineJay 2,702 Posted November 26, 2018 GYX with another good disco LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ***Significant Snow Possible for the Interior*** Focus of the extended is on the storm system evolving over the Midwest today...set to arrive in the region later Mon. The rest of the forecast is a blend of the multi-model consensus. Complex storm system evolving...with a developing blizzard over the Midwest forecast to lift into the Great Lakes Mon. That primary low pressure center will remain strong...and allow warm air and dry slotting to move towards the forecast area late Mon. All model guidance forecasts some level of secondary low pressure to develop off the New England coast...but timing and location will be critical to duration and type of precip locally. All guidance deepens a new H7 low near the Srn border of the forecast area and moves it NE. All scenarios would lead to some level of dry slotting and mixed precip or drizzle...though the ECMWF is strongest and farthest SE. The differences are more apparent at H8...where the ECMWF develops that low center faster and farther S. In addition it tracks it along the coast...vs the GFS which brings the H8 low thru the heart of the forecast area. The GFS would be quite a bit less snowfall based on that evolution...but it also is an outlier as the NAM and GDPS have sided with the ECMWF placement of the mid level low. Trying to tease out where some of the difference may be arising using ensemble tools...the ECMWF EPS has so far had the tendency towards a strong secondary low pressure. However both it and the GEFS initialized a little too weak with ridging ahead of the S/WV trof across the Midwest. That type of forecast error had the tendency to produce a stronger primary low pressure...but a stronger/farther W primary low left plenty of room for a secondary to develop still. Given that the ensemble systems have sorted themselves into their centers...and the CMC is in agreement with the EPS...a straight blend of that available guidance more or less produces a 75/25 mix favoring the ECMWF temps aloft. Possibly more important will be surface temps. Forecast soundings show that temps aloft are going to be quite cold across the interior...but the near surface layer will remain above freezing for many areas at onset. With no strong warm nose aloft...the higher terrain is a near lock for significant accumulations of snowfall. S of the mtns however is a tough forecast. If we can get a strong secondary low to develop...parts of the foothills and interior coastal counties may flip to heavy snow for a few hours. That may be enough for 3 to 6 inches of wet snow. I left snow totals alone above 1500 ft...but did make sure that totals were lower below that where mixed precip and rain will cut into totals. The end result is a very sharp transition zone that goes from little to no snowfall...to 6 plus over just a few miles. I have issued winter storm watch for those areas most likely to see 6 inches or more at this time. By midday Tue precip should be winding down S of the mtns...though any deformation band or orographically induced snowfall will linger in the higher terrain. && Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
telejunkie 732 Posted November 26, 2018 (edited) 47 minutes ago, TheRex said: 00Z NAM keeps consistent with 18Z NAM in this neck of the woods. We had been expecting a sloppy mess this week. When NAM and Euro agree...tough to argue against. Interesting to me is that the FV3 version of GFS has been displaying this scenario for a while as well. Seemed like an outlier when comparing other globals so disregarded it...but something to keep note on if this colder scenario comes to fruition. Still going to be slopfest here in the valley, but I don't mind if local elevation gets blanketed in white and I get wet...less snow removal isn't a problem in my book. PS...Quebec City looks like just got NAM'ed... Edited November 26, 2018 by telejunkie Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wx_WhatWX? 568 Posted November 26, 2018 Sunday's 9:35 p.m. AFDALY. If your elevation is 1500' you look to be in the game for some accumulations. Quote -- Highlight Changed Discussion -- 000 FXUS61 KALY 260235 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 935 PM EST Sun Nov 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Another storm system will impact the region bringing widespread precipitation, rain and snow, Monday into Tuesday. Moderate to possibly heavy snowfall accumulations for elevations mainly above 1500 feet. The weather will remain unsettled through mid week with snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 935 PM EST...Our region is situated in a brief period of ridging between two storm systems. With high pressure nearby, abundant low-level moisture is in place across the region thanks to a slowly melting snowpack and little wind in place. In addition to plenty of low stratus, there are some patches of fog and mist as well. Fog and low clouds look to remain in place through the overnight hours, with temps only slowly falling a few degrees from current readings. Lows will wind up generally being in the low to middle 30s for most spots. In any areas that do fall below freezing, there could be locally icy spots as any lingering standing water may start to freeze, otherwise, it will be a damp and chilly overnight. A few patches of drizzle are possible too, but little precip is expected in total tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Another complex system will bring a widespread precipitation to the area Monday into Tuesday. Mainly rain will occur Monday into Monday night with a transition to snow Monday night into Tuesday with snowfall accumulations mainly above 1000 feet. Above 1500 feet a moderate to possibly heavy snowfall is expected occurring mainly Monday night into Tuesday then a transition to cyclonic flow, upslope and lake enhanced snow showers occurs. Another potent southern stream short wave and its associated surface will be on the approach Monday. Secondary development along the coast near DELMARVA and NYC will occur as northern stream energy interacts and phases with the southern stream. The secondary low will become the dominate Monday night and is expected to track north-northeastward across NEw England through Tuesday a very large upper level low consolidates over the Great Lakes region and Northeast. Precipitation is expected to overspread the area southwest to northeast mid-late morning. Initially it some sleet and snow are possible mainly above 1500 feet. By afternoon rain is expected, however across the higher terrain 2000+ feet of the southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains a mix of rain/snow is expected through the day. As the secondary low becomes the primary low and moves across New England colder air will be seep in and a transition to snow will occur at overnight into Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon a moderate to possibly heavy snowfall is expected to occur above 1500 feet in the western/southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains. Winter weather headlines will likely be needed. Between 1000 to 1500 feet light accumulations are expected with little if any in the valley. As for QPF Monday through Monday night around an inch is expected with higher amounts of 1 1/4 to 1 1/3 inches across the western New England, the Taconics and central/southeast Catskills. The latest NERFC forecasts have many forecast points cresting near action stage with crests between action and flood stage along the Housatonic River. Some urban flooding in poor drainage and low lying areas are possible. Southeast-east winds Monday night as the coastal low approaches will become brisk and gusty across the southern Green Mountains, Berkshires into the Litchfield Hills, across Taconics and the Adirondacks as the terrain enhances the flow. Expecting gusts up to 30 to 35 mph at the times, below wind advisory criteria. The low will begin to fill/weaken on Tuesday and with our area on its back side our area will experience cyclonic flow, upslope and lake enhanced snow showers through Tuesday night. && Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wx_WhatWX? 568 Posted November 26, 2018 This storm looks to bring a little something for everyone. On the heels of the 1-2 inches of rain that felt Saturday NWS in Upton has issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for Monday into Monday night. Details in quote below. Quote ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of northeastern New Jersey and southeastern New York, including the following areas, in northeastern New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union. In southeastern New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southern Queens, and Southern Westchester. * From Monday afternoon through late Monday night * A low pressure system will be moving across the region Monday into Monday night. Rain will become moderate to locally heavy Monday afternoon into Monday evening. With the watch area already having received 1 to 2 inches of rain Saturday and Saturday night the additional rain Monday and Monday night may result in flash flooding. * Moderate to heavy rainfall will pose a threat for flash flooding across the watch area. The flashy river basins of northeastern New Jersey and the lower Hudson Valley are especially vulnerable to quick rises and flash flooding. Urban flooding is also a possibility in the heaviest rain late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued. && Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
telejunkie 732 Posted November 26, 2018 6z NAM getting a little nutty, but I guess not too crazy when extrapolating Euro.... 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheRex 306 Posted November 26, 2018 NAM continues show snow for me while the GFS is mainly rain. The 06Z NAM may be slightly cooler than the 00Z. SREFs calling for around 6 inches. The SREFs did well the last storm. NAM and GFS output in the spoiler: Spoiler 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
telejunkie 732 Posted November 26, 2018 Albany not biting... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MaineJay 2,702 Posted November 26, 2018 32.2° Dew point of 32° Very light snow. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheRex 306 Posted November 26, 2018 BTV pretty much in the same boat. However, they did adjust their snow totals slightly for the higher terrains. 6 minutes ago, telejunkie said: Albany not biting... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
telejunkie 732 Posted November 26, 2018 14 minutes ago, TheRex said: BTV pretty much in the same boat. However, they did adjust their snow totals slightly for the higher terrains. SREF at 7” for a mean for Rutland with only one member below 2” (which has similar dynamics often with my town). Thinking Albany maybe playing catch up today...as NAM especially has been moving towards the colder Euro/FV3 camp over the last 6 cycles. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brodoser1 203 Posted November 26, 2018 well it hit 51and sunny Sunday its 41 now and cloudy Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MaineJay 2,702 Posted November 26, 2018 I guess I gotta hope that any warming coincides with the arrival of the dry slot. Students moving up the connectivity river valley aren't traditional heavy snow tracks for my area. I'm selfishly hoping the R/S line sets up primarily between my house and the jobsite which is about 10-15 miles closer to the coast. A plethora of hazards up today. GYX still has me in winter storm watch limbo. SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... *** Major winter storm to impact the area *** Low pressure over Ohio, which has produced blizzard conditions through the midwest, will continue to track northeast today. While the main low will track north of the CWA models have consistently forecast a secondary low pressure to spin up just off the New Jersey coast and track northeastwards through the Gulf of Maine. This scenario is beginning to be reflected in the obs with 08Z height falls peaking both near Lake Erie and in eastern North Carolina. As the low moves into the region expect precipitation to move from southwest to northeast through the evening hours. Precipitation will continue steadily through the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning before starting to decrease in coverage Tuesday afternoon from southwest to northeast. Precipitation falling is a sure bet at this point, but the precipitation type remains a very tricky forecast. In the north from the Canadian border through the mountains expect temperatures both aloft and at the surface to remain below freezing making for a solid snow event. Additionally the collocation of strong upward motion in the snow growth zone will make for several hours of heavy snowfall rates overnight. Overall this will make for a widespread heavy snowfall event and Winter Storm warnings have been issued for the entire former Watch area and expanded south slightly in NH through the southern edge of the White mountains. The precipitation type is equally straight forward along the immediate coastline. Here the surface low will track close enough to bring in above freezing air aloft as well as at the surface and the result will be all rain. This area will continue with no winter headlines. The trick comes in the interior regions from approx 20 miles inland through the foothills. Here expect a very sharp transition from rain to snow with snowfall gradients of 1"/mile or more very likely. There are two factors at play in this region. First is the track of the upper level low. In general the guidance has shifted this slightly inland compared to previous runs with the low right along our coast. This allows for some marginal temperatures /0C to +1.5C/ aloft to infiltrate and significantly lower the snow ratios. Meanwhile at the surface temperatures will continue to hover right near the freezing mark. 09Z obs show a light northeasterly flow which may be indicative of some weak CAD through Maine which could hold temps a bit colder in this area. Meanwhile in central NH the temperature variation is more a result of elevation with the higher portions of Merrimack, Belknap, and Sullivan county running slightly colder than the CT river and other valleys. In all of these regions, even a degree or two change in surface temperature will be enough to shift the rain/snow line and the result is high uncertainty throughout this region. Because of this uncertainty, combined with the potential for significant snowfall in a colder scenario have opted to extend the watch southwards through portions of Maine and New Hampshire. In addition to all the precipitation, the low will strengthen through the Gulf of Maine and there is potential for a brief period of wind gusts to 35kts or so along the immediate coastline overnight through early tomorrow morning as a low level jet of around 60kts at 5kft moves through the region. With a short time window and small area will not issue a wind advisory at this time but the strength of the winds will also need to be monitored. && Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 545 Posted November 26, 2018 NWS must of let the interns loose again.. Not sure i buy this 12"-18" from a mix of synoptic and lake enhancement.. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 545 Posted November 26, 2018 (edited) This is what u call a tough forecast.. 12"-16" on the Nam 2" a few inches on the rgem.. lol Edited November 26, 2018 by Mike W IN ALTMAR 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
telejunkie 732 Posted November 26, 2018 (edited) Mount Washington should easily top the 100" mark for the season with this storm...they've received 52" in October and 45" so far in November...just for comparison, they were at about 35" for the season at this point last year, 40" in 2016 and 20" in 2015 (approximately). Edited November 26, 2018 by telejunkie 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
telejunkie 732 Posted November 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said: This is what u call a tough forecast.. 12"-16" on the Nam 2" a few inches.. lol You mind forwarding those maps along to Albany office....? 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheRex 306 Posted November 26, 2018 In the spoiler is BTV's expected, high end, and low end amounts. The low end isn't much different than the expected amount. This will be a good comparison after the storm is done. Spoiler 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheRex 306 Posted November 26, 2018 12Z NAM sticking to its guns for this area. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheRex 306 Posted November 26, 2018 Looks like the 12Z GFS trended toward the NAM. The 00Z GFS gave us no accumulation and the 12Z GFS is saying 3 inches now. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
telejunkie 732 Posted November 26, 2018 Somebody just woke up...WSW posted. Quote VTZ013-014-262315- /O.NEW.KALY.WS.W.0012.181127T0000Z-181127T2100Z/ Bennington-Western Windham- Including the cities of Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, and Londonderry 1008 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations will depend on elevation. Lower elevations such as Bennington and Manchester will see less than 2 inches, however higher elevations will average 5 to 8 inches, with up to 10 inches above 2000 feet. Winds will gust as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Bennington and Western Windham Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will overspread the area early this afternoon, mixed with snow at higher elevations. Precipitation will become all snow this evening at higher elevations and continue into Tuesday. Lower elevations such as Bennington and Manchester will see mostly rain, however a change to snow could occur Tuesday morning. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
