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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 26-28, 2018 | Double Barrel Low | New England Snow Storm

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GYX with a snowfall map. 

1792100557_StormTotalSnow(1).thumb.png.37dea0bcf68d83532bb4817272a91c0b.png

Low and high end in the spoiler

SnowAmt10Prcntl.thumb.png.2ae18a298fafa97be4f36573e4c7153f.png

SnowAmt90Prcntl.thumb.png.0fefc4405e8d6badc37a5c2c341f07f5.png

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BTV NWS not biting yet on the NAM 

Quote

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

 

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Kbuf

Quote

On Tuesday night into Wednesday, model guidance suggests a trough
will pivot around the upper low from north to south. This will
enhance moisture, and even though 850mb temperatures will warm
slightly it still will be just cold enough to support snow. This
event will have both a synoptic and lake effect component with some
lake and orographic enhancement. Deeper moisture will support higher
snowfall rates, but there may not be singular convergence band.
Orographic lift will play a key role, with significantly more snow
expected across higher terrain even though there should be some snow
accumulation in all areas. There are still model differences in
timing and wind direction which will have a significant impact on
snowfall amounts. However, significant amounts are possible east of
the lakes with this event

 

EECE28A7-D19B-4658-811E-FF891EC30B13.png

48C40015-4D75-4ADA-A54B-66F3360772FA.png

Spoiler

fv3p_asnow_neus_16.png

 

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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8 hours ago, telejunkie said:

Haven’t had time to compare but FV3 is also quite abundant in moisture and colder. Would be a big hit for local mountains...

in other news, thought i’d be seeing some grass by now in my yard. Snowpack holding stronger than I expected...

Snowpack has been holding up much better than expected here also.  I hope we can keep it until the next snow storm.

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00Z NAM keeps consistent with 18Z NAM in this neck of the woods.  We had been expecting a sloppy mess this week.

 

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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GYX with another good disco

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***Significant Snow Possible for the Interior***

Focus of the extended is on the storm system evolving over the
Midwest today...set to arrive in the region later Mon. The rest
of the forecast is a blend of the multi-model consensus.

Complex storm system evolving...with a developing blizzard over
the Midwest forecast to lift into the Great Lakes Mon. That
primary low pressure center will remain strong...and allow warm
air and dry slotting to move towards the forecast area late Mon.
All model guidance forecasts some level of secondary low
pressure to develop off the New England coast...but timing and
location will be critical to duration and type of precip
locally.

All guidance deepens a new H7 low near the Srn border of the
forecast area and moves it NE. All scenarios would lead to some
level of dry slotting and mixed precip or drizzle...though the
ECMWF is strongest and farthest SE. The differences are more
apparent at H8...where the ECMWF develops that low center faster
and farther S. In addition it tracks it along the coast...vs the
GFS which brings the H8 low thru the heart of the forecast area.
The GFS would be quite a bit less snowfall based on that
evolution...but it also is an outlier as the NAM and GDPS have
sided with the ECMWF placement of the mid level low. Trying to
tease out where some of the difference may be arising using
ensemble tools...the ECMWF EPS has so far had the tendency
towards a strong secondary low pressure. However both it and the
GEFS initialized a little too weak with ridging ahead of the
S/WV trof across the Midwest. That type of forecast error had
the tendency to produce a stronger primary low pressure...but a
stronger/farther W primary low left plenty of room for a
secondary to develop still. Given that the ensemble systems have
sorted themselves into their centers...and the CMC is in
agreement with the EPS...a straight blend of that available
guidance more or less produces a 75/25 mix favoring the ECMWF
temps aloft.

Possibly more important will be surface temps. Forecast
soundings show that temps aloft are going to be quite cold
across the interior...but the near surface layer will remain
above freezing for many areas at onset. With no strong warm
nose aloft...the higher terrain is a near lock for significant
accumulations of snowfall. S of the mtns however is a tough
forecast. If we can get a strong secondary low to
develop...parts of the foothills and interior coastal counties
may flip to heavy snow for a few hours. That may be enough for 3
to 6 inches of wet snow. I left snow totals alone above 1500
ft...but did make sure that totals were lower below that where
mixed precip and rain will cut into totals. The end result is a
very sharp transition zone that goes from little to no
snowfall...to 6 plus over just a few miles. I have issued winter
storm watch for those areas most likely to see 6 inches or more
at this time. By midday Tue precip should be winding down S of
the mtns...though any deformation band or orographically induced
snowfall will linger in the higher terrain.

&&

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47 minutes ago, TheRex said:

00Z NAM keeps consistent with 18Z NAM in this neck of the woods.  We had been expecting a sloppy mess this week.

When NAM and Euro agree...tough to argue against. Interesting to me is that the FV3 version of GFS has been displaying this scenario for a while as well. Seemed like an outlier when comparing other globals so disregarded it...but something to keep note on if this colder scenario comes to fruition. 

Still going to be slopfest here in the valley, but I don't mind if local elevation gets blanketed in white and I get wet...less snow removal isn't a problem in my book.

PS...Quebec City looks like just got NAM'ed...

Edited by telejunkie

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Sunday's 9:35 p.m. AFDALY. If your elevation is 1500' you look to be in the game for some accumulations.

Quote

-- Highlight Changed Discussion --


000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
935 PM EST Sun Nov 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Another storm system will impact the region bringing
widespread precipitation, rain and snow, Monday into Tuesday.
Moderate to possibly heavy snowfall accumulations for elevations
mainly above 1500 feet. The weather will remain unsettled through
mid week with snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 935 PM EST...Our region is situated in a brief period of
ridging between two storm systems. With high pressure nearby,
abundant low-level moisture is in place across the region thanks
to a slowly melting snowpack and little wind in place. In
addition to plenty of low stratus, there are some patches of fog
and mist as well. Fog and low clouds look to remain in place
through the overnight hours, with temps only slowly falling a
few degrees from current readings. Lows will wind up generally
being in the low to middle 30s for most spots. In any areas that
do fall below freezing, there could be locally icy spots as any
lingering standing water may start to freeze, otherwise, it
will be a damp and chilly overnight. A few patches of drizzle
are possible too, but little precip is expected in total
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Another complex system will bring a widespread precipitation to
the area Monday into Tuesday. Mainly rain will occur Monday
into Monday night with a transition to snow Monday night into
Tuesday with snowfall accumulations mainly above 1000 feet.
Above 1500 feet a moderate to possibly heavy snowfall is
expected occurring mainly Monday night into Tuesday then a
transition to cyclonic flow, upslope and lake enhanced snow
showers occurs.

Another potent southern stream short wave and its associated
surface will be on the approach Monday. Secondary development
along the coast near DELMARVA and NYC will occur as northern
stream energy interacts and phases with the southern stream.
The secondary low will become the dominate Monday night and
is expected to track north-northeastward across NEw England
through Tuesday a very large upper level low consolidates over
the Great Lakes region and Northeast.

Precipitation is expected to overspread the area southwest to
northeast mid-late morning. Initially it some sleet and snow
are possible mainly above 1500 feet. By afternoon rain is
expected, however across the higher terrain 2000+ feet of the
southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains a mix of
rain/snow is expected through the day. As the secondary low
becomes the primary low and moves across New England colder air
will be seep in and a transition to snow will occur at overnight
into Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon a moderate to
possibly heavy snowfall is expected to occur above 1500 feet in
the western/southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains.
Winter weather headlines will likely be needed. Between 1000 to
1500 feet light accumulations are expected with little if any
in the valley.

As for QPF Monday through Monday night around an inch is
expected with higher amounts of 1 1/4 to 1 1/3 inches across
the western New England, the Taconics and central/southeast
Catskills. The latest NERFC forecasts have many forecast points
cresting near action stage with crests between action and flood
stage along the Housatonic River. Some urban flooding in poor
drainage and low lying areas are possible.

Southeast-east winds Monday night as the coastal low approaches
will become brisk and gusty across the southern Green Mountains,
Berkshires into the Litchfield Hills, across Taconics and the
Adirondacks as the terrain enhances the flow. Expecting gusts
up to 30 to 35 mph at the times, below wind advisory criteria.

The low will begin to fill/weaken on Tuesday and with our area
on its back side our area will experience cyclonic flow, upslope
and lake enhanced snow showers through Tuesday night.

&&

 

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 This storm looks to bring a little something for everyone. On the heels of the 1-2 inches of rain that felt Saturday NWS in Upton has issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for Monday into Monday night. Details in quote below.

Quote

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of northeastern New Jersey and
  southeastern New York, including the following areas, in
  northeastern New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern
  Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex,
  Western Passaic, and Western Union. In southeastern New York,
  Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Queens,
  Northern Westchester, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland,
  Southern Queens, and Southern Westchester.

* From Monday afternoon through late Monday night

* A low pressure system will be moving across the region Monday
  into Monday night. Rain will become moderate to locally heavy
  Monday afternoon into Monday evening. With the watch area
  already having received 1 to 2 inches of rain Saturday and
  Saturday night the additional rain Monday and Monday night may
  result in flash flooding.

* Moderate to heavy rainfall will pose a threat for flash flooding
  across the watch area. The flashy river basins of northeastern
  New Jersey and the lower Hudson Valley are especially vulnerable
  to quick rises and flash flooding. Urban flooding is also a
  possibility in the heaviest rain late Monday afternoon into
  Monday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

 

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6z NAM getting a little nutty, but I guess not too crazy when extrapolating Euro....

E4157D84-184A-48D0-8D63-06887299CBCB.gif

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NAM continues show snow for me while the GFS is mainly rain.  The 06Z NAM may be slightly cooler than the 00Z.  SREFs calling for around 6 inches.  The SREFs did well the last storm.

NAM and GFS output in the spoiler:

Spoiler

snku_acc.us_ne.png

 

snku_acc.us_ne.png

 

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Albany not biting...

8B4B4CE3-11BD-4E87-A17D-C2EA3E99A6A9.png

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32.2° 

Dew point of 32°

Very light snow.

378773344_GYX_loop(4).gif.07726f8f4eab03f523bdeb7f4a4bdd1b.gif

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BTV pretty much in the same boat.  However, they did adjust their snow totals slightly for the higher terrains.

 

6 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Albany not biting...

8B4B4CE3-11BD-4E87-A17D-C2EA3E99A6A9.png

 

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14 minutes ago, TheRex said:

BTV pretty much in the same boat.  However, they did adjust their snow totals slightly for the higher terrains.

 

 

SREF at 7” for a mean for Rutland with only one member below 2” (which has similar dynamics often with my town). Thinking Albany maybe playing catch up today...as NAM especially has been moving towards the colder Euro/FV3 camp over the last 6 cycles.

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I guess I gotta hope that any warming coincides with the arrival of the dry slot.  Students moving up the connectivity river valley aren't traditional heavy snow tracks for my area. 

I'm selfishly hoping the R/S line sets up primarily between my house and the jobsite which is about 10-15 miles closer to the coast. 

A plethora of hazards up today. 

Screenshot_20181126-091423_Chrome.thumb.jpg.5fb284a481dc28d35d46a6d9480b8af2.jpg

GYX still has me in winter storm watch limbo. 

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*** Major winter storm to impact the area ***

Low pressure over Ohio, which has produced blizzard conditions
through the midwest, will continue to track northeast today.
While the main low will track north of the CWA models have
consistently forecast a secondary low pressure to spin up just
off the New Jersey coast and track northeastwards through the
Gulf of Maine. This scenario is beginning to be reflected in the
obs with 08Z height falls peaking both near Lake Erie and in
eastern North Carolina.

 As the low moves into the region expect precipitation to move
from southwest to northeast through the evening hours.
Precipitation will continue steadily through the overnight hours
and into Tuesday morning before starting to decrease in
coverage Tuesday afternoon from southwest to northeast.
Precipitation falling is a sure bet at this point, but the
precipitation type remains a very tricky forecast.

In the north from the Canadian border through the mountains
expect temperatures both aloft and at the surface to remain
below freezing making for a solid snow event. Additionally the
collocation of strong upward motion in the snow growth zone
will make for several hours of heavy snowfall rates overnight.
Overall this will make for a widespread heavy snowfall event and
Winter Storm warnings have been issued for the entire former
Watch area and expanded south slightly in NH through the
southern edge of the White mountains.

The precipitation type is equally straight forward along the
immediate coastline. Here the surface low will track close
enough to bring in above freezing air aloft as well as at the
surface and the result will be all rain. This area will continue
with no winter headlines.

The trick comes in the interior regions from approx 20 miles
inland through the foothills. Here expect a very sharp
transition from rain to snow with snowfall gradients of 1"/mile
or more very likely. There are two factors at play in this
region. First is the track of the upper level low. In general
the guidance has shifted this slightly inland compared to
previous runs with the low right along our coast. This allows
for some marginal temperatures /0C to +1.5C/ aloft to infiltrate
and significantly lower the snow ratios. Meanwhile at the
surface temperatures will continue to hover right near the
freezing mark. 09Z obs show a light northeasterly flow which may
be indicative of some weak CAD through Maine which could hold
temps a bit colder in this area. Meanwhile in central NH the
temperature variation is more a result of elevation with the
higher portions of Merrimack, Belknap, and Sullivan county
running slightly colder than the CT river and other valleys. In
all of these regions, even a degree or two change in surface
temperature will be enough to shift the rain/snow line and the
result is high uncertainty throughout this region. Because of
this uncertainty, combined with the potential for significant
snowfall in a colder scenario have opted to extend the watch
southwards through portions of Maine and New Hampshire.

In addition to all the precipitation, the low will strengthen
through the Gulf of Maine and there is potential for a brief
period of wind gusts to 35kts or so along the immediate
coastline overnight through early tomorrow morning as a low
level jet of around 60kts at 5kft moves through the region. With
a short time window and small area will not issue a wind
advisory at this time but the strength of the winds will also
need to be monitored.

&&

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NWS must of let the interns loose again..

Not sure i buy this 12"-18" from a mix of synoptic and lake enhancement..

 

D45E4037-2A79-4BED-9F89-5A810FC072FD.thumb.png.58c543db248d73f3796e57cdc98ad0a6.png

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This is what u call a tough forecast..

12"-16" on the Nam

2" a few inches on the rgem.. lol

sn10_acc.us_ne (6).png

rgem_asnow_neus_54.png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR
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Mount Washington should easily top the 100" mark for the season with this storm...they've received 52" in October and 45" so far in November...just for comparison, they were at about 35" for the season at this point last year, 40" in 2016 and 20" in 2015 (approximately).

Edited by telejunkie
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7 minutes ago, Mike W IN ALTMAR said:

This is what u call a tough forecast..

12"-16" on the Nam

2" a few inches.. lol

You mind forwarding those maps along to Albany office....? :classic_laugh:

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In the spoiler is BTV's expected, high end, and low end amounts.  The low end isn't much different than the expected amount.  This will be a good comparison after the storm is done.

 

Spoiler

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

 

Maximum Potential Snow Accumulation

 

Minimum Potential Snow Accumulation

 

 

 

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12Z NAM sticking to its guns for this area.

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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Looks like the 12Z GFS trended toward the NAM.  The 00Z GFS gave us no accumulation and the 12Z GFS is saying 3 inches now.

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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Somebody just woke up...WSW posted.

 

Quote

 

VTZ013-014-262315-
/O.NEW.KALY.WS.W.0012.181127T0000Z-181127T2100Z/
Bennington-Western Windham-
Including the cities of Stamford, Bennington,
Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, and Londonderry
1008 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1000 FEET FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations will depend
on elevation. Lower elevations such as Bennington and Manchester
will see less than 2 inches, however higher elevations will
average 5 to 8 inches, with up to 10 inches above 2000 feet.
Winds will gust as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Bennington and Western Windham Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will overspread the area early this
afternoon, mixed with snow at higher elevations. Precipitation
will become all snow this evening at higher elevations and
continue into Tuesday. Lower elevations such as Bennington and
Manchester will see mostly rain, however a change to snow could
occur Tuesday morning. Plan on slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty
winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

 

 

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