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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

jdrenken

November 25th-26th, 2018 | Blizzard

Staff Recommended Posts

The models have gotten a better handle on what's to come in the post-Thanksgiving period.

GFS-FV3 and GFS both stall the ULL and continue the snow into the 27th. Areas of NW WI on the GFS has almost 3 days of snow!

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh132-180.gif.677a0fbf650aa23c09211e8ce4c8514b.gif

While the Euro is more progressive.ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh144-168.gif.5968fece370e728cb075cb88e0bfed80.gif

 

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Quote

However, a deep trough will dig across the central
CONUS supporting a deepening surface low over the southern Plains,
which could impact the region as early as Sunday night. This system
could pack a punch and remain over the region over a couple days.
The general thought for the forecast is that the initial p-type for
this low will be rain on Sunday night into Monday before the system
draws some cold air back into the region for Monday night into
Tuesday. Monday night and beyond can get messy with rain, snow, and
mixed precipitation all plausible at this point, and this system
will be something worth watching over the holiday weekend as folks
return to normal schedules next week. 

CLE thinks it’s something to keep an eye on..

 

Edited by Hiramite

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This is certainly worth keeping an eye on......

 

From DTX - mentioning a potential synoptic even in this time frame......

Long range guidance continues to indicate a very active pattern for
the long term period. The GFS and ECMWF are in generally good
agreement with southeast Michigan being in between amplifying
northern stream and southern stream energy, with the result being a
period of light to moderate showers during the day Saturday.
Temperature profiles will remain above freezing to result in rain as
the ptype. As this first system exits by Sunday, only a brief
reprieve looks to be in store as additional Pacific energy ejecting
out of the Rockies results in potentially deep low pressure
developing in the mid-Mississippi Valley by Sunday evening. Still
plenty of time to watch this system unfold as it impacts the region
for early next week, with the exact synoptic evolution and track
having significant implications on ptype.

 

Edited by ncinthenext3

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As of this morning, it appears that all the globals take it into MI.

WPC concurs...

 

8C619808-FFE4-4E71-8F79-15087FFC59B8.gif

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That 18z NavGem is interesting.

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I’m cautiously optimistic. I like to see the NAM south, but definitely need the Euro to follow suit. I’d hate to have this miss just to the northwest. I’ve yet to see any real accumulation. 

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7 hours ago, chicagosnow said:

I’m cautiously optimistic. I like to see the NAM south, but definitely need the Euro to follow suit. I’d hate to have this miss just to the northwest. I’ve yet to see any real accumulation. 

You’re looking good! 

 

 

C96119FF-8041-4CD6-BA2D-0B1B0E98C278.png

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9 hours ago, chicagosnow said:

I’m cautiously optimistic. I like to see the NAM south, but definitely need the Euro to follow suit. I’d hate to have this miss just to the northwest. I’ve yet to see any real accumulation. 

We've had about 3" or so down this year. Still have some snow in the front yard. This system holds some promise. The further  NW away from the lake one is  the better. Added warmth  from lake could make temp profiles dicey especially if track shifts more NW. 

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2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

We've had about 3" or so down this year. Still have some snow in the front yard. This system holds some promise. The further  NW away from the lake one is  the better. Added warmth  from lake could make temp profiles dicey especially if track shifts more NW. 

The lake is certainly a problem though it’s not as warm as normal I’d guess. The biggest problem we’ve had at my place is the urban heat island and the unfortunate timing of the snow, which has been primarily after sunrise. Combined with the fact it’s still very early in the season and you get little sticking snow in the city. 

I see the GFS has gone way NW while the NAM has stayed south. I want snow more than anything, but I keep reminding myself it’s early. 

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9 minutes ago, chicagosnow said:

The lake is certainly a problem though it’s not as warm as normal I’d guess. The biggest problem we’ve had at my place is the urban heat island and the unfortunate timing of the snow, which has been primarily after sunrise. Combined with the fact it’s still very early in the season and you get little sticking snow in the city. 

I see the GFS has gone way NW while the NAM has stayed south. I want snow more than anything, but I keep reminding myself it’s early. 

It appears the GFS strengthened the SLP slightly, which may be the reason it shifted it N - NW more than the 6z run.  It will be interesting to watch this unfold and curious what the Euro will show for SLP placement.  You are right, it is early, but it goes fast.  Looking forward to all the tracking this season!

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GFS has been all over the place however it’s a little troubling that the Canadian followed suit in moving north as well. The EURO will be big.

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_084.png

Edited by ILSNOW

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17 minutes ago, Dendritic_Growth said:

It appears the GFS strengthened the SLP slightly, which may be the reason it shifted it N - NW more than the 6z run.  It will be interesting to watch this unfold and curious what the Euro will show for SLP placement.  You are right, it is early, but it goes fast.  Looking forward to all the tracking this season!

Climo wise at this point in November tend to lean bets on more NW solution. See this being more Dubuque-Madison type line for heavy snowfall

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5 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Climo wise at this point in November tend to lean bets on more NW solution. See this being more Dubuque-Madison type line for heavy snowfall

Yeah well we sure didn’t get much help from those southern systems as far as NW goes. Par for the course for us to miss to the south and the north.

I’m just surprised by the GFS total 180.

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6 minutes ago, chicagosnow said:

*surprised after NAM went south and more in-line with it

 

Yeah will have to see if Euro stays south or is stronger NW solution. NAM imo still in wacka- doodle range. Tracked way too many storms to see heavy QPF totals evaporate and substantial track shifts on the NAM as event drew closer

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NAM/GFS kinda flip flopped from 0Z runs. Got a little optimistic with GFS showing near 2" consistently and hoping it was just the long range NAM being the long range NAM. Now I have to root for the NAM and hope some sort of sampling occured between the two runs.

Kinda weird as it started with 6Z runs and not full data runs.

 

Either way I cannot complain, would be padding the monthly total. I'll take a miss from this one for a few good systems come mid Dec.

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1 minute ago, Cary67 said:

Yeah will have to see if Euro stays south or is stronger NW solution. NAM imo still in wacka- doodle range. Tracked way too many storms to see heavy QPF totals evaporate and substantial track shifts on the NAM as event drew closer

So is the Euro more in line with the 0Z GFS

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24 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Climo wise at this point in November tend to lean bets on more NW solution. See this being more Dubuque-Madison type line for heavy snowfall

I would agree with your statement. 

This November has been a bit unusual for us downstate toward Peoria, as we have seen a couple of events giving us a couple of inches of snow and a few more events giving us a dusting.  Typically, this doesn't occur over a prolonged period of time like it has this year and I am curious as to how this plays out through the Winter season. 

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On 11/21/2018 at 7:08 PM, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Waste of a negative tilt if you ask me :classic_dry:

IDzC05C.png

Shhh, it's winter now. Severe wx had it's chance 😆

  • Haha 1

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Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
216 PM CST Fri Nov 23 2018

ILZ003>005-008-010-011-240430-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.A.0004.181125T1200Z-181126T0600Z/
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Ogle-Lee-DeKalb-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Woodstock, Oregon,
Dixon, and DeKalb
216 PM CST Fri Nov 23 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess
  of 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Illinois.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Snow
  covered roads and significantly reduced visibility are possible.

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