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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

November 30, 2018 | Wintry Weather | Warm Air Advection

Staff Recommended Posts

 

Setup Description

Northern stream Clipper with southern stream energy interaction

Hello, folks.

Quick thread opener here to allow for a place to discuss a possible clipper storm that may try to come in unnoticed and hits by surprise, if there are surprises these days in weather.

Taking a look at the BSR closely, even though I imagine very few people would start a high percentage failure storm thread,  it suggests that a clipper will be diving southeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic, and at the same time there´s a hint of a bit of low-pressure energy/trof of low pressure from the southern stream tracking towards the SE CONUS. From what I gathered from the BSR images, is that there´s a possibility that these two pieces could join up and for a bigger storm or just stay separate and the region get a decaying clipper or just a regular clipper passing through. But in case there´s some kind of interaction with the southern stream energy, we could get something out of this.

Granted, the BSR shows no full-blown storm, Actually, the signal is weak and on the 30th of November, quite confusing.

Let´s see if this evolves or just falls apart, just before the bigger ticket item progged to hit the area between December 2-3.

 


Supportive Data

BSR

18_1128-00.gif.721a10e035070bc87ad7e1f21a7e39b7.gif18_1128-12.gif.64a64ad881887807cb32a04dab5fd97e.gif18_1129-00.gif.d2a2aa24c34098983fdddaf04466227c.gif

18_1129-12.gif.92c77a7451b9c6987aac60a606bc064f.gif18_1130-00.gif.5209e2b63f5b8e14d8e3c7eef7c3ce58.gif18_1130-12.gif.276a7e4b5c6945d896e269b60773825c.gif

 

In case this does not pan out, the thread will eventually fall to the bottom of the page. And if for some reason this is a fantasy possibility only or related to any other storm, we can act accordingly later.

Will add more support to the opener later if there is any available.

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Not much support at all so far, besides the 12Z GFS showing the clipper making to the mid-Atlantic and then dying.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh174-222.gif.3e90bad87ea10386b548b1d782881877.gif

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Now we have heavyweight support from the 00Z ECMWF.

This one comes in just prior to the possible December 2nd-3rd storm.

On the image below, we see the clipper diving southeastward towards the Ohio Valley as a southern stream energy passes over Florida and goes out to sea.

Right behind comes what seems to be the December 2nd-3rd storm potential.

Webp.net-gifmaker.gif.fb4a595ae3f5b530258c31b01d6526cc.gif

Let´s see how this will go since the BSR signals a weak clipper and a piece of southern stream energy, and then the signal becomes very fuzzy.

Or maybe this is just model confusion concerning the December 2nd-3rd storm possibility.

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12Z ECMWF continues to say that the region will get a possible storm from a clipper that dives towards the southern plains and then tracks eastward towards the mid-Atlantic just before December 2-3 storm possibility.

 

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19 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

12Z ECMWF continues to say that the region will get a possible storm from a clipper that dives towards the southern plains and then tracks eastward towards the mid-Atlantic just before December 2-3 storm possibility.

 

Need to watch as this could be a totally different version of the possible December 1-3 storm, as there seems to be no southern stream energy involvement aside from moisture from the GOMEX. May have changed from a Miller A type of storm to a clipper one.

If so, this thread will be incorporated into the other one.

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GFS has been showing this getting to the coast hitting Virginia with snow and rain.

We will see if there´s any more support. 

The way the storms on the models have progressed, there´s more confidence now that this may indeed be a separate event from the Dec 2-3 storm.

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Pretty sure this is the right storm.. lol

Amazing how many dual lows we’ve had this fall..

Decent cold out ahead of this system...Could be some front end frozen regardless of track, granted we see precipitation..

D8C5693B-710D-48DE-963D-50112D398BAD.png

B0BCE7A3-28BE-4BE7-8F4B-90AA26C56AA6.png

Edited by Mike W IN ALTMAR

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00Z ECMWF now is showing some hope for this clipper.

Moisture actually gets near the coast.

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12Z ECMWF brings some snow love for the northern Mid -Atlantic from the clipper.

Starting to look like opening this thread was good.

output_vCFmsw.gif.3f13057418e2bb58ea2ae4121ed457a0.gif

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My only question with this thread, now that it has better model support, is that it's being called a Clipper. By common definition, it does not seem to fit that bill. 

More like a weak mid level "wrinkle"  (that to my eye, comes ashore in the PAC NW near OR) that congeals a bit when E of the Rockies, and then pushes some WAA out in front, into a retreating cold source. Plenty enough to bring wintery precip, as it does grab some GOM moisture as it comes across the lower MW prior to having eyes for S MidAtl. 

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3 hours ago, UTSwiinii said:

My only question with this thread, now that it has better model support, is that it's being called a Clipper. By common definition, it does not seem to fit that bill. 

More like a weak mid level "wrinkle"  (that to my eye, comes ashore in the PAC NW near OR) that congeals a bit when E of the Rockies, and then pushes some WAA out in front, into a retreating cold source. Plenty enough to bring wintery precip, as it does grab some GOM moisture as it comes across the lower MW prior to having eyes for S MidAtl. 

@UTSwiinii ,  thanks for shedding some light on this.

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For those of us near the Delaware the big news is "not much water before Saturday."  This Friday-event appears to be a fast mover, with little precip falling.  We shouldn't see significant rain until Saturday.

That means Tu-Wed-Thu are dry... which is kind of awesome.  If Friday turns out to be just a shower or brief snow squall, all the better.

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2 hours ago, brodoser1 said:

Local Mets calling for 50 deg sat  let’s see how they change 

What did you mean... " How they change ". Am I missing something? Just wondering

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HRDPS brings hope...

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh36-48.thumb.gif.bc5d08d6c9eb4c67b9c031376a11771f.gif

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11 minutes ago, brodoser1 said:

very little hope

Ok scrooge 😜😜

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10 hours ago, Solstice said:

HRDPS brings hope...

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh36-48.thumb.gif.bc5d08d6c9eb4c67b9c031376a11771f.gif

I agree that there will be a narrow stripe of wintry precip with this wave, but I'd be surprised if maximum accumulations exceed 3" anywhere in the Northeast. Lower elevations will be lucky to see 1"

With that said, nuisance events like this one are notorious for causing numerous accidents. 

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Thinking we get some sprinkles or flurries tomorrow. 

38DEEE11-CF46-4AE0-AB53-B71A396D544D.thumb.png.7573fc7b70ba9290e9adef787c135fdd.png

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Some squalls absolutely flying through PA:

1300033691_hfd_None_anim(4).gif.c631be202a61db59e1a0ff2c4b09b4a8.gif

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Had a light snow shower moved through around 11:00am. Nothing falling now as I type but north of me around Poughkeepsie could still seeing some flakes as per radar.

 
WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=25726573&lat=41.05907822&lon=-74.14517975&label=Ramsey%2C+NJ

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Ran out for lunch - some light flurries, though the temp is above freezing.  Looks and feels snowy - which is so very scientific, i know.  I'm here for you guys... :chicken_dance-176:

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Getting a light mix now here in Southern Dutchess county NY  Temp is 36.

WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=25726638&lat=41.05907822&lon=-74.14517975&label=Ramsey%2C+NJ
 

 

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