Phased Vort 1,366 Posted November 21, 2018 Setup Description Northern stream Clipper with southern stream energy interaction Hello, folks. Quick thread opener here to allow for a place to discuss a possible clipper storm that may try to come in unnoticed and hits by surprise, if there are surprises these days in weather. Taking a look at the BSR closely, even though I imagine very few people would start a high percentage failure storm thread, it suggests that a clipper will be diving southeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic, and at the same time there´s a hint of a bit of low-pressure energy/trof of low pressure from the southern stream tracking towards the SE CONUS. From what I gathered from the BSR images, is that there´s a possibility that these two pieces could join up and for a bigger storm or just stay separate and the region get a decaying clipper or just a regular clipper passing through. But in case there´s some kind of interaction with the southern stream energy, we could get something out of this. Granted, the BSR shows no full-blown storm, Actually, the signal is weak and on the 30th of November, quite confusing. Let´s see if this evolves or just falls apart, just before the bigger ticket item progged to hit the area between December 2-3. Supportive Data BSR In case this does not pan out, the thread will eventually fall to the bottom of the page. And if for some reason this is a fantasy possibility only or related to any other storm, we can act accordingly later. Will add more support to the opener later if there is any available. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phased Vort 1,366 Posted November 21, 2018 Not much support at all so far, besides the 12Z GFS showing the clipper making to the mid-Atlantic and then dying. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phased Vort 1,366 Posted November 22, 2018 Now we have heavyweight support from the 00Z ECMWF. This one comes in just prior to the possible December 2nd-3rd storm. On the image below, we see the clipper diving southeastward towards the Ohio Valley as a southern stream energy passes over Florida and goes out to sea. Right behind comes what seems to be the December 2nd-3rd storm potential. Let´s see how this will go since the BSR signals a weak clipper and a piece of southern stream energy, and then the signal becomes very fuzzy. Or maybe this is just model confusion concerning the December 2nd-3rd storm possibility. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phased Vort 1,366 Posted November 22, 2018 12Z ECMWF continues to say that the region will get a possible storm from a clipper that dives towards the southern plains and then tracks eastward towards the mid-Atlantic just before December 2-3 storm possibility. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phased Vort 1,366 Posted November 22, 2018 19 minutes ago, Phased Vort said: 12Z ECMWF continues to say that the region will get a possible storm from a clipper that dives towards the southern plains and then tracks eastward towards the mid-Atlantic just before December 2-3 storm possibility. Need to watch as this could be a totally different version of the possible December 1-3 storm, as there seems to be no southern stream energy involvement aside from moisture from the GOMEX. May have changed from a Miller A type of storm to a clipper one. If so, this thread will be incorporated into the other one. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phased Vort 1,366 Posted November 24, 2018 GFS has been showing this getting to the coast hitting Virginia with snow and rain. We will see if there´s any more support. The way the storms on the models have progressed, there´s more confidence now that this may indeed be a separate event from the Dec 2-3 storm. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike W IN ALTMAR 545 Posted November 25, 2018 (edited) Pretty sure this is the right storm.. lol Amazing how many dual lows we’ve had this fall.. Decent cold out ahead of this system...Could be some front end frozen regardless of track, granted we see precipitation.. Edited November 25, 2018 by Mike W IN ALTMAR Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phased Vort 1,366 Posted November 25, 2018 00Z ECMWF now is showing some hope for this clipper. Moisture actually gets near the coast. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phased Vort 1,366 Posted November 25, 2018 12Z ECMWF brings some snow love for the northern Mid -Atlantic from the clipper. Starting to look like opening this thread was good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
UTSwiinii 1,883 Posted November 25, 2018 My only question with this thread, now that it has better model support, is that it's being called a Clipper. By common definition, it does not seem to fit that bill. More like a weak mid level "wrinkle" (that to my eye, comes ashore in the PAC NW near OR) that congeals a bit when E of the Rockies, and then pushes some WAA out in front, into a retreating cold source. Plenty enough to bring wintery precip, as it does grab some GOM moisture as it comes across the lower MW prior to having eyes for S MidAtl. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phased Vort 1,366 Posted November 26, 2018 3 hours ago, UTSwiinii said: My only question with this thread, now that it has better model support, is that it's being called a Clipper. By common definition, it does not seem to fit that bill. More like a weak mid level "wrinkle" (that to my eye, comes ashore in the PAC NW near OR) that congeals a bit when E of the Rockies, and then pushes some WAA out in front, into a retreating cold source. Plenty enough to bring wintery precip, as it does grab some GOM moisture as it comes across the lower MW prior to having eyes for S MidAtl. @UTSwiinii , thanks for shedding some light on this. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phased Vort 1,366 Posted November 26, 2018 18Z FV3 GFS: Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RobBucksPA 447 Posted November 27, 2018 For those of us near the Delaware the big news is "not much water before Saturday." This Friday-event appears to be a fast mover, with little precip falling. We shouldn't see significant rain until Saturday. That means Tu-Wed-Thu are dry... which is kind of awesome. If Friday turns out to be just a shower or brief snow squall, all the better. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brodoser1 203 Posted November 27, 2018 Local Mets calling for 50 deg sat let’s see how they change Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Snowcrazed71 96 Posted November 28, 2018 2 hours ago, brodoser1 said: Local Mets calling for 50 deg sat let’s see how they change What did you mean... " How they change ". Am I missing something? Just wondering Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Solstice 958 Posted November 29, 2018 HRDPS brings hope... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brodoser1 203 Posted November 29, 2018 very little hope Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Snowcrazed71 96 Posted November 29, 2018 11 minutes ago, brodoser1 said: very little hope Ok scrooge 😜😜 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StL WeatherJunkie 815 Posted November 29, 2018 10 hours ago, Solstice said: HRDPS brings hope... I agree that there will be a narrow stripe of wintry precip with this wave, but I'd be surprised if maximum accumulations exceed 3" anywhere in the Northeast. Lower elevations will be lucky to see 1" With that said, nuisance events like this one are notorious for causing numerous accidents. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StretchCT 2,118 Posted November 30, 2018 Thinking we get some sprinkles or flurries tomorrow. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Solstice 958 Posted November 30, 2018 Some squalls absolutely flying through PA: 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wx_WhatWX? 568 Posted November 30, 2018 Had a light snow shower moved through around 11:00am. Nothing falling now as I type but north of me around Poughkeepsie could still seeing some flakes as per radar. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StretchCT 2,118 Posted November 30, 2018 MPing reports - larger flakes/symbols are more recent, not intensity. https://mping.ou.edu/display/ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hobie 220 Posted November 30, 2018 Ran out for lunch - some light flurries, though the temp is above freezing. Looks and feels snowy - which is so very scientific, i know. I'm here for you guys... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wx_WhatWX? 568 Posted November 30, 2018 Getting a light mix now here in Southern Dutchess county NY Temp is 36. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
