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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

December 5, 2018 | Light Snow Disturbance

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Introduction & Overall setup

 

Hello everyone! 

By the time the possible event for this thread arrives, the region may have gone through the rains of a couple of Great Lakes cutter storms, or least warmer storms. As a result, some of you may be thinking to yourselves, where is the sleet. the snow? This thread is the platform to be used as an attempt to foment discussion, with the hope that answers, tracking, and analysis may lay credence to the possibility of a storm evolving and affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions, perhaps with wintry precipitation.

On this thread´s opener post, we will take a look at a plethora of data in the form of images, that indicate, or at least hint at the possibility of a storm developing for the region. The data will be used as support to give weight to the thread and its idea as well as act as a foundation to the exchange of ideas and points of view on how this event may unfold. As is customary, the data presented my directly or indirectly support the envisioned weather event.

For the last 4 days or so, observations made on many different sources of information, such as teleconnections, BSR, EPS Control MSLP output, EPS Mean H5 anomaly, EPS Mean 24-hour precipitation, CPC 8-14 day outlook, precipitation analogs, and many different NCEP GEFS and ESRL/PSD output, were very informative and as a result, led to this thread as a way to promote debate on this possible event.

An overall look at the aforementioned data listed in the previous paragraph led me to formulate the illustration below as a mere description of this possible weather event. 

 

1890980776_December6-8Storm.thumb.png.99021614cef97ca0bb3f087210a5b59a.png

 

Please continue on to the next pages to see many different data observed for this event.

 


 

BSR Depiction

Surface representation signal does not look not that impressive. H5 signal is somewhat more promising.

Surface:

output_gvTkAC.gif.d5bd1b40c2ca512eb117c672ae15915a.gif

H5:

output_JLlnmK.gif.d5c8eb038ea10c39310ed47f8ad82a46.gif

 


NCEP Ensemble Mean outputs

 

Looking at the images below, it´s possible to interpret that some kind of a progressive to a somewhat deeper storm may arise.

 

MSLP / 1000-500mb THK                                          North America 500mb                               Northern Hemisphere 500mb

mslpusanim.gif.4d3211d62eebc03481fb3803d077463a.gifm500zusanim.gif.9fb1f8ea8c5fe5bba8d7853bffeb79ab.gifm500z_f240_nhsm.gif.1cd363c046f661cb09ff76b6131eb45c.gif

 

Precipitation location aspect and 850mb temperatures give us some hint that moisture could be available together with colder H85 temperatures.

 

Precipitation & Standard Deviation                           850mb Temperature Anomaly                                 850mb Normalized Anomaly

prec_f240_ussm.gif.8659971d7f7db3c71ec2f2d09bff3486.gift850anom_f240_ussm.gif.987377136b7b37581b7fe22a308330fe.gift850nanom_f240_ussm.gif.ee297dbd0fecdcf606c5af4529c599b5.gif

 


 

ESRL/PSD products outputs:

 

A different perspective given by the PSD outputs.

But the same idea though, a possibility of a progressive to a somewhat deeper storm.

 

SLP/1000-500mb thickness                                    North America H5 heights

mslp_f264_ussm.png.5c13879551d53b16b9a4eb8b7aa8f1c4.pngz500_mean_f264_ussmPSD.png.527bd665b5714ffe074bd8a9cb9f66be.png

 

Same idea as well, possible moisture available along with colder 850mb temperatures.

 

      850MB Temperature Anomaly                                Precipitation, Mean & Standard Deviation

t850_anom_f264_ussm.png.70a025dae50db5cc9f2707bc6a13bada.pngapcp_f264_ussm.png.755db5c13668e05c8d7202b540be1912.png

 


 

Teleconnections:

 

Teleconnection signals, for the most part, appear to be indicative of the idea of a progressive storm given unfavorable negative PNA state. However, given the transitioning state of some of the teleconnections more or less during this time frame, one could not throw out a somewhat more robust storm.

Please see below ESRL/PSD, GEFS and EPS 46 days representations:

ESRL/PSD

1590627688_4indices(1).thumb.png.cf509f58aa0e8b41965c4e2de80d8496.png

 

GEFS:

363246672_AOGEFS.png.2d3f06236aded6f19841f729296dc68a.png526226812_EPOGEFS.png.a643fd24a59da5f0a019839af1279ee0.png

928433536_NAOGEFS.png.11232416a6e7e422f01e7449c063c315.png1341296434_PNAGEFS.png.3c63c56b29ef6898b914a28fb44716f4.png

 

EPS:

112936536_AOEPS46.png.1417c162903d181f62e98836575b2669.png1403069179_EPOEPS46.png.d43ef3fdd8fdca95c11dd30aa726bbdc.png

526799000_NAOEPS46.png.5da5bfee02ba8d5d57cc4b4a00312487.png2826716_PNAEPS46.png.3222b7d39ae0ec72d27e7c1c517b57ba.png

 


 

Precipitation Analogs & CPC Outlook

Taking a look at the data below, one could see that some sort of storminess should be impacting the region as the precipitation analogs and CPC outlook suggest moisture availability in the region.

 

Deterministic Precipitation                                          GEFS Raw Ensemble Mean

deterministic_168to336hrs_2018112500.thumb.png.341fa9933e055ee7d18c8c6c3ff50ed2.pngensdiff_168to336hrs_2018112500.thumb.png.099d46e050c687b0377ea5d57777da9e.png

 

CPC 8-14 day Precipitation Outlook

1381485396_814prcp.new(1).thumb.gif.43ef24c1407b9292ba293cb377d5bd75.gif

 


 

Interesting EPS Control MSLP runs:

 

There have been many different runs over the last few days that hint at the possibility of a storm around this time frame, give or take a day or two. Please, we can see some of the most interesting ones.

12Z Nov 23, 2018                                                            00Z Nov 24, 2018                                                              12z Nov 24, 2018

Webp.net-gifmaker.gif.fde9a07290e13c2179d8a9f026041af0.gif1169805807_Webp.net-gifmaker(2).gif.cbd34f04f1a3e6b21dfbbefd0991b2b9.gif82503988_Webp.net-gifmaker(1).gif.ec7b35ab352c2c1b49099095805cadbf.gif

 

12Z Nov 24, 2018                                                         12Z Nov 25, 2018

334956922_Webp.net-gifmaker(3).gif.2a9fd3c30fd961d109bb9d01a9e87960.gif1210103271_Webp.net-gifmaker(4).gif.f30d9ea6f93af99a5be054b935612dc4.gif

 

 

As we know, nothing is etched in stone when it comes to the weather and the atmosphere. However, that is exactly what drives us to keep the faith that nice storms will come and go to satisfy our needs for excitement, snow and rain to replenish the reservoirs and simply to allow us to continue enjoying our favorite hobby or even profession.

So, let the DISCO begin, and who knows we may be able to answer the question; Wintry Weather Returns?

Have fun tracking and learning!

 

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Bro, you put a lot of good effort into this, good job man. 

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12Z GFS:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh210-264.thumb.gif.170ac21e158fcf0f57c15bbe960f422b.gif

 

This should get things going.

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Now that is a thread opener! Excellent intro. Hopefully the effort isn't wasted on a GLC The_Wish_Casting_Monkey

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tfv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png

FV3-GFS gives the region  another warm and rainy event, so we need to continue to monitor multiple models.  And it has become my recent experience to see the FV3 as a forerunner to what the regular GFS will say during the next run.  As far as winter precipitation is concerned this updated model indicates winter out to sea for New England but may barrel and impact for the New Scotland region with heavy snow on the 9th.  However we need to take note on how the weeklies are backing off from the cold in the 2nd half of December showing mild to warm conditions through Christmas all the way up to January 5.  It's still too far out and there are many probabilities that may change, hoping that the assessment of a possible non winter as indicated by Judah Cohan for the east coast  as a small probability not pan out.

Edited by John Locke
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I guess not many people noticed the 00Z ECMWF run.

1050329697_Webp.net-gifmaker(1).gif.b26776c5e2f86bb462fb782992f3542a.gif

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58 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

I guess not many people noticed the 00Z ECMWF run.

1050329697_Webp.net-gifmaker(1).gif.b26776c5e2f86bb462fb782992f3542a.gif

Yeah - I dismissed it based on the version I saw with the 540 line where it is.  Precip type version you present is more intriguing. 

 

Loading Maps...

 

850 and 925 temps are good for many. Keep in mind the precip maps are past 3 hrs and the 850 line is moving SE

Loading Maps...Loading Maps...

Surface is marginal for many.

Loading Maps...

 

 

 

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46 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Yeah - I dismissed it based on the version I saw with the 540 line where it is.  Precip type version you present is more intriguing. 

 

Loading Maps...

 

850 and 925 temps are good for many. Keep in mind the precip maps are past 3 hrs and the 850 line is moving SE

Loading Maps...Loading Maps...

Surface is marginal for many.

Loading Maps...

 

 

 

 

Alright.

Thanks for contributing with more info.

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4 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

12Z GFS:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh210-264.thumb.gif.170ac21e158fcf0f57c15bbe960f422b.gif

 

This should get things going.

Yes - this grabs attention. All but coastal areas are under 0c at 850.  

graphic.aspx?mt=12&hr=240&gs=mslp_tmp_pcp_wdb&mod=gfs&map=usne&gv0=C&mv4=850&mv8=scheme:white,county:55&lev=&UID=mslp850tmppcp10wind_whitecounty&cap=

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6 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

 

Alright.

Thanks for contributing with more info.

Sorry, I'm slow today

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26 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Yes - this grabs attention. All but coastal areas are under 0c at 850.  

graphic.aspx?mt=12&hr=240&gs=mslp_tmp_pcp_wdb&mod=gfs&map=usne&gv0=C&mv4=850&mv8=scheme:white,county:55&lev=&UID=mslp850tmppcp10wind_whitecounty&cap=

Yes, it does.

And that encourages discussion. :classic_biggrin:

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26 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Sorry, I'm slow today

We all have our slow days.

It´s cool.

 

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2 hours ago, John Locke said:

 we need to take note on how the weeklies are backing off from the cold in the 2nd half of December showing mild to warm conditions through Christmas all the way up to January 5

Ugh. I’ll just keep thinking SNOW ❄️☃️

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12Z EPS:

Very intriguing.

1665476157_Webp.net-gifmaker(2).gif.9d92b86bd029902db63d5c51afe13327.gif434870057_Webp.net-gifmaker(3).gif.d119d5600c692de6a753e2d039fc24b8.gif

 

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Lots of nice hits on the GEFS 

EB5CD9EF-0758-478B-9C30-9E825022DADD.png

E5A89179-F52D-45A6-BA0A-ECCEAB664C95.png

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30 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Lots of nice hits on the GEFS 

EB5CD9EF-0758-478B-9C30-9E825022DADD.png

E5A89179-F52D-45A6-BA0A-ECCEAB664C95.png

Could we have e12, I think that'd make literally everybody happy.  But that's how we know it won't happen, lol!

 

Going to stay very skeptical at this point.

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27/0z FV3 is an absolute bomb for northern New England.

fv3p_z500_vort_eus_35.thumb.png.dd861f1bea2178bdd2c6e1a61494038d.png

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06Z FV3 GFS:

By the time it reaches Maine, it is angry and gets mean to @MaineJay .

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh180-210.gif

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Meanwhile, the EPS continues to be pretty impressive for this far out.

00Z EPS:

456052338_Webp.net-gifmaker(5).gif.ce9a586a42f363046e92553aceb2e963.gif

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Cfs been consistently showing a track similar to this  

12F9C880-8577-4A3B-A005-49DFA2340174.png

5F39DD69-35A3-4BF0-A78C-F0CC3E010C88.png

0ACA374B-CFAE-4FBA-A145-C3EA16743766.png

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This could be @PA road DAWG storm, looks like a classic NE PA crusher in the higher elevations. Usually with that setup the rain / snow line sets up around the Delaware River in NNJ, us guys in Sussex Co also need to pay attention to the, especially if you live in elevations greater than 850ft.

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The closest images I could find for a storm

EPS Mean 12/5

Spoiler

us_ecmwf_mean_prec06_f192.png?

Euro 

Spoiler

graphic.aspx?mod=ecmwfued&mt=00&hr=192&map=usmercator&gv0=C&mv5=6&mv0=&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv8=scheme:whiteknocke,hilo,county:55&uid=mslpthkpcpk6_whitecounty

6zGFS

Spoiler

graphic.aspx?mt=06&mod=gfs&hr=192&map=usmercator&gv0=C&mv0=&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv8=scheme:whiteknocke,ptype,hilo,county:55&uid=mslpthkpcptypek2_whitecounty

6z fv3

Spoiler

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

 

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1 hour ago, KENNYP2339 said:

This could be @PA road DAWG storm, looks like a classic NE PA crusher in the higher elevations. Usually with that setup the rain / snow line sets up around the Delaware River in NNJ, us guys in Sussex Co also need to pay attention to the, especially if you live in elevations greater than 850ft.

 

The classic NEPA crusher was the March 2017 blizzard.  I’ll never forget that storm.  

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