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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

December 5, 2018 | Light Snow Disturbance

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3 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Cfs been consistently showing a track similar to this  

12F9C880-8577-4A3B-A005-49DFA2340174.png

5F39DD69-35A3-4BF0-A78C-F0CC3E010C88.png

0ACA374B-CFAE-4FBA-A145-C3EA16743766.png

Do you really expect this to hold for 2 weeks?...   I wouldn't want to be in the bullseye this far out as it has a greater chance of not planning out.

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24 minutes ago, Goalie24 said:

Do you really expect this to hold for 2 weeks?...   I wouldn't want to be in the bullseye this far out as it has a greater chance of not planning out.

Just some food for thought 

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12z FV3 is a hit. GFS is a GLC and CMC is drunk with nothing.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

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Until this is figured out starting in the Plains/MW, it's gonna be a crap shoot here on what to expect.

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I'm looking for modeling changes coming ~12z 29NOV18 due to the ULL hitting Northern CA at that time, then another ULL hits PNW ~12z 01DEC18.

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52 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

Until this is figured out starting in the Plains/MW, it's gonna be a crap shoot here on what to expect.

Agreed.  The differences from run to run on the OG GFs is laughable.  

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2 hours ago, Goalie24 said:

Do you really expect this to hold for 2 weeks?...   I wouldn't want to be in the bullseye this far out as it has a greater chance of not planning out.

I want to be in the bullseye as often as possible :i-ve-got-it:.... Today, tomorrow, yesterday! 

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FV3 vs. Operational.   As posted in the Met 101 page, FV3 model briefing, the FV3 has been coming in too progressive.

A look at hr 138, each has the ULL over Utah.  FV3 is flatter out front, GFS more amped in front.   Fv3 is much faster with the energy over IN/OH and Ontario. Behind, FV3 more agressive with ULL hitting PACNW, while GFS just has some some enhanced flow at 500mb.  

Spoiler

2078303657_11-2712zgfshr138.PNG.e09ea78100d814096a13cfc54ad72647.PNG

337118419_11-2712zfv3hr138.PNG.68aea1fbbf2c9010e2094e75aca9d565.PNG

Then at hr 168, FV3 looks a little strung out in front, GFS is keeps more of the energy and has a deeper ULL.  Result is more ridging in front.  Behind the GFS has a shortwave over OR, FV3 has two further east.  

Spoiler

992027649_11-2712zgfshr168.png.99016669d56ad79bbc16529825d524d4.png

370557911_11-2712zfv3hr168.png.ce2f78fd5754750cd3eb3c2b3da4d471.png

Which leads to hr180, where that difference in ULL strength and ridging leads to the SLP and ULL to head through the lakes on the GFS, but continue east for the FV3 and remain an open wave.  Both will form a secondary, but the GFS is later and further north in the Gulf of Maine, while the FV3 pops it around Delmarva.

 

Spoiler

396646001_11-2712zgfshr180.png.051804b6130ca08fcb97b4517e580b4d.png

566048584_11-2712zfv3hr180.png.08567aadd13350adc80c6b8f7511983b.png

 

Edited by StretchCT
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We'll see @StretchCT , the confluence over NE is stronger on the FV3 thanks in part to a strong unicorn in place downstream. GFS has that as a weaker system. That is a key player in this scenario...imho...

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Euro 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png

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Euro not showing a 12/5 storm.  

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14 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Euro not showing a 12/5 storm.  

I'm not concerned at this point at all. How many times is it when a storm appears out of nowhere when were only three or four days out. This is over a week almost two weeks out. We're fine LOL

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9 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm not concerned at this point at all. How many times is it when a storm appears out of nowhere when were only three or four days out. This is over a week almost two weeks out. We're fine LOL

Wasn't this on the OFM almost 2 weeks ago? 

IMG_20181116_112919.jpg

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32 minutes ago, Lazman said:

Wasn't this on the OFM almost 2 weeks ago? 

IMG_20181116_112919.jpg

If it was, I missed it

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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

Euro not showing a 12/5 storm.  

looks like a weak surface reflection south of Mt Desert Isle, and east of Delmarva...rounding the base of that southern s/w. Northern energy stays out of line with it...

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3 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Euro not showing a 12/5 storm.  

The storm is there. Beginning:

Webp.net-gifmaker.gif.cd34fe66dddec4673e66b09b22035dd3.gif

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10 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

The storm is there. Beginning:

Webp.net-gifmaker.gif.cd34fe66dddec4673e66b09b22035dd3.gif

Wrong storm

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10 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

The storm is there. Beginning:

Webp.net-gifmaker.gif.cd34fe66dddec4673e66b09b22035dd3.gif

I think that is technically the 12/8-9 system. The one after the 12/5 that’s currently being shown on fv3 gfs

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7 hours ago, Goalie24 said:

Do you really expect this to hold for 2 weeks?...   I wouldn't want to be in the bullseye this far out as it has a greater chance of not planning out.

Yes.

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18Z FV3 GFS:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh156-192.gif.074726e9f8e565c9b0437f971a49d529.gif

18Z GFS:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh150-192.gif.21093eb57a4b2e137593e549380394b7.gif

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38 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

Wrong storm

 

38 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

I think that is technically the 12/8-9 system. The one after the 12/5 that’s currently being shown on fv3 gfs

 

You guys are correct.

The storm develops far offshore.

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1 hour ago, Phased Vort said:

 

 

You guys are correct.

The storm develops far offshore.

EPS MSLP Control:

Offshore as well.

900339901_Webp.net-gifmaker(1).gif.84dda944f118cccf27e63c0f3fc39cd1.gif

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00Z GFS is making lots of noise...  Powder noise...orig.gif.b0dd6747a4730cc6f3626314d11a2957.gif

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh162-198.thumb.gif.4ea7135887cea62454cf11eac514febb.gif

 

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The drunk Uncle keeps it offshore. Lets see what the FV3-GFS does

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh174-186.gif.03a887a905419dbed9b55aa2a8c81b05.gif

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37 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

00Z GFS is making lots of noise...  Powder noise...orig.gif.b0dd6747a4730cc6f3626314d11a2957.gif

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh162-198.thumb.gif.4ea7135887cea62454cf11eac514febb.gif

 

That solution looks great for mby, I'm looking forward to checking out the ensembles and the euro in the morning.

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