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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

December 5, 2018 | Light Snow Disturbance

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The 00Z FV3-GFS does bring the storm in, However more of a mix. Still a week out, so many changes to come.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh150-186.gif.b23a6dd740f98f13781645e46419927d.gif

Edited by Wx_WhatWX?

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I am happy to see that there is a chance that I might see snow during early December!

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06Z GFS

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh144-186.gif.0648dc6a30c6116ffecec9bc47917ac5.gif

 

06Z FV3 GFS:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh156-192.gif.021e3a06cec0b5aa50c5317b0f2fe1ce.gif

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00Z ECMWF: A bit closer compared to the 12Z run, but still not close enough to impact the region much.

1939817954_Webp.net-gifmaker(2).gif.2fc68a99785b44734d261545b40fb464.gif

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Shiiiiiiiitttttttt.  Gotta love the poconos baby 

857F6D26-3326-41B4-9453-BEF5ADF77A41.jpeg

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The large majority of GEFS ensemble members has some sort of accumulating upslope event for the west side of the Appalachians. The stronger solutions even suggest a little event for the Mid-Atlantic before it scoots out to sea. 

11-28 00z GEFS members h180.gif

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What's that...FV3 isn't flinching? Hmm...seems like I just got finished telling a similar tale.:classic_ninja:

Yeah, i know...it's never good to hug any model...especially an American one...but the FV3 dice are hot and I'm rolling again:chicken_dance-176:

Edited by telejunkie
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Looks like this can be a 3-6er over the Mason Dixon "IF" all goes well. Given that GFS has a warm bias I would expect a more wintery solution going forward, would be a quick hit but can pack a punch to start December, however, the 8th-10th period seems like some big potential.

Edited by shaulov4
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CMC getting on board

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh168-186.gif.875e39676e7be55f2b2eb512f1e3e536.gif

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The 00z GEFS and EPS means suggest the scenario I feel will be most beneficial to NE folks this winter will occur during this time frame. The big picture is a potent GLC occurs Dec 1-3 and another potent storm system hot on the GLC's heels rides up the pre-existing cold front/baroclinic zone. Images below clearly show the ~1000 mb GLC up north and the next storm system entering the southern plains/western Gulf. The southern plains system has no choice but to track northeast and based on this synoptic scale pattern A) Gulf/subtropical moisture won't be lacking and B) a chilly air mass will be in place to the north. 

Spoiler

 

11-28 00z GEFS MSLP h120.png

11-28 00z EPS MSLP h120.png

 

 

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie
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Guys...I have a bad feeling about this one. I'm not scheduled to work...these things always hit when I'm working. 

The TDAT-CAR index says no :(

 

:classic_laugh:

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7 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

The 00z GEFS and EPS means suggest the scenario I feel will be most beneficial to NE folks this winter will occur during this time frame. The big picture is a potent GLC occurs Dec 1-3 and another potent storm system hot on the GLC's heels rides up the pre-existing cold front/baroclinic zone. Images below clearly show the ~1000 mb GLC up north and the next storm system entering the southern plains/western Gulf. The southern plains system has no choice but to track northeast and based on this synoptic scale pattern A) Gulf/subtropical moisture won't be lacking and B) a chilly air mass will be in place to the north. 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

11-28 00z GEFS MSLP h120.png

11-28 00z EPS MSLP h120.png

 

 

I feel it's also worth mentioning the fact that I expect snow cover on the plains to be extensive after this weekend's GLC, which will be important for assess the amplitude and track of this system. In general, more snow cover -> farther south storm track and vice versa. Along those lines, current observations and projected snow depth are quite different on the plains. Food for thought ...

11-28 6z NOHRSC analysis.jpg

11-28 12z GEFS snowcover h108.png

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3 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Shiiiiiiiitttttttt.  Gotta love the poconos baby 

857F6D26-3326-41B4-9453-BEF5ADF77A41.jpeg

"Hey its snowing. Better speed up and throw caution to the wind."

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11 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

12Z GFS:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh138-174.thumb.gif.a412261e9c95d5f7d9bfe711242a98c5.gif

I'm not buying it, GFS is not phasing properly we've seen this before. 

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12Z FV3 GFS, looks similar to the 00Z ECMWF as far as offshore development is concerned.

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5 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Shiiiiiiiitttttttt.  Gotta love the poconos baby 

857F6D26-3326-41B4-9453-BEF5ADF77A41.jpeg

That's one helluva video camera for your vehicle. ...is it for work or something?

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12Z ECMWF continues its tune from the 12Z yesterday and 00Z today.

Storm very progressive, and hence tracks far enough offshore to not impact the region much.

If a bit of adjustment were to occur to the NW, this run would have been pretty cool to see on the model.

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1 hour ago, Noble said:

That's one helluva video camera for your vehicle. ...is it for work or something?

POPO 5-0

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1 hour ago, Noble said:

That's one helluva video camera for your vehicle. ...is it for work or something?

state trooper.  stay on his good side and do not ridicule him when snow storms bypass or he get the obligatory 2"  :police-smiley-emoticon:

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12Z EPS is pretty decent.

Webp.net-gifmaker.gif.2c3831c244a69b289c167804595a6c9d.gif

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EPSGEFS, and GEPS are setting the stage for potent storm in this time period. EPS appears to be the middle-of-the road solution with the GEFS more progressive and the GEPS more amplified. I annotated the approximately cold front/baroclinic zone on each image:

Spoiler

 

1685234486_11-2812zEPSMSLPh120.png.a8f696d858c500fe3d612fe61d71eb79.png

1591301577_11-2812zGEFSMSLPh120.png.34037fe33cf00978dab167132f3629cb.png

1486232797_11-2812zGEPSMSLPh120.png.e8ba0f85e9b48f35e3db658f04c7e114.png

 

 

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4 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

12Z FV3 GFS, looks similar to the 00Z ECMWF as far as offshore development is concerned.

FV3...you're dead to me...:negative:

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