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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

Phased Vort

December 5, 2018 | Light Snow Disturbance

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58 minutes ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

EPSGEFS, and GEPS are setting the stage for potent storm in this time period. EPS appears to be the middle-of-the road solution with the GEFS more progressive and the GEPS more amplified. I annotated the approximately cold front/baroclinic zone on each image:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

1685234486_11-2812zEPSMSLPh120.png.a8f696d858c500fe3d612fe61d71eb79.png

1591301577_11-2812zGEFSMSLPh120.png.34037fe33cf00978dab167132f3629cb.png

1486232797_11-2812zGEPSMSLPh120.png.e8ba0f85e9b48f35e3db658f04c7e114.png

 

 

Good post here! 

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image.png.c9c51e2dcd059cef5a26862c99687a7f.png

The quicker this second low takes over the colder the solution.

Edited by shaulov4

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I like the look on the guidance right now, the ensembles are the way to lean at this moment, but within 4 days the operational models become more important.

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It's looking good for New England and most of Upstate NY, as usual. For those of us who are in PA, NJ, and NYC, still certainly possible and plenty of time for the models to change.

 

Edited by bradjl2009
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5 hours ago, Miller A said:

state trooper.  stay on his good side and do not ridicule him when snow storms bypass or he get the obligatory 2"  :police-smiley-emoticon:

*whispers* METER MAID

 

(All in good fun PARD, inter-service rivalry and all that)

Edited by TheDayAfterTommorow
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Still watching from the sidelines on this.  Here’s the NAVGEM which is encouraging?

FE17093C-7AF2-4459-9D81-0B75F09989B5.thumb.png.f63c4576b8299d1912d3290b947c3409.png

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00Z GFS looks way more like the Euro with the main precip field looking like it stays well to the south and eat with a brief period of light snow possible in southern PA. Honestly if it won't be mainly snow I'd rather get nothing because we've had an insane amount of precip this year.

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It's a nothing burger on the 12Z

:gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

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00Z FV3 GFS, not posted:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh132-162.gif.643b7030e3b6c0f8b7520bb5acf8598d.gif

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time for mid-atlantic and maybe even coastal plain to see some action? certainly isn't a good looking trough though...seemingly a hot mess of s/w's

Drunk uncle seems to be the only one left showing a decent-sized storm in this time frame...

Edited by telejunkie

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Nothing much doing on 12z GFS again. :/

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_24.thumb.png.7445181c7fb1a001a9deb2e463159d52.png

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3 hours ago, telejunkie said:

time for mid-atlantic and maybe even coastal plain to see some action? certainly isn't a good looking trough though...seemingly a hot mess of s/w's

Drunk uncle seems to be the only one left showing a decent-sized storm in this time frame...

I had the same thought this morning when I saw the 00z Euro. So much red!!! Deep reds and pinks are respectable 500 mb height tendencies that often result in at least moderate precipitation rates ... I wouldn't be surprised to see the 12z Euro showing something quite different from other 12z guidance.

11-29 00z Euro h144.gif

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12Z ECMWF still offshore. 

In case there´s a bit of a NW adjustment, this could be a pretty decent I-95 storm.

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18 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

12Z ECMWF still offshore. 

In case there´s a bit of a NW adjustment, this could be a pretty decent I-95 storm.

A couple GEFS members have something going on in this time frame and the greatest MSLP spread is west of the ensemble mean. Still seems premature to write this sucker off. 

10412362_11-2912zGEFSMSLPh138.png.2ba7cad91f7c8a6a8951d53c823452b2.png

1612956291_11-2912zGEFSmember1h132.gif.94ecf94563fe359f6db5ac42eb03577f.gif141839656_11-2912zGEFSmember2h132.gif.cd4ad09a5f36cf3a0c8b7f928b79bf4d.gif

 

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Until it´s within 3 days out 

1 minute ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

A couple GEFS members have something going on in this time frame and the greatest MSLP spread is west of the ensemble mean. Still seems premature to write this sucker off. 

10412362_11-2912zGEFSMSLPh138.png.2ba7cad91f7c8a6a8951d53c823452b2.png

1612956291_11-2912zGEFSmember1h132.gif.94ecf94563fe359f6db5ac42eb03577f.gif141839656_11-2912zGEFSmember2h132.gif.cd4ad09a5f36cf3a0c8b7f928b79bf4d.gif

 

Until it´s 3 days out, it needs to be watched.

A bit of an adjustment, and something eventful may come to fruition

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44 minutes ago, PA Snow 84 said:

201vhf.jpg.b2b626c5bba4937e0f8eb6fed150fbfc.jpg

lol that's how I truly feel right now, this has surprise written all over it...

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Center of low pressure position for 0z 12/6, based off the 12z runs. Background credit to TropicalTidbits.com, cut out the exterior to prevent confusion regarding the map.

1797634331_Screenshot2018-11-29at5_06_45PM.png.c168aa100699d579ac2d3a34153593d7.png

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I'll take the ClapperTracker for $500, Alex.

58 minutes ago, Solstice said:

Center of low pressure position for 0z 12/6, based off the 12z runs. Background credit to TropicalTidbits.com, cut out the exterior to prevent confusion regarding the map.

1797634331_Screenshot2018-11-29at5_06_45PM.png.c168aa100699d579ac2d3a34153593d7.png

 

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