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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

jdrenken

November 30th - December 2nd, 2018 | Winter Storm

Staff Recommended Posts

I'm really skeptical of the thread title, because of the snow pack currently in place after last weekend's heavy snowfall. Even though this is not a particularly cold storm, I think it will have enough cold air to work with to dump some really heavy wet snow in more or less the same places that got snow last weekend. 12z NAM supports this idea:

11-28 12z NAM h84 snowfall.png

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2 hours ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

I'm really skeptical of the thread title, because of the snow pack currently in place after last weekend's heavy snowfall. Even though this is not a particularly cold storm, I think it will have enough cold air to work with to dump some really heavy wet snow in more or less the same places that got snow last weekend. 12z NAM supports this idea:

11-28 12z NAM h84 snowfall.png

The thread title reflected what was happening on the modeling at the time. As I've stated on multiple occasions, when it becomes clear that a title needs to be changed it will be. When creating a thread, one cannot post a title to what they want..."just because".

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The 12z 3km NAM shows a ~70 knot easterly low level jet ... Now that's something you don't see every day! No doubt there will be impressive snowfall rates (>1"/hr) on the nose of that LLJ

11-30 12z 3kNAM 850LLJ h30.png

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...Major winter storm to impact the Great Plains this weekend...

noaad2.gif

Quote

A very active and wet pattern is anticipated this weekend over a large
portion of the nation as a series of storm systems crossing the Western
U.S. advance downstream across the Plains, Midwest and gradually toward
the Eastern Seaboard.

The concern for tonight and Saturday will be severe weather and heavy
rainfall which is expected to impact areas of the southern Plains, lower
Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states as deepening low pressure near
the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles ejects off to the east overnight and
then toward the Midwest on Saturday. The low center and supporting upper
trough aloft will interact with an increasingly moist and unstable airmass
pooling north from the Gulf of Mexico and along a quasi-stationary front
draped across the Ohio Valley southwestward to the lower Mississippi
Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop along and south
of this front overnight, and conditions are expected to be conducive for
severe weather and locally heavy rainfall amounts. In fact, the Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms
for the Arklatex region including adjacent areas of the southern Plains
and lower Mississippi Valley for tonight. The hazards will tornadoes,
damaging winds and large hail. On Saturday, the heavy rainfall and severe
weather threat will shift east to include the remainder of the central and
eastern Gulf Coast states as a cold front gradually approaches from the
west.

Farther north, around the northwest side of the same low pressure center
causing the heavy rain and severe weather concerns, will be a major winter
storm which is expected to hit areas of the Great Plains on Saturday
including a large area of the northern and central Plains. Heavy snow and
strong winds are expected across these areas, and especially over southern
South Dakota and north-central Nebraska where snowfall totals of as much
as 12 to 18 inches are expected. A period of sleet and freezing rain is
expected locally as well before a changeover to all snow occurs. Thus, the
combination of heavy snow and ice will result in hazardous travel
conditions. By Sunday, the snow will begin to advance northeast across
areas of the upper Midwest and the upper Great Lakes. Numerous winter
storm warnings, watches and advisories are in effect across these areas in
anticipation of this next major winter storm. Some snow and even areas of
sleet and freezing rain will also be possible across the far northern and
interior sections of the Northeast as moisture ahead of this system
arrives on Sunday with a marginally cold airmass for winter weather. Rain
and some thunderstorms will be expected farther south along the Eastern
Seaboard by Sunday as a cold front arrives from the west and with much
warmer temperatures in place as well.

 

Bunch of Winter Storm Warnings for Northern areas of the region up to 18+ inches of snow possible with ZR on top as well in many locations. A real mess this weekend upper Plains and Midwest.

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
324 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042-010600-
/O.CON.KOAX.WS.W.0008.181201T0600Z-181203T0000Z/
Knox-Cedar-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-Stanton-Platte-
Including the cities of Creighton, Bloomfield, Crofton, Wausa,
Verdigre, Niobrara, Hartington, Laurel, Randolph, Coleridge,
Neligh, Elgin, Pierce, Plainview, Osmond, Wayne, Albion,
St. Edward, Norfolk, Stanton, and Columbus
324 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Rain or a wintry mix changing to heavy snow Saturday
  morning. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Nebraska.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
210 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

NEZ005>010-025>029-037-038-011200-
/O.CON.KLBF.WS.W.0007.181201T0000Z-181203T0000Z/
Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-
Garfield-Wheeler-Logan-Custer-
Including the cities of Valentine, Springview, Spencer, Butte,
Lynch, Ainsworth, Bassett, Rose, Oneill, Atkinson, Thedford,
Halsey, Dunning, Purdum, Brewster, Taylor, Burwell, Bartlett,
Ericson, Stapleton, and Broken Bow
210 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018 /110 PM MST Fri Nov 30 2018/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 16
  inches expected. Mixed precipitation tonight with ice
  accumulations up to one tenth of an inch expected. Winds gusting
  as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central and west central
  Nebraska.

* WHEN...From 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to 6 PM CST /5 PM
  MST/ Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

Call Nebraska 511 for the latest road information.

&&

$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
210 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

NEZ004-023-024-035-036-057>059-094-011200-
/O.CON.KLBF.WS.W.0007.181201T0000Z-181203T0000Z/
Sheridan-Grant-Hooker-Arthur-McPherson-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-
Western Cherry-
Including the cities of Gordon, Rushville, Hyannis, Mullen,
Arthur, Tryon, Ringgold, Ogallala, Paxton, Grant, North Platte,
Cody, Eli, Merriman, and Kilgore
210 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018 /110 PM MST Fri Nov 30 2018/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 14
  inches expected, highest amounts across the Sandhills. Mixed
  precipitation tonight with ice accumulations up to one tenth of
  an inch expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, panhandle, southwest and
  west central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to 6 PM CST /5 PM
  MST/ Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

Call Nebraska 511 for the latest road information.

&&

$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
140 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BORDERS THE WINTER STORM WARNING...

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-010600-
/O.CON.KGID.WS.W.0004.181201T0300Z-181203T0000Z/
Valley-Greeley-Nance-Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-
Hall-Hamilton-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-
Including the cities of Ord, Greeley, Spalding, Scotia, Wolbach,
Fullerton, Genoa, Loup City, Sherman Reservoir, Litchfield,
St. Libory, Central City, Stromsburg, Osceola, Shelby, Polk,
Lexington, Cozad, Willow Island, Gothenburg, Kearney,
Grand Island, Aurora, Elwood, Johnson Lake, Holdrege, Minden,
and Hastings
140 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of a light
  glaze possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and south central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

 

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Looks like I'll be just north of this one as of now.  I'm just a couple miles south of the county line under the 0" for Aberdeen:

 

image.png.2a33d691a3513b761d59cc854483bce7.png

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