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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

shaulov4

December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

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I'll give the excitement level for this period a 7 and your thread opening a 3 :classic_tongue: (PV and Poc are a tough act to follow and set the bar high lol)

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Just now, PA Snow 84 said:

I'll give the excitement level for this period a 7 and your thread opening a 3 :classic_tongue: (PV and Poc are a tough act to follow and set the bar high lol)

Hey I'll take what i can get 😂, although I like my chances with a period of warmth after this period and an expected good placement with ridge back out west. I've won a few in my days so let's see my friend..btw there is BSR support for this.

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The overall setup for this time frame seems to be pretty good, even though it´s pretty far out.

There seems to be a well placed strong high pressure over SE Canada a bit north of NY state, cold air in place from the Dec 5th storm, and a potentially powerful southern jet along with a robust low-pressure system able to lift tons of subtropical GOMEX moisture.

However, the issue I have been seeing with this time frame from my observations from the last 4 to 3 days, is a pretty good possibility of suppression occurring given that the high pressure to the north may be pretty powerful and keep the cold column so thick that the storm would obviously track farther south right along the greatest temperature differential gradient, where the cold / warm air line would set up.

 

 

 

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I believe that this correctly portrays the thought of members here...

 

giphy.gif

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5 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

I believe that this correctly portrays the thought of members here...

 

[gif]

I feel attacked

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23 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

I feel attacked

Whats wrong with sitting at home and getting the phone call for overtime?

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31 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

However, the issue I have been seeing with this time frame from my observations from the last 4 to 3 days, is a pretty good possibility of suppression occurring given that the high pressure to the north may be pretty powerful and keep the cold column so thick that the storm would obviously track farther south right along the greatest temperature differential gradient, where the cold / warm air line would set up.

I'm getting the ole chicken bones out and going to go on the notion that snow follows snow, that should keep the storm from being to far south.

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Looking better so far over 6z. Stronger low to the north and the high is further east. Would assume this would equal a better pull/turn north from here?

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

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1 minute ago, KENNYP2339 said:

I'm getting the ole chicken bones out and going to go on the notion that snow follows snow, that should keep the storm from being to far south.

There´s that logic as well.

It´s so far out still that, things will obviously change. Still, I think there´s a chance that this could be a DC to northern North Carolina storm. But right now, the way things look, the chances for a farther north winter storm are pretty good.

Just stating the suppression possibility, so 6 to 7 days from now, we are not all surprised if that happens.

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Not much time to chime in with cool analysis, but FWIW, I've "liked" this time pd for a couple days now and was waiting on some (other than Carlos - LOL) who would do the honors. Good to see someone accept that "challenge". 

I'll add more later - but, again, this is the time period I have the most interest in (based on some OFM signals and some climo factored in)

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10 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Not much time to chime in with cool analysis, but FWIW, I've "liked" this time pd for a couple days now and was waiting on some (other than Carlos - LOL) who would do the honors. Good to see someone accept that "challenge". 

I'll add more later - but, again, this is the time period I have the most interest in (based on some OFM signals and some climo factored in)

@shaulov4 did do the honors and accepted the challenge.

I really liked how he seemed to have been observing this time frame and felt confident enough to open a thread for a time frame so far in the future still when we know how some many things may go wrong and the final event turns out totally different from the one envisioned.

Now, I just encourage him to work a bit more on his thread openers by adding more data relevant to a storm to be discussed and add some text concerning what he interprets from the data used to open the thread. 

I´m sure as his confidence grows, so will the strength of the openers.

 

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1 minute ago, Phased Vort said:

@shaulov4 did do the honors and accepted the challenge.

I really liked how he seemed to have been observing this time frame and felt confident enough to open a thread for a time frame so far in the future still when we know how some many things may go wrong and the final event turns out totally different from the one envisioned.

Now, I just encourage him to work a bit more on his thread openers by adding more data relevant to a storm to be discussed and add some text concerning what he interprets from the data used to open the thread. 

I´m sure as his confidence grows, so will the strength of the openers.

 

My apologies for the lack of data. I appreciate the acknowledgement and yes I'd say it was risky challenging the greats but when learning from them all these years am I really challenging them or supporting there methods 😉

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11 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

My apologies for the lack of data. I appreciate the acknowledgement and yes I'd say it was risky challenging the greats but when learning from them all these years am I really challenging them or supporting there methods 😉

Greatness comes from how we face the challenges and with which spirit we go into those challenges. Hence, with this thread, you have shown the spirit of a great, and a  friendly and supportive poster and member by supporting the forum´s methods.

Keep it up!

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12Z ECMWF should be coming in pretty aggressive for this time frame the way the run is looking so far.

Still waiting to see if it will make the turn NNE or NE, or if it will be the possible suppression solution like the 12Z FV3 GFS.

Unfortunately, the last frame should keep the storm over the SE US and Tennessee.

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Last two frames from the 12Z EMCWF:

1624928159_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesMidAtlanticPrecipTypeMSLP234.thumb.png.1146ffc73d02cd818fef63cb51671f86.png1853364310_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesMidAtlanticPrecipTypeMSLP240.thumb.png.f550109d11ce271242c4b18527b9bfd0.png

 

As long as the ECMWF displays something like this for at least 50% of its runs, then there´s a pretty good chance this may indeed turn out to be real storm, for those looking for snow.

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Ok lets take a look at the FV3 

6z Indicates that ridging wants to take place however it seems like that system before keeps it more of a flat looking flow.

image.png.51d6c2564f0109a6409452defda6a934.png

Now compare the ridging to the 12z and you can see how the heights rise due to the time is given because of the late offshore development.

image.png.dddec859d41da38d70c5ba8a5ba49839.png

This implicates that this storm has room to grow and that a suppressed look is unlikely. My theory is that the less impressive the system before looks and is, the better this one will look.

Edited by shaulov4

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11 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Last two frames from the 12Z EMCWF:

1624928159_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesMidAtlanticPrecipTypeMSLP234.thumb.png.1146ffc73d02cd818fef63cb51671f86.png1853364310_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesMidAtlanticPrecipTypeMSLP240.thumb.png.f550109d11ce271242c4b18527b9bfd0.png

 

As long as the ECMWF displays something like this for at least 50% of its runs, then there´s a pretty good chance this may indeed turn out to be real storm, for those looking for snow.

I would gladly take that.

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image.thumb.png.828a50940384437139273dd7dcf6e775.png

Also something to note is that the NAO is projected to go positive during this time frame (Transition period)...

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11 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

I would gladly take that.

Hard pass for me. Sick of ice already it's not even December. 

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Not bad, considering the lead time

12z MREFs

I'm thinking we have some EAR influence here. At the very least, we have a moderately strong system causing similar effect to the TR/EAR, on or about 12/1 - setting up the western ridge and trough in east scenario downstream. 

I'm honestly not seeing the BSR support - there are some systems running around the east during that time frame (on the overlays) but H5 looks pretty abysmal as it relates to ridge/trough orientation. 

As for the climatology I mentioned in the prior post, this time period has seen many winter like storms in my neck of the woods (12/9 is bro's b-day and he would love it when it snowed or even slop mixed on his birthday - RIP Lil Bro :( ) We are typically descending into the time of year when cold has a much easier time to "lock" in - is harder to scour out. Sun angle results in very low influence of surface heat, making air modification more difficult. 

Gotta love the transitioning tele connection NAO. Would like to view the other important ones - PNA, AO before going further down this path. 

In short, we have OFM in part, being supported by ENS (in part) - and add a smattering of "history" and the blend seems favorable. I'm sure there could be more support (or non support) out there. And we will have to deal with whatever comes of 12/5 - setting the table "downstream".  Until/unless we see major changes in the overall synoptic potential, then I'll continue to "like" this one. 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Not bad, considering the lead time

12z MREFs

I'm thinking we have some EAR influence here. At the very least, we have a moderately strong system causing similar effect to the TR/EAR, on or about 12/1 - setting up the western ridge and trough in east scenario downstream. 

I'm honestly not seeing the BSR support - there are some systems running around the east during that time frame (on the overlays) but H5 looks pretty abysmal as it relates to ridge/trough orientation. 

As for the climatology I mentioned in the prior post, this time period has seen many winter like storms in my neck of the woods (12/9 is bro's b-day and he would love it when it snowed or even slop mixed on his birthday - RIP Lil Bro :( ) We are typically descending into the time of year when cold has a much easier time to "lock" in - is harder to scour out. Sun angle results in very low influence of surface heat, making air modification more difficult. 

Gotta love the transitioning tele connection NAO. Would like to view the other important ones - PNA, AO before going further down this path. 

In short, we have OFM in part, being supported by ENS (in part) - and add a smattering of "history" and the blend seems favorable. I'm sure there could be more support (or non support) out there. And we will have to deal with whatever comes of 12/5 - setting the table "downstream".  Until/unless we see major changes in the overall synoptic potential, then I'll continue to "like" this one. 

 

 

About that sun angle....it's akin to January 3rd. I'm not so sure snow can stick...gonna have be some pretty furious rates if you know what I mean! :rain-2:      

Getting serious for a second, I like the storm possibilities especially with the tellies on the move and with the snow being laid down, the chances of snow further south and east are possible but admittedly you could tell me that this could be a FROPA or an apps runner, or a southern slider, etc... and I would not be shocked. Ok, FROPA would surprise me a bit with this one. What we have seen though in October and early November and what the overall pattern I think we see in later December and January looks like is more of a slide toward the coast with moisture continuing to be streamed with help from El Nino (spanish for "The Nino!). So if I'm laying a chip, I'd look at it to be further south and east from the last few storms and maybe too far south and east because as you mention, that ridge placement isn't looking too hot. All in all, it's something cool to track. 

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image.png.914cb03da0e0b75b41a3ef534c2a242d.png

Definitely an improvement, we got ways to go, a fresh injection of cold air is what you want with a storm of this magnitude...yes we have it.

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