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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

shaulov4

December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

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2 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

image.png.8eccb18f07fef28f413bf773344567f5.png\

We went from suppressed to tucked 😂😂 gotta love it. 

Yes it’s a gorgeous looking storm.  but I’m concerned that confluence is going to be a major issue. This screams January 2016 confluence to me. 

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23 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

+Yes it’s a gorgeous looking storm.  but I’m concerned that confluence is going to be a major issue. This screams January 2016 confluence to me. 

That´s my concern.

I do think there will be a storm and snow. Now, how far north that snow will get, is what I think may be the headline for this one. Confluence could be a major factor to determine how far north this one gets.

Even the 18Z coming a bit farther north, can´t make the storm keep going father north past southern NJ. Gets there and moves east and then is forced to reform farther NE away from the coast.

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27 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Yes it’s a gorgeous looking storm.  but I’m concerned that confluence is going to be a major issue. This screams January 2016 confluence to me. 

Taking this verbatim would be the last that I want 😂 I live in snow capital jersey and so this wouldn't do it. But given it is at hr258 and its the GFS or FV3 to be more specific and the GFS has a bias of sucking the moisture of most storms and usually doesnt have good handle on temps especially at tight gradients this storm would have, (takes a deep breath) I would just be happy its not consistently showing a suppressed solution, a step in the right direction ayy

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image.thumb.png.a31676f9320b28d195f0ea60baacd7de.png

What a storm that was, I will never forget it. But idk I think this has some wiggle room to move up north, say Boston as the max reach.

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8 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

That´s my concern.

I do think there will be a storm and snow. Now, how far north that snow will get, is what I think may be the headline for this one. Confluence could be a major factor to determine how far north this one gets.

Even the 18Z coming a bit farther north, can´t make the storm keep going father north past southern NJ. Gets there and moves east and then is forced to reform farther NE away from the coast.

 

7 hours ago, Phased Vort said:

The overall setup for this time frame seems to be pretty good, even though it´s pretty far out.

There seems to be a well placed strong high pressure over SE Canada a bit north of NY state, cold air in place from the Dec 5th storm, and a potentially powerful southern jet along with a robust low-pressure system able to lift tons of subtropical GOMEX moisture.

However, the issue I have been seeing with this time frame from my observations from the last 4 to 3 days, is a pretty good possibility of suppression occurring given that the high pressure to the north may be pretty powerful and keep the cold column so thick that the storm would obviously track farther south right along the greatest temperature differential gradient, where the cold / warm air line would set up.

 

 

 

Confluence and suppression are two completely different scenarios.

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20 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

image.thumb.png.a31676f9320b28d195f0ea60baacd7de.png

What a storm that was, I will never forget it. But idk I think this has some wiggle room to move up north, say Boston as the max reach.

Bruhhhhhh, and I live north of Scranton. I don’t think I Got a full inch.  that my friends is called confluence 

6683257D-D128-4FF1-8B09-E3F27D9BA2A1.jpeg

Edited by PA road DAWG
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1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said:

Bruhhhhhh, and I love north of Scranton   I don’t think I Got a full inch 

6683257D-D128-4FF1-8B09-E3F27D9BA2A1.jpeg

I remember 😂 I truly had sympathy for you that day.

 image.thumb.png.2aa0280eed6370077e02f60d1c9ec44b.png

In terms of initial low placement, FV3 and the Euro are not that far apart, obviously I can't show beyond h240 but from what I can see it has a flatter look than the fv3 and the storm would ride along the front exiting off Hatteras moving North East. Below New England would be in play. 

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26 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

I remember 😂 I truly had sympathy for you that day.

 image.thumb.png.2aa0280eed6370077e02f60d1c9ec44b.png

In terms of initial low placement, FV3 and the Euro are not that far apart, obviously I can't show beyond h240 but from what I can see it has a flatter look than the fv3 and the storm would ride along the front exiting off Hatteras moving North East. Below New England would be in play. 

Well thanks, luckily the March 2017 blizzard made up for it.  

But yes back to this storm, I love the look of these type of GOM originating storms because they seem to always pack a punch (at least for some region).   However, there’s only so far north this can go.  I mean look at this.....a low pressure center situated just off the coast near Atlantic City is literally a white (wet) dream for me.   That’s the ideal/dream location for people near my area.  But I know, let’s not get too caught up in that so early in the game.  

 A31DCAA7-F06A-4D0E-9C95-0A973045EBA1.png.b4433bc15ddec618c74e7ee16481324c.png

 

With that being said, it’s certainly a positive that almost all of the major models (euro, gfs, fv3 gfs) have converged on the idea of a similar type storm.  So we can check that off the list.  One thing I did notice (on the gfs) is that the H5’s have been trending more favorably.  A deeper trough with Higher heights out in front that would suggest a more northerly track.  I’m sure we all know that what means by now. The quicker we get the tilt the more potent of a system with precip being tossed back.  Lots of time to iron out the details but it’s certainly a nice looking system. 93947BF8-74C1-4474-BC02-669C5FBB7139.png.640606c319a6bf7212e08b83a8fdb118.png

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1 hour ago, jdrenken said:

 

Confluence and suppression are two completely different scenarios.

They are.

And confluence does not tend by itself to suppress storms. However, confluence usually is a sign of convergence, and convergence does act to suppress storms.

In simple terms, they are related as confluence suppresses cyclones because convergence at the higher levels, or aloft, acts to increase air density or mass in a column, which results in higher pressures. Higher pressures may be equated to blocking, which in turn prevents cyclones from following the natural flow they would take poleward, or gain latitude, in case there was no convergence.

Once confluence is observed, convergence may be present, and therefore higher pressures (blocking) can occur, and the stronger those are, the more suppresion may occur.

It´s not so straight forward like that, but put in a unembelished  way, I think the relationship serves well.

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20 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

They are.

And confluence does not tend by itself to suppress storms. However, confluence usually is a sign of convergence, and convergence does act to suppress storms.

In simple terms, they are related as confluence suppresses cyclones because convergence at the higher levels, or aloft, acts to increase air density or mass in a column, which results in higher pressures. Higher pressures may be equated to blocking, which in turn prevents cyclones from following the natural flow they would take poleward, or gain latitude, in case there was no convergence.

Once confluence is observed, convergence may be present, and therefore higher pressures (blocking) can occur, and the stronger those are, the more suppresion may occur.

It´s not so straight forward like that, but put in a unembelished  way, I think the relationship serves well.

It is straight forward when you state DC-NC as suppression and then turn around and are worried about confluence when it's trending North of your suppression call.

 

Again...two completely different situations.

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2 hours ago, shaulov4 said:

Oh boy would you look at that not suppressed......

image.png.45e24b3a8028753f218231a54ba6e91d.png

Ewww what is with the ridging/high pressure placement look so far this year. Be lucky you dont get flooded aloft with that type of setup. Best case scenario is it stays course at that latitude and throws moisture up any further north and all rain...

 

You get weak ridging that tries to take place south of Hudson bay but not enough to make a huge difference. Gotta lose that northern wave or it needs to phase better with the southern stream to allow better confluence up north.

2 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Yes it’s a gorgeous looking storm.  but I’m concerned that confluence is going to be a major issue. This screams January 2016 confluence to me. 

What a rager of a storm that was. Would love to have a one and done of that caliber this year and move on. 

Edited by so_whats_happening
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Annoyed my parents scooped me on this. Sent a post by weather trends and got me in here to look  

watching.  I like it more than the 5th, just for the fact that the 5th looks to bring in some cold temps and it’s reinforced on the 8th.  If you figure these are about right, then this follows that cold shot nicely.  We’ve broken cold spells with storms before.  As UTS noted, the tellie transition is good too.  I won’t get a good look until Friday though.  

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2 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Bruhhhhhh, and I live north of Scranton. I don’t think I Got a full inch.  that my friends is called confluence 

6683257D-D128-4FF1-8B09-E3F27D9BA2A1.jpeg

I know how brutal that was for you Dawg.

As much as I love ❄ and loved living thru that 31", I don't know if I want that again. That was the most intense snow I ever saw. I think at one point as I was plowing I was reporting to you guys like 4"+ per hour. That was insane, could barely see the front of the truck let alone the road. Crazy times. But the way it's been raining here for the last 6 months, huh!

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A better look at a now cutter and snow eater if you have any:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

Subsequently with the exception of week 2 all other weeks tend to show above to well above normal.  Looks as though the cold outlook has now been officially thrown out the door.  The chances of a mother nature being a scrooge towards Christmas when it comes to snow seems to a less then a 50 percent chance of a white Christmas.  So we are going to have to view how the pattern pans out.  Even the CFS  which showed cold and snow for the longest time has dominantly flipped the script towards a normal to mild winter bias with only March showing cold. 

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00Z ECMWF, has snow for the region, but the storm almost become a FROPA. It got very elongated.

1567273569_Webp.net-gifmaker(1).gif.429ba5c039543b90efd20655ecbb6546.gif

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9 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Bruhhhhhh, and I live north of Scranton. I don’t think I Got a full inch.  that my friends is called confluence 

6683257D-D128-4FF1-8B09-E3F27D9BA2A1.jpeg

one of many such storms that has occurred over the past 9 years.

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@PA road DAWG I was affected twice in 2010, sister 40 miles south of me got two back to back storms at +20” each one, I got 2” the first one and 3” on the second one.. I know the pain of a strong blocking high

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Split flow, once again, very evident in the medium range modeling (one can also state that it is present at the end of the near term as well).

Muddling of (Op) model solutions most likely manifests in mayhem. 

 

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28 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Split flow, once again, very evident in the medium range modeling (one can also state that it is present at the end of the near term as well).

Muddling of (Op) model solutions most likely manifests in mayhem. 

 

Split flow is always such a delight. Easy forecasting. This one might as well be set in stone.

Nope. 

Having said that, SF (sugar flapjacks) can hide many surprises. 

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00z EPS:

Webp.net-gifmaker.gif.9fd0eff6c5e6381fc865bd797ebcd729.gif

Looking nice!

 

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Euro model output used by the Weather Channel on my phone APP for SEPA region has snow mentioned that adds up to a 4-8” type storm .. it’s early yet but they nailed the November storm .. good luck everyone happy tracking !!

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