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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

shaulov4

December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

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Still plenty of time and lots of potential, but southern slider this run by the GFS

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

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2 minutes ago, PA Snow 84 said:

Still plenty of time and lots of potential, but southern slider this run by the GFS

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

Ya this early in the season I just want stuff to track.  I don’t care where it goes or what type of precip it is.  I just need something to occupy my free time when I’m not busy. 

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 Much better northern stream interaction on the FV3. 

02BE5C55-E1AD-4002-864A-A99170910061.png

D94F9D8D-202E-4BF2-B3BD-DE81DF4DC7A3.png

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5 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

 Much better northern stream interaction on the FV3. 

02BE5C55-E1AD-4002-864A-A99170910061.png

D94F9D8D-202E-4BF2-B3BD-DE81DF4DC7A3.png

That's pretty sexy...let's see what Mr.Euro says

Edited by shaulov4

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Choked on my sunflower seeds when I popped back in to check the FV3. That's a bomb. :very-shocked-smiley-emoticon:

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2 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

That's pretty sexy...let's see what Mr.Euro says

This whole system depends on the northern Vort.  If that rides out ahead and leads, it’s a done deal, it’ll suppress.   If the northern Vort dives on and interacts we’re golden 

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9 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

 Much better northern stream interaction on the FV3. 

02BE5C55-E1AD-4002-864A-A99170910061.png

D94F9D8D-202E-4BF2-B3BD-DE81DF4DC7A3.png

Oh my God!  Please!

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17 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

 Much better northern stream interaction on the FV3. 

02BE5C55-E1AD-4002-864A-A99170910061.png

D94F9D8D-202E-4BF2-B3BD-DE81DF4DC7A3.png

 

12 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

That's pretty sexy...let's see what Mr.Euro says

 

10 minutes ago, PA Snow 84 said:

Choked on my sunflower seeds when I popped back in to check the FV3. That's a bomb. :very-shocked-smiley-emoticon:

I have declared that the FV3 is to be referred to by it's aka - that is to say,  refer to it as GFS-FVXXX (for it is so often very "dirty"). 

Carry on. :classic_laugh:

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7 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

 

 

I have declared that the FV3 is to be referred to by it's aka - that is to say,  refer to it as GFS-FVXXX (for it is so often very "dirty"). 

Carry on. :classic_laugh:

Impossible to disagree... 

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FV3-GFS snowmap:

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_41.png

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Bullseye 10 days out.

 

 Not

good 

Edited by PA road DAWG
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Just now, paletitsnow63 said:

FV3-GFS snowmap:

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_41.png

Note that the storm is still raging at the coast at this point.

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Just now, PA road DAWG said:

Bullseyes 10 days out.

 

 Not

good 

2016 you say? 😂

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1 minute ago, shaulov4 said:

2016 you say? 😂

Worst year ever lol 

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The snow map I just posted is the totals for all 240 hours on the FV3-GFS. Now most of that in the MA did fall from the storm depicted for this thread.   No 24 hour snow total available on TT site.    Here is the 24 hour total QPF for H246.

 

fv3p_apcpn24_neus_38.png

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4 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

Note that the storm is still raging at the coast at this point.

Yea. With how cold the storm is and it’s dynamics I wouldn’t be surprised if 3ft totals were displayed on those maps in the poconos for THIS RUN ONLY.  Way to early to talk about this stuff but it’s all for fun w run to run talk 

Edited by PA road DAWG
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3 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Way to early to talk about this stuff but it’s all for fun w run to run talk 

Yes, I enjoy reading all the posts, and the opinions/enthusiasm.  Some people and (other) forums are openly hostile about 'run to run' discussions,  which makes me wonder why they're on a weather forum at all!   The back and forth and changes keep things interesting!

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12 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

Note that the storm is still raging at the coast at this point.

Please show the and of this run!!

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Mostly a lurker....so I apologize if this is a silly question.  I am not as familiar with the FV3  GFS vs the GFS.  Whats is the difference?

And is there anyone that recalls what the FV3 showed for the last storm we just had (this far out?).  I enjoy trying to figure out which models perform better vs other models at the various time frames.

Sorry if that is a silly question.  

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7 minutes ago, Maureen said:

Yes, I enjoy reading all the posts, and the opinions/enthusiasm.  Some people and (other) forums are openly hostile about 'run to run' discussions,  which makes me wonder why they're on a weather forum at all!   The back and forth and changes keep things interesting!

33andrain for sure !   Agree 100%. You took the words right out of my mouth ,  Enthusiasm and excitement 

Edited by PA road DAWG
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Yikes!!   I love the color green around the holidays !

F9629514-40F1-420B-992A-54277E2A4229.png

7A608076-65C2-47F4-8F29-F172B02E8289.png

Edited by PA road DAWG
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10 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Please show the and of this run!!

It only goes out to hr240

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11 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

It only goes out to hr240

I just posted it

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This is more or less the start of this storm.

The low pressure to the south over Texas is part of a lower presssure string that is attached to the low pressure over SE Canada.

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_9.png.9f13778c4d87e503ccef8cddc44d9d13.png

It needs to detach to avoid being a cutter or a FROPA on this run.

 

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Much better northern stream interaction with the euro however it looks like it might cut

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