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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

shaulov4

December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

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30 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

33andrain for sure !   Agree 100%. You took the words right out of my mouth ,  Enthusiasm and excitement 

Don't remind me. ;)

:police-smiley-emoticon::rapper-smiley-emoticon:

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1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said:

Much better northern stream interaction with the euro however it looks like it might cut

Southern stream low pressure did not detach from the that lower pressure string going all the way to the northern low pressure over SE Canada.

As a result, as the northern low pressure moves to the east, it elongates the southern low pressure, to the point it may cut as a very elonged low pressure or become a FROPA.

That should happen this run.q

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Turned out to be a semi-FROPA.\

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29 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Yikes!!   I love the color green around the holidays !

F9629514-40F1-420B-992A-54277E2A4229.png

7A608076-65C2-47F4-8F29-F172B02E8289.png

I mean...I'll take it, lol!

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1 hour ago, shaulov4 said:

That's pretty sexy...let's see what Mr.Euro says

Mr. Euro says rain

11-29 12z Euro h216.gif

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1 minute ago, StL WeatherJunkie said:

Mr. Euro says rain

11-29 12z Euro h216.gif

Even though track differences are large among the various models, they are all picking up on the idea of a big storm in this time frame. The final Euro frame indicates an 85 knot LLJ ... whoever gets snow on the nose of that LLJ is going to get crushed. 

 

Spoiler

890782644_11-2912zEuroh240.thumb.gif.874d73993505f452daaf72fc9eb42746.gif

 

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One more eye candy for today  

E2DE22DF-FD87-41EF-BBC6-DBC6406C707A.png

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The eps is light years different than it’s op run.  In fact, the euro control is a southern slider and crushes tenn, va and nc.  I’ll take the middle road haha. Fv3 for the win.   The eps member spread is all over the place.   Models still having a tough time figuring this one out.  Still the signal is strong for this storm. 

7910D00A-D2D0-4F35-92E7-00F067E53A54.jpeg

Edited by PA road DAWG
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The important question everyone should be asking is what does @Snobal think of this threat? 

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13 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

Eps mean at 12z

60313BAD-5D25-4DE3-A24B-8DCE5C4F846B.png.32e83d8f967d407fa71b58cd18689659.png

Longtime no talk poc.  What’s your take on these upcoming systems.  Think the fv3 holds any merit  given the /eps?

Edited by PA road DAWG

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fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

Lock it in...

 

Oh, BTW, I work Sundays, so the TDAT-CAR index is in full support of this one. 

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At least I'll have my snow blower ready this time around! Looks nice on the weeny maps. Hope it pans out.

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17 minutes ago, TheDayAfterTommorow said:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

Lock it in...

 

Oh, BTW, I work Sundays, so the TDAT-CAR index is in full support of this one. 

Funny you say that because I too am working.   Good things tend to happen when I’m scheduled to work

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If only this wasn't 10 days away. Would love to see this come to fruition and ride right on up to me. I wont get greedy because we have already received 20" on the year, but it would be nice! 

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I will admit that this potential is so very juicy. It starts as a storm entering SoCal and it makes it the whole way across the S US until it (cuts, curves, bends, hooks, goes OTS, whatever). Those always seems to be monster storms, for sure. (first one I remember seeing do that was March 93). But I won't run out to lube the snow thrower just yet - maybe before too long, but not just yet. 

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1 minute ago, UTSwiinii said:

Are we supposed to figure out this cryptic post all on our own? :hmm:

I copied the link and it posted an old pic. Weird.... 🤷🏻‍♂️🤦‍♂️

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1 minute ago, UTSwiinii said:

Are we supposed to figure out this cryptic post all on our own? :hmm:

On thanksgiving they were running a few hours ahead. Now they're running a few weeks behind. They must be in a wormhole of some sort. 

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4 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Longtime no talk poc.  What’s your take on these upcoming systems.  Think the fv3 holds any merit  given the /eps?

Howdy

as always would lean on ensembles at this lead time, though even they are pretty muddy for this period.  Solutions range from way inland to weak and low and outside. 

What’s so very interesting is that we can trace this dusturbance back into the mid pacific valid today.

Watch it meander it’s way ontoshore in SoCal and crawl across the coast making its way to the east coast on the tail end of a convergence of a split stream.F1CA7419-F483-423A-94E1-E9E29ADAC0E3.gif.b63897ba3e269a654a6b08bb9ff117ba.gif

3BDBB8BD-7DDC-4C7F-9648-09E9A625642A.gif.b9fee3f65b615d2b5447bf9d65b6a9a6.gif

Amazing really. It’s quite the trooper. The myriad of solutions is a variable of the uncertainty in a split flow regime.  That being said we do have some certainty with this threat given the persistence of the upper level low which is consistent on its path across the east pacific into SoCal and across the lower 48. It eventually creates the moisture laiden wave that simply begs to be tilted by any impulse from the north that’s willing to drop in.  

The question then becomes more of timing.  When will the nothern split send a willing partner?  Currently up to three different nothern short waves take a stab at it. 

64435521-04F9-4B74-9E16-B5A0CF70E705.gif.aa96729343e73e85a1531dbf91756405.gif

At some point ensembles will win out and hone in on how long it will take the ULL to break and get into a receptive position around Texas, and which one of the nothern impulses if any will dig deep enough to tilt and lift the disturbance north. 

It’s not often you see such a straightforward representation of a storm, especially during a split flow in the pacific.  One thing for sure will be the moisture of such a system as it will have plenty of help from the pacific and subtropics.  A large amount of potential exists in this setup.

 

 

 

 

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Please allow me to be the first to say....sun angle won't be a problem with this :classic_biggrin:

Good, now we got that out of the way.

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20 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

Howdy

as always would lean on ensembles at this lead time, though even they are pretty muddy for this period.  Solutions range from way inland to weak and low and outside. 

What’s so very interesting is that we can trace this dusturbance back into the mid pacific valid today.

Watch it meander it’s way ontoshore in SoCal and crawl across the coast making its way to the east coast on the tail end of a convergence of a split stream.F1CA7419-F483-423A-94E1-E9E29ADAC0E3.gif.b63897ba3e269a654a6b08bb9ff117ba.gif

3BDBB8BD-7DDC-4C7F-9648-09E9A625642A.gif.b9fee3f65b615d2b5447bf9d65b6a9a6.gif

Amazing really. It’s quite the trooper. The myriad of solutions is a variable of the uncertainty in a split flow regime.  That being said we do have some certainty with this threat given the persistence of the upper level low which is consistent on its path across the east pacific into SoCal and across the lower 48. It eventually creates the moisture laiden wave that simply begs to be tilted by any impulse from the north that’s willing to drop in.  

The question then becomes more of timing.  When will the nothern split send a willing partner?  Currently up to three different nothern short waves take a stab at it. 

64435521-04F9-4B74-9E16-B5A0CF70E705.gif.aa96729343e73e85a1531dbf91756405.gif

At some point ensembles will win out and hone in on how long it will take the ULL to break and get into a receptive position around Texas, and which one of the nothern impulses if any will dig deep enough to tilt and lift the disturbance north. 

It’s not often you see such a straightforward representation of a storm, especially during a split flow in the pacific.  One thing for sure will be the moisture of such a system as it will have plenty of help from the pacific and subtropics.  A large amount of potential exists in this setup.

 

 

 

 

Nice post.  

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22 minutes ago, Poconosnow said:

Howdy

as always would lean on ensembles at this lead time, though even they are pretty muddy for this period.  Solutions range from way inland to weak and low and outside. 

What’s so very interesting is that we can trace this dusturbance back into the mid pacific valid today.

Watch it meander it’s way ontoshore in SoCal and crawl across the coast making its way to the east coast on the tail end of a convergence of a split stream.F1CA7419-F483-423A-94E1-E9E29ADAC0E3.gif.b63897ba3e269a654a6b08bb9ff117ba.gif

3BDBB8BD-7DDC-4C7F-9648-09E9A625642A.gif.b9fee3f65b615d2b5447bf9d65b6a9a6.gif

Amazing really. It’s quite the trooper. The myriad of solutions is a variable of the uncertainty in a split flow regime.  That being said we do have some certainty with this threat given the persistence of the upper level low which is consistent on its path across the east pacific into SoCal and across the lower 48. It eventually creates the moisture laiden wave that simply begs to be tilted by any impulse from the north that’s willing to drop in.  

The question then becomes more of timing.  When will the nothern split send a willing partner?  Currently up to three different nothern short waves take a stab at it. 

64435521-04F9-4B74-9E16-B5A0CF70E705.gif.aa96729343e73e85a1531dbf91756405.gif

At some point ensembles will win out and hone in on how long it will take the ULL to break and get into a receptive position around Texas, and which one of the nothern impulses if any will dig deep enough to tilt and lift the disturbance north. 

It’s not often you see such a straightforward representation of a storm, especially during a split flow in the pacific.  One thing for sure will be the moisture of such a system as it will have plenty of help from the pacific and subtropics.  A large amount of potential exists in this setup.

 

 

 

 

you always type up beauties don't you. I am not worthy oh wise one.

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