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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

shaulov4

December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

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3 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

A lesson to anyone who doesn't know it. 

Dont put hopes on Canadians or their weather model. 

 

 

Ever since they elected Trudeau... 

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4 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

A lesson to anyone who doesn't know it. 

Dont put hopes on Canadians or their weather model. 

 

 

But...but...but...what about the tropics??!! 

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We still have perhaps two days to hope for some positive changes.

However, as of now, this is a North Carolina to Virginia storm.

And probably a storm for the central parts of those states as the eastern regions seem to get flooded with warm air, where there lies the threat of ice.  The Georgia and North Carolina border could see a bad ice situation.

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21 minutes ago, Jblizz68 said:

Nice! A large precipitation shield with convection going on as well hopefully that translates to thunder snow and mesoscale banding for someone downstream! 

https://youtu.be/EzclOi3lGE4

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1 minute ago, Phased Vort said:

We still have perhaps two days to hope for some positive changes.

However, as of now, this is a North Carolina to Virginia storm.

And probably a storm for the central parts of those states as the eastern regions seem to get flooded with warm air, where there lies the threat of ice.  The Georgia and North Carolina border could see a bad ice situation.

It certainly isn't over. And there will be a healthy storm. Maybe just not what many were hoping for in here. 

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Yeah.  The hope for a storm coming up the coast is pretty much gone. I'm one the biggest optimists, but, this particular storm is not the one. Excited for those in the Carolina's and maybe Virginia. 

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11 minutes ago, horseapples said:

Margusity also used to say that where a storm enters the country is also where it exits.  He was referring to bowling ball storms such as this one.  This one enters southern California and exits the Carolinas.

I remember watching his videos and listen to him say that many times.

Seems to be the case here. Although, this is still not resolved yet.

But If we did not have that blocking like feature of lower heights over SE Canada and Northern Maine, this one "could" tell a totally different story.

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This will be a great southern Appalachian snowstorm for sure.  I think the rest of the Northeast has a better shot at the next system as I’ve always like that timeframe better for us up here.  AO and NAO tanking with a huge trough cutting through the eastern half of the country.  Could be explosive all depending on where it sets up 

A75185E4-9CA8-45ED-928D-F7F2947F20E5.gif

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4 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

I remember watching his videos and listen to him say that many times.

Seems to be the case here. Although, this is still not resolved yet.

But If we did not have that blocking like feature of lower heights over SE Canada and Northern Maine, this one "could" tell a totally different story.

I agree that there are some atmospheric factors at play, but just keep thinking of him saying that.  Particularly in this case.  Well, still time for some changes and dry and cold always beats warm and rain....  If it does play out as modeled, NC will be paralyzed for weeks.  I think that state owns one snow plow and it is probably in the shop right now.

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Well this is my first post since I came over from the Accu forums. Since the other North Carolinians aren't coming out in droves on here, figured I would. It seems as though I am painted near the bullseye for this storm (well, outside of the mountains at least) as I'm right near the base of the foothills ... current Weather Channel paints us in 8-12". Local mets are gonna be local mets and saying it's too far out and it may be all rain. The GFS has been a bit more ambitious and keeps throwing putting a 20+ number right over us. Following every model update and seeing what comes.

One of the weirder things about this storm is that last year, to the very weekend, we here in central NC got an 8" snow event. In terms of significant early December snows, I can't remember one before that in my lifetime (I'm 27). So I find it very interesting that two years in a row, on the same exact weekend, we're looking likely to get significant snowfalls. Gotta love the fun tidbits weather throws at us.

Hope it takes a northerly track for you snow lovers north of me but either way, I'll be sure to take some good pictures for all to enjoy.

With this being my first post, I'd be remissed if I didn't say greetings to everyone. I'm a novice compared to many on this board but studying weather and tracking storms has been a passion of mine since I was about 15 or 16 so if there are questions people have on here that I can answer, I'll always be more than glad to chip in my 2 cents.

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A lot of people seem to have a whole lot of faith these models have it right at this point. I guess I'm  just a skeptic but the only thing I expect from them is a big surprise of some sort. Not sure I would throw in the towel so early if I was looking for changes. 

thumb_sometimes-feel-like-throwing-in-the-towel-but-you-know-11319587.png.ba1800e5c085e5960d5a5f0994fc7028.png

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2 minutes ago, WhiteBear0719 said:

Well this is my first post since I came over from the Accu forums. Since the other North Carolinians aren't coming out in droves on here, figured I would. It seems as though I am painted near the bullseye for this storm (well, outside of the mountains at least) as I'm right near the base of the foothills ... current Weather Channel paints us in 8-12". Local mets are gonna be local mets and saying it's too far out and it may be all rain. The GFS has been a bit more ambitious and keeps throwing putting a 20+ number right over us. Following every model update and seeing what comes.

One of the weirder things about this storm is that last year, to the very weekend, we here in central NC got an 8" snow event. In terms of significant early December snows, I can't remember one before that in my lifetime (I'm 27). So I find it very interesting that two years in a row, on the same exact weekend, we're looking likely to get significant snowfalls. Gotta love the fun tidbits weather throws at us.

Hope it takes a northerly track for you snow lovers north of me but either way, I'll be sure to take some good pictures for all to enjoy.

With this being my first post, I'd be remissed if I didn't say greetings to everyone. I'm a novice compared to many on this board but studying weather and tracking storms has been a passion of mine since I was about 15 or 16 so if there are questions people have on here that I can answer, I'll always be more than glad to chip in my 2 cents.

Welcome - I look forward to your additional contributions. Any chance you live by Cherokee? I've always wanted to experience a big snow storm in my favorite cabin I rent out in Bryson City

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7 minutes ago, horseapples said:

I agree that there are some atmospheric factors at play, but just keep thinking of him saying that.  Particularly in this case.  Well, still time for some changes and dry and cold always beats warm and rain....  If it does play out as modeled, NC will be paralyzed for weeks.  I think that state owns one snow plow and it is probably in the shop right now.

The amounts shown on the snow map for potential snowfall is absurd.

Widespread 1-foot amounts, 2 feet amounts, and many areas, and some areas even getting into the 2 feet and a half amounts or more.

I can´t even imagine how it would look like or be there if this were to happen.

424889112_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesMidAtlanticSnowfall150.thumb.png.2410d1746abd99cecfb9bb53431a323d.png

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Wow.  Atlantic City got a WSW out of today's disturbance.    I also posted in the other thread that goes with that but came as a shocker to me.  Didn't realize that disturbance would be that hefty as it turned out to be.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/severe/us/nj/atlantic-city

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2 minutes ago, 1816 said:

A lot of people seem to have a whole lot of faith these models have it right at this point. I guess I'm  just a skeptic but the only thing I expect from them is a big surprise of some sort. Not sure I would throw in the towel so early if I was looking for changes. 

thumb_sometimes-feel-like-throwing-in-the-towel-but-you-know-11319587.png.ba1800e5c085e5960d5a5f0994fc7028.png

What I'd find refreshing is some commentary on what would need to change for a more "positive" outcome for the main population of this sub forum. I have my notions and will post them eventually, but if we could get onto that and past the lamentation, that would be AOK w/me. 

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5 minutes ago, WhiteBear0719 said:

Well this is my first post since I came over from the Accu forums. Since the other North Carolinians aren't coming out in droves on here, figured I would. It seems as though I am painted near the bullseye for this storm (well, outside of the mountains at least) as I'm right near the base of the foothills ... current Weather Channel paints us in 8-12". Local mets are gonna be local mets and saying it's too far out and it may be all rain. The GFS has been a bit more ambitious and keeps throwing putting a 20+ number right over us. Following every model update and seeing what comes.

One of the weirder things about this storm is that last year, to the very weekend, we here in central NC got an 8" snow event. In terms of significant early December snows, I can't remember one before that in my lifetime (I'm 27). So I find it very interesting that two years in a row, on the same exact weekend, we're looking likely to get significant snowfalls. Gotta love the fun tidbits weather throws at us.

Hope it takes a northerly track for you snow lovers north of me but either way, I'll be sure to take some good pictures for all to enjoy.

With this being my first post, I'd be remissed if I didn't say greetings to everyone. I'm a novice compared to many on this board but studying weather and tracking storms has been a passion of mine since I was about 15 or 16 so if there are questions people have on here that I can answer, I'll always be more than glad to chip in my 2 cents.

Feel at home and welcome.

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i dont see this storm coming back north 400 miles and slamming me :(

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My Mother (who lives in Wilminton NC along with my sister) texted me this morning telling me that the local mets are calling for 10'' rain over the weekend, as if they need any more!

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1 minute ago, panda_monium said:

My Mother (who lives in Wilminton NC along with my sister) texted me this morning telling me that the local mets are calling for 10'' rain over the weekend, as if they need any more!

I don't think there's that much QPF at play here, maybe a few " for sure but 10?

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4 minutes ago, weathergoof said:

i dont see this storm coming back north 400 miles and slamming me :(

cool, thanks. 

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It is still Wednesday, right? :classic_sleep:

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Bolded has been the common theme this year, no surprise.

6 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

Wow.  Atlantic City got a WSW out of today's disturbance.    I also posted in the other thread that goes with that but came as a shocker to me.  Didn't realize that disturbance would be that hefty as it turned out to be.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/severe/us/nj/atlantic-city

 

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13 minutes ago, WhiteBear0719 said:

Well this is my first post since I came over from the Accu forums. Since the other North Carolinians aren't coming out in droves on here, figured I would. It seems as though I am painted near the bullseye for this storm (well, outside of the mountains at least) as I'm right near the base of the foothills ... current Weather Channel paints us in 8-12". Local mets are gonna be local mets and saying it's too far out and it may be all rain. The GFS has been a bit more ambitious and keeps throwing putting a 20+ number right over us. Following every model update and seeing what comes.

One of the weirder things about this storm is that last year, to the very weekend, we here in central NC got an 8" snow event. In terms of significant early December snows, I can't remember one before that in my lifetime (I'm 27). So I find it very interesting that two years in a row, on the same exact weekend, we're looking likely to get significant snowfalls. Gotta love the fun tidbits weather throws at us.

Hope it takes a northerly track for you snow lovers north of me but either way, I'll be sure to take some good pictures for all to enjoy.

With this being my first post, I'd be remissed if I didn't say greetings to everyone. I'm a novice compared to many on this board but studying weather and tracking storms has been a passion of mine since I was about 15 or 16 so if there are questions people have on here that I can answer, I'll always be more than glad to chip in my 2 cents.

Welcome back to the crew! 

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2 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

I don't think there's that much QPF at play here, maybe a few " for sure but 10?

Sounds overdone to me too, but I'm not there to listen to the local mets and their analysis.  I should really start reading the AFD's for all the places my family is scattered along the Eastern seaboard.

Could be that they gave a reasonable range and Mom is assuming the worst (though based on how 2018 has gone, I don't blame anyone in coastal NC for leaning high):Smiley06:

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1 minute ago, UTSwiinii said:

It is still Wednesday, right? :classic_sleep:

I know what you're saying.   Both you and I remember the BDB in 2010.   That one was modeled by all OTS (including the EURO) up until about 48 to 60 hours before storm.    I do think early on (6 to 7 days out) some of the models showed as a hit but then lost it only to come back in the H48 to H60 range.

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