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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

shaulov4

December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

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Long time accuweather lurker ( never made an account), and fellow North Carolinian here. I’m too far east for those big totals. 

 

I live about 25 miles east of raleigh, normally in storms like this raleigh is the dividing line anyhow so I doubt I’ll get much of anything with this. Though chapel hill west will. 

 

Also great work... I doubt I’ll post much but maybe I’ll get sucked into it all.

 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, weathergoof said:

i dont see this storm coming back north 400 miles and slamming me :(

Crazier things have happened and there is still PLENTY of time left for this to change. I've seen modeled storms move 300-400 miles within a day or two prior to event. It's not great to be in jackpot a couple days out, especially 5! 

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13 minutes ago, WhiteBear0719 said:

Well this is my first post since I came over from the Accu forums. Since the other North Carolinians aren't coming out in droves on here, figured I would. It seems as though I am painted near the bullseye for this storm (well, outside of the mountains at least) as I'm right near the base of the foothills ... current Weather Channel paints us in 8-12". Local mets are gonna be local mets and saying it's too far out and it may be all rain. The GFS has been a bit more ambitious and keeps throwing putting a 20+ number right over us. Following every model update and seeing what comes.

One of the weirder things about this storm is that last year, to the very weekend, we here in central NC got an 8" snow event. In terms of significant early December snows, I can't remember one before that in my lifetime (I'm 27). So I find it very interesting that two years in a row, on the same exact weekend, we're looking likely to get significant snowfalls. Gotta love the fun tidbits weather throws at us.

Hope it takes a northerly track for you snow lovers north of me but either way, I'll be sure to take some good pictures for all to enjoy.

With this being my first post, I'd be remissed if I didn't say greetings to everyone. I'm a novice compared to many on this board but studying weather and tracking storms has been a passion of mine since I was about 15 or 16 so if there are questions people have on here that I can answer, I'll always be more than glad to chip in my 2 cents.

Sup man!  I just made an account too!  Came over from Accu as well.  I'm over in High Point not too far from you.  We definitely seem to be in the bulls-eye for this thing and I can't wait!!
Getting tried of all the northerners whining about not having this thing come farther north like they don't get snow all the time.  This is like a once in a blue moon even for us down here.  Wish they could just be happy for us.  I'm sure they'll get a storm in about a week or so after this.  Typically how things go.
I do wonder why the south-east forum is dead though.  You would think it would be flooded with ppl from VA, NC, SC and GA.  Possibly even ppl from TN.  Oh well.  Hope it picks up this winter!  Not sure I like posting with all of these damn Yankees.  :classic_tongue: 

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4 minutes ago, Kohler7 said:

Sup man!  I just made an account too!  Came over from Accu as well.  I'm over in High Point not too far from you.  We definitely seem to be in the bulls-eye for this thing and I can't wait!!
Getting tried of all the northerners whining about not having this thing come farther north like they don't get snow all the time.  This is like a once in a blue moon even for us down here.  Wish they could just be happy for us.  I'm sure they'll get a storm in about a week or so after this.  Typically how things go.
I do wonder why the south-east forum is dead though.  You would think it would be flooded with ppl from VA, NC, SC and GA.  Possibly even ppl from TN.  Oh well.  Hope it picks up this winter!  Not sure I like posting with all of these damn Yankees.  :classic_tongue: 

Y’all over in high point will almost certainly get snow. I don’t think we will see those massive amounts modeled though. That would be a natural disaster and we don’t need anymore of those. 

 

 

On another note this storm may tip Wilmington over 100 inches for the year!

Edited by Tarwx

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2 hours ago, Winter_warlock said:

I was 11 at the time. I been  a student of meteorology ever since. My wife doesnt understand my obsession with the weather lol

Wives never do.

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I saw on a local met office that a model brought the storm closer to New England???

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Kim on the lake... im also from NW CT... hope this storm hits us

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6 minutes ago, WeatherDCA said:

Wives never do.

Unless it is the female that is obsessed with weather....that is how it rolls in my house!

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5 minutes ago, weathergoof said:

Kim on the lake... im also from NW CT... hope this storm hits us

I am on Bantam Lake...good to see you on here! Need that Canadian energy to not cozy up so close to New England and the UL is a concern....soooooo many pieces in play here, but....fun to track!

 

Edited by kim on the lake

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2 minutes ago, kim on the lake said:

Unless it is the female that is the weather obsessed one... that is how it rolls in my house!

 

large.jpg

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Was just going to say that everyone is in line now, but that's not the case.  The 12z GFS was furthest north with precip

image.thumb.png.8cf4e8dbbb2c638463f707a5b2adcdd9.png

Then the Euro

image.thumb.png.962abdeca1854a1ef245025d2383f75f.png

Then the NAVGEM

image.thumb.png.16c40b5e7f7b7b5c813554dd61f92638.png

And the UKMET seems S of the GFS which is odd.

  image.png.4a420d381c566b1f5cbbf36ecd91d25a.png    image.png.622bab3b0eff4aaf5c6d343859b4f575.png

Normal from W to E, or N to S:  Ukie, Euro, GFS, NAVGEM.   CMC is a wildcard, can be anywhere. 

 

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1 minute ago, kim on the lake said:

I am on Bantam Lake...good to see you on here! 

 

Hey Kim... Another Connecticut guy here....was on secret laje in canton for the last 4.5 years...just moved to Plainville. Looking for the next " BIG ONE ". 

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24 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

I know what you're saying.   Both you and I remember the BDB in 2010.   That one was modeled by all OTS (including the EURO) up until about 48 to 60 hours before storm.    I do think early on (6 to 7 days out) some of the models showed as a hit but then lost it only to come back in the H48 to H60 range.

Indeed...

I was thinking about that storm this morning when the TWC folks brought up the possible scenario of this storm coming up the coast and hitting us in the North East...  They presented it as a low possibility...  but possible scenario/outcome

I do not recall a storm when they showed a perceived outlier unless they are thinking "Maybe....."

Time will tell- it is five days to go for my area to see anything of this storm, if it comes for us.

Edited by Kensai

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1 hour ago, horseapples said:

Margusity also used to say that where a storm enters the country is also where it exits.  He was referring to bowling ball storms such as this one.  This one enters southern California and exits the Carolinas.

He did indeed, and that maxim is one I still use today. This storm seems like it heard that saying too.  Still time for a move north. I'd feel better if it was 100 miles more north, as it looks like RIchmond south in VA will be in the heavy snow alley moreso than NOVA. That's happened more than once the last few years. 

Edited by risingriver

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55 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

I remember watching his videos and listen to him say that many times.

Seems to be the case here. Although, this is still not resolved yet.

But If we did not have that blocking like feature of lower heights over SE Canada and Northern Maine, this one "could" tell a totally different story.

he has is own site now he is still doing weather  putting on the big daddy hat .

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1 hour ago, MDBlueRidge said:

It certainly isn't over. And there will be a healthy storm. Maybe just not what many were hoping for in here. 

Not over by far.

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Yeah.  The hope for a storm coming up the coast is pretty much gone. I'm one the biggest optimists, but, this particular storm is not the one. Excited for those in the Carolina's and maybe Virginia. 

I don't even know why this comment is even essential to anyone including yourself

29 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

It is still Wednesday, right? :classic_sleep:

By the way people are talking it seems like the storm has passed. Meanwhile AC is having its own little snow storm that wasn't expected until 24hrs ago.......

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42 minutes ago, 1816 said:

A lot of people seem to have a whole lot of faith these models have it right at this point. I guess I'm  just a skeptic but the only thing I expect from them is a big surprise of some sort. Not sure I would throw in the towel so early if I was looking for changes. 

 

Yes, that's where I'm at, too.  I'm actually happy to have this miss PA, for several reasons, but I'm not counting any chickens quite yet.  It's Wednesday.  This event is six or seven days in the future.  Let's not get too confident in anything quite yet.

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4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Hey Kim... Another Connecticut guy here....was on secret laje in canton for the last 4.5 years...just moved to Plainville. Looking for the next " BIG ONE ". 

Always looking!!!! But, also love the tracking...even if its not hitting me. I face direct NE across the water and so love winter storms and summer fronts....

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7 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Normal from W to E, or N to S:  Ukie, Euro, GFS, NAVGEM.   CMC is a wildcard, can be anywhere.

  

saturday-night-live-drunk-uncle-bobby-moynihan-snl.png

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21 minutes ago, Tarwx said:

Y’all over in high point will almost certainly get snow. I don’t think we will see those massive amounts modeled though. That would be a natural disaster and we don’t need anymore of those. 

 

 

On another note this storm may tip Wilmington over 100 inches for the year!

I

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Per GFS

A comes into North America in the NW Territories around hr 54

B comes in between 36 and 48 hrs from now in Northern BC

C comes in around 48 hrs in Baja

I don't think many of these points have the best sampling coverage.

image.png.d7f0ebbe9c856836c7b3c588583ed937.png

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