Jump to content
Search In
  • More options...
Find results that contain...
Find results in...
White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

shaulov4

December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

Staff Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, njwx7 said:

12z EPS

 

Webp.net-gifmaker (1).gif

Does that come with hand drawn arrows? Asking for a friend...

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Euro seems to want to help us with that kicker also strengthens the ULL to 540 and closes 

6452FFE5-C382-419E-A333-BCC40C3022F3.thumb.jpeg.eaf040f3be8304b37538df9dbfd92754.jpeg

E20F4EF4-688D-40A1-9C0C-AD038C8C3C94.thumb.jpeg.4d0b371db44bd4f69ceb154836e9daad.jpeg

That kicker can also become very grabby in this set up. It's a matter of hours that will make the difference and it will not be resolved for a bit yet. That being said, again on teleconnections, I would lean towards a capture over Ots. A negative PNA is huge with regards to trough orientation and the NAO is actually forecast to be in negative territory (just to help slow this down a bit). I expect a capture here. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, kim on the lake said:

I am on Bantam Lake...good to see you on here! 

 

I've spent many hours in Whites Woods right by there! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I noticed that the Euro ensmble members from earlier were tightly clustered along the coast (some even a little inland).  Would that not be a signal that future op runs should push somewhat more north and west? The 12z Ggem kind of hinted to that more tucked system I do believe. However, I also noticed that the Nav took a more southern and easterly approach on its most recent run. Partial phasing appeared to be somewhat evident (or heading in that direction) on the 12z Nam at the end of its cycle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, jdrenken said:

Does that come with hand drawn arrows? Asking for a friend...

I can ask my own questions, dagnumit. 

  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

These guys are good. They had me on their show a while back.

Is this you?

DR. CLAW.png

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

That kicker can also become very grabby in this set up. It's a matter of hours that will make the difference and it will not be resolved for a bit yet. That being said, again on teleconnections, I would lean towards a capture over Ots. A negative PNA is huge with regards to trough orientation and the NAO is actually forecast to be in negative territory (just to help slow this down a bit). I expect a capture here. 

Do you think it will capture to far East though?

Edited by Weather Fury

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I've spent many hours in Whites Woods right by there! 

Yes.....5K acres!!!! It's ridiculously beautiful here! NW CT period is beautiful! 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I've spent many hours in Whites Woods right by there! 

done lots of skiing on that lake many years

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, WeatherDCA said:

Wives never do.

Guess I'm just the luck one then - 'twas the wife that turned me on to any kind of forum participation - back in 2008. She told me about a guy initialed HM. I watched his schtick, realized how bad it was, decided I could do at least that well, and here I am. 

16 minutes ago, kim on the lake said:

Unless it is the female that is obsessed with weather....that is how it rolls in my house!

Here here!

7 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

These guys are good. They had me on their show a while back.

Wait - I thought you said they were "good". (sorry, I just had to :classic_laugh:)

5 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Per GFS

A comes into North America in the NW Territories around hr 54

B comes in between 36 and 48 hrs from now in Northern BC

C comes in around 48 hrs in Baja

I don't think many of these points have the best sampling coverage.

image.png.d7f0ebbe9c856836c7b3c588583ed937.png

Nanook and the sled dogs have the NW Territory covered pretty well. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Weather Fury said:

Do you think it will capture to Far East though?

With regards to a capture, I believe this comes up the coast. For at least mid atl and SNE

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i love it here in NW CT.... I especially like the winters 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, brodoser1 said:

done lots of skiing on that lake many years

Have been on the lake my entire life so prob have seen you! LOL 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At what point should we start to see the sampling of these pieces enter the models? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, kim on the lake said:

Have been on the lake my entire life so prob have seen you! LOL 

yup I am sure I was the guy skiing topless lol

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Winston-Salem  NC here  - and I also came over from Accuweather.

I'm so excited for this potential storm!!  We tend to get ice around here so I say bring it on...  :dance2:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

That kicker can also become very grabby in this set up. It's a matter of hours that will make the difference and it will not be resolved for a bit yet. That being said, again on teleconnections, I would lean towards a capture over Ots. A negative PNA is huge with regards to trough orientation and the NAO is actually forecast to be in negative territory (just to help slow this down a bit). I expect a capture here. 

It is tantalizingly close on several runs, TBH. Even the MREF set has compelling perturbations that are not all that far off the coast.

2 minutes ago, Rich Mac said:

At what point should we start to see the sampling of these pieces enter the models? 

I recommend going back to Stretch's post on last page where he breaks that down in images

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great to see the North Carolinian folks here.

Where are the Virginians?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, WeatherDCA said:

Wives never do.

Neither do some husbands....:classic_dry:

Edited by Maureen
  • Like 2
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Phased Vort said:

Great to see the North Carolinian folks here.

Where are the Virginians?

Not on until 6:30 on my cable outlet

AV.PNG.fa8689b2d60590db69d2f412f5bf11d6.PNG

  • Haha 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Phased Vort said:

Great to see the North Carolinian folks here.

Where are the Virginians?

I'm here in Richmond, VA. Just lurking though. Seems like that rain/snow line will be a big factor for us this time around, as usual.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, davidt08 said:

I'm here in Richmond, VA. Just lurking though. Seems like that rain/snow line will be a big factor for us this time around, as usual.

 

Wait - you're Dave T from Richmond? Hmmmm (lol - j/k)

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Phased Vort said:

Great to see the North Carolinian folks here.

Where are the Virginians?

Here. Just west of Richmond city.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Phased Vort said:

Great to see the North Carolinian folks here.

Where are the Virginians?

Stockpiling the bread and milk. I'm going to make a killing on the grocery black market. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Wait - you're Dave T from Richmond? Hmmmm (lol - j/k)

Haha. I do work in the same city DT lives in...Chester, VA. He's pretty popular around here.

Edited by davidt08
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×