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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

shaulov4

December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

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1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Hey Kim... Another Connecticut guy here....was on secret laje in canton for the last 4.5 years...just moved to Plainville. Looking for the next " BIG ONE ". 

First post I read initially as "Batman" lake, and now here is Secret lake.  Connecticut is intriguing!!!  

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image.png.8f34e71782eafabaa66055bb3e67e032.png

Is it me or is the southern and northern holding hands..

GFS for comparison

image.png.657798abe3e5f32677146f152703e6af.png

Edited by shaulov4

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5 minutes ago, weathergoof said:

That's what I mean by the storm is in Illinois. the northern reaches of the precip shield is in Illinois 

Screenshot 2018-12-05 at 3.51.29 PM.png

It helps to show the whole screen with timestamp.

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18z Nam v 12z GFS

GFS

image.png.77153a1a8db2454877447a7fa10667ed.png

NAM

image.png.19d29603507143912ac8eb3c4d4e4f17.png

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3 minutes ago, weathergoof said:

That's what I mean by the storm is in Illinois. the northern reaches of the precip shield is in Illinois 

Screenshot 2018-12-05 at 3.51.29 PM.png

Ohhh the precip shield what site do you use? Is that pivotal weather?

Also unfortunately that high placement is definitely not in the best place to allow for a NE movement even extrapolated the pushing down affect if you will of the cold dome does work to allow storms to skim just the bottom portion of it. If it was say into southern Canada, I believe it is quebec, then we would be talking a different story.

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17 minutes ago, Moshe from brooklyn said:

 I Dont know if this is the right place to ask but ill try. I remember with the accuweather forums it was very helpful to me to see the location of any poster if the member entered it right on the post next to their name. Is there a way an administrator or someone higher up can do that? I liked to see where the poster is located without having to click and type on their info. Was very helpful to me. Overall this site is great and im really happy to be a part of it. 

I'll bring this up for sure!

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NAM certainly looks a little better for the northern fringe folk 

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4 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

image.png.8f34e71782eafabaa66055bb3e67e032.png

Is it me or is the southern and northern holding hands..

GFS for comparison

image.png.657798abe3e5f32677146f152703e6af.png

One thing for sure is the NAM has a slower solution due to it closing off which may help that is more of the look I see with energy that comes out of the SW. Sharper piece of energy into Maine Nova Scotia area that also helps with the punching up of the ridge ahead of the system. interesting but not sure it helps the north movement. Makes an interesting situation though in the mid atlantic

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From Sterling. Hedging some bets as is normal this far out.

Quote

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This weekend, attention will turn to the potential for a winter
storm. A strong area of high pressure will move across the Ohio
Valley on Saturday and become centered just to our north Saturday
Night. Mostly sunny skies are expected in the morning Saturday,
before high clouds begin to increase ahead of the approaching storm
Saturday Night. Temperatures will be well below normal on Saturday,
with highs in the 30s.

A potent mid-upper level trough embedded within the southern stream
will move across portions of Northern Mexico and Texas on Saturday.
In response to this trough, low pressure will form along the Gulf
Coast on Saturday and track off to the east. Northerly flow in
advance of the area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley will lock
cold air in to the east of the Appalachians in advance of the
system. Moving into Sunday, the aforementioned trough and
associated area of low pressure will continue to track off to the
east before eventually turning northeastward. Meanwhile, a shortwave
embedded in northwesterly flow will descend from the Northern Plains
toward the Middle Mississippi Valley. This feature, as well as other
shortwaves in Canada descending in northwesterly flow will begin to
interact with the southern stream trough and ultimately have an
impact on where the storm eventually tracks.

With so many complex features in play, the track of the storm, as
well as it`s associated impacts on our area are still up in the air.
The southern stream trough is just beginning to move onshore in
California and Mexico, while the trough from which many of the
northern stream shortwaves will originate is starting to approach
mainland Alaska. As these features move over the mainland, they will
be better sampled by our upper air network, hopefully leading to a
better initial condition in the models and some convergence between
the model solutions. For now, however, there is still a high amount
of uncertainty associated with the storm`s track and it`s impact on
our area.

In terms of specific solutions, the 00z Euro and 12z FV3 are very
similar and have a sharp north-south gradient in snowfall totals
across our area. These solutions would produce a major winter storm
across southern portions of our forecast area, with minimal impacts
across our northern areas. The operational GFS is a bit further
south, keeping all snow south of DC, with some snowfall occurring
across our southern areas. The far outlier currently is the Canadian
model, which produces major snowfall over much of our region.
Ensemble guidance (both the EPS and GEFS) still depicts a wide array
of potential solutions for the DC metro area, ranging from no
precipitation at all to a major snowfall. The takeaways right now
are: 1. It`s still a high uncertainty forecast and 2. The highest
odds for a major storm are currently across southwestern portions of
our forecast area. We will continue to monitor the storm and provide
updates as we move closer to the event.

Any impacts from the storm should wind down by Monday evening, and
high pressure will begin to build in for Tuesday. Mostly sunny skies
and well below normal temperatures are expected on Tuesday.

 

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See the "H" in Southern New Jersey at hour 81???

Screenshot 2018-12-05 at 4.03.41 PM.png

Edited by weathergoof
typo

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2 minutes ago, risingriver said:

From Sterling. Hedging some bets as is normal this far out.

 

They hit the same high points that most of the experienced on here have been mentioning. The multiple pieces in the N stream to contend with, how does the S. energy make it across the entire continent (well, until it gets to the Gulf anyway), better sampling importance - all checked off the list. 

We get some great posts in here  - please do continue. 

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8 minutes ago, risingriver said:

From Sterling. Hedging some bets as is normal this far out.

 

I'm actually shocked they went into that much detail! Sounds familiar...

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3 minutes ago, weathergoof said:

It jets up north into southern Canada at hour 84

Screenshot 2018-12-05 at 4.02.30 PM.png

Actually, it's in place over W PA at that hour at 1040mb. Not that it matters. Until/unless that Upper level confluence zone moves entirely out of the way, it would struggle to make too many inroads to the north of MidAtl. 

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2 minutes ago, weathergoof said:

See the "H" in Northern New Jersey at hour 81???

Screenshot 2018-12-05 at 4.03.41 PM.png

 

1 minute ago, weathergoof said:

It jets up north into southern Canada at hour 84

Screenshot 2018-12-05 at 4.02.30 PM.png

Just trying to help but that is where the model places the HP (high pressure) not necessarily where actual deepest HP is. Just to its SW into the Pittsburgh stretching to Minneapolis area is where the strongest HP location is you would need to move this area about a 100-150 miles north to allow for a further north progression as the storm would follow along the strongest boundary of differential temperature and collocated with the strongest lift being put out from the ULL just to the NW of the LP (low Pressure). 

If the whole area was moving NE with HP and LP different story but the energy into the Atlantic is only allowing and E movement maybe ENE at the time the system gets off the coast.

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1 hour ago, Phased Vort said:

Great to see the North Carolinian folks here.

Where are the Virginians?

Lurking - I think the vast majority of VA is holding their breath for another 75 miles north shift. 

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14 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

18z Nam v 12z GFS

GFS

image.png.77153a1a8db2454877447a7fa10667ed.png

NAM

image.png.19d29603507143912ac8eb3c4d4e4f17.png

NAM looks like it will go negative in the next two frames.....I am hoping it is onto something for those of us in the DC/Baltimore area.  Tired of seeing VA Beach and Richmond cash in on early season snows (last year was painful).

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6 minutes ago, weathergoof said:

It jets up north into southern Canada at hour 84

Screenshot 2018-12-05 at 4.02.30 PM.png

Look at the isobars and or the wind directions.  There's 1040 over Pittsburgh and 1038 over WI.   Note the winds to the SW of the H are out of the NW.  Thats not possible.

Same goes for LP - if you see it jump around, its graphics.  Follow the isobars and or wind circulation.  Especially during convective feedback when models want to jump the low to the Tstorms.

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1 minute ago, WeatherDCA said:

NAM looks like it will go negative in the next two frames.....I am hoping it is onto something for those of us in the DC/Baltimore area.  Tired of seeing VA Beach and Richmond cash in on early season snows (last year was painful).

Yeah, the frustrating thing is that the trough stays close to neutral as it moves east and strengthens.  

656576359_12-518znam500msp.gif.032c72b5ab9de15e46f2fd61ae6e1a6e.gif

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3 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Look at the isobars and or the wind directions.  There's 1040 over Pittsburgh and 1038 over WI.   Note the winds to the SW of the H are out of the NW.  Thats not possible.

Same goes for LP - if you see it jump around, its graphics.  Follow the isobars and or wind circulation.  Especially during convective feedback when models want to jump the low to the Tstorms.

It's kind of a shame - for it does have a banana appearance, usually good for many snow lovers into our region. It's that pesky UL confluence zone - it acts to lock the high instead of allowing that north by northeast "oozing away" that would be optimal for much snow for all. 

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2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Look at the isobars and or the wind directions.  There's 1040 over Pittsburgh and 1038 over WI.   Note the winds to the SW of the H are out of the NW.  Thats not possible.

Same goes for LP - if you see it jump around, its graphics.  Follow the isobars and or wind circulation.  Especially during convective feedback when models want to jump the low to the Tstorms.

Love seeing this stuff when I get word back ill throw in a convective feedback situation and misplacement of L's and H's on the map from the models and what causes it. Just heard it might be this monday for the new comp.

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1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

Yeah, the frustrating thing is that the trough stays close to neutral as it moves east and strengthens.  

656576359_12-518znam500msp.gif.032c72b5ab9de15e46f2fd61ae6e1a6e.gif

I think it was WeatherJunkie who used to say if the trough does not start toward neg by the time it reaches the Red River, the storm will struggle to do so later. 

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3 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

I think it was WeatherJunkie who used to say if the trough does not start toward neg by the time it reaches the Red River, the storm will struggle to do so later. 

It was also weatherjunkie who said " an apple a day keeps anyone away, if you throw it hard enough"  

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