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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

shaulov4

December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

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58 minutes ago, Moshe from brooklyn said:

 I Dont know if this is the right place to ask but ill try. I remember with the accuweather forums it was very helpful to me to see the location of any poster if the member entered it right on the post next to their name. Is there a way an administrator or someone higher up can do that? I liked to see where the poster is located without having to click and type on their info. Was very helpful to me. Overall this site is great and im really happy to be a part of it. 

Hi Moshe,

It's kind of the right place, but isn't, please go here so I can try to explain: An Explanation  for Moshe...

 

After seeing JD's post maybe I mis-understood.

Edited by Cignus

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24 minutes ago, WeatherDCA said:

NAM looks like it will go negative in the next two frames.....I am hoping it is onto something for those of us in the DC/Baltimore area.  Tired of seeing VA Beach and Richmond cash in on early season snows (last year was painful).

I think dc will be just below the northern extent of the steady snows.

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Whoa! NWS Greenville saying a once in a generation snow-sleet storm possible for western North Carolina. 

Miller A setup

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
329 PM EST Wed Dec 5 2018

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Wed: CAD will take shape across the region Saturday
with strong continental high pressure pushing to the Mid-Atlantic
Coast under strong upper confluence, just as a well-defined trough
(with embedded shortwave) initiates cyclogenesis along the central
Gulf Coast. The low subsequently will move across the Southeast
Coastal Plain in a Miller A-type configuration. Confidence has
increased that with the cold high in place, deep moisture, and
strong dynamic/isentropic forcing, a winter storm will affect a
large portion of the CWFA at the end of the week.

The strength of the high appears likely to keep temps below
freezing from early Saturday until early Monday across the
mountains/foothills and most of the NC Piedmont. Further south
temps are a bit more in question but certainly won`t be warm enough
to rule out wintry precip. There has been some disagreement among
the various guidance members as to how soon precip gets underway
Saturday as the initially stationary front develops between the
damming high and the coastal low. Low PoPs have been advertised
for this period with temps supportive of a rain/snow mix. That
front will develop into the typical wedge warm front Saturday
night as the forcing increases rapidly, peaking Sunday. Held close
to raw model temp trends Sat night and Sunday. The GFS is faster
with onset and also warmer aloft than the EC and Canadian. Even
with it being warmer, however, the warm nose is still small/cool
enough that it implies limited melting of falling hydrometeors. A
fairly large portion of the east-facing Blue Ridge and adjacent
Piedmont areas should remain below freezing aloft and therefore
will experience mostly if not all snow. The transition to sleet
should occur over a narrow region, with sfc temps expected to
be warm enough outside the "core" of the CAD airmass for a sharp
gradient to rain surrounding the sleet. Sfc temps could very well
trend colder given the strength of the CAD, so an expansion of
the snow/sleet area is still possible on subsequent fcsts. And of
course if warm advection aloft is more effective than currently
anticipated, a wider mention of FZRA could return. In terms of
amounts, the spectrum of QPF guidance has trended appreciably
upward this cycle, as have WPC`s numbers. Our fcst is slightly
below the EC ensemble mean at the sampled locations, and even
further below the GEFS mean. We are approaching increases in the
official fcst QPF cautiously since even modest snow ratios from
these values would result in snow/sleet accumulations that might
be a once-in-a-generation event for parts of the Piedmont.

Sunday night at least a brief lull is expected as the coastal low
moves off the Outer Banks. However, the consensus of the global
models is now for the aforementioned shortwave to meander thru the
area from then through Monday, by which time temps should be colder
aloft and the threat of sleet/FZRA should have ended. The shortwave
has the potential to generate more snow from lingering moisture,
and/or to drive convective snow showers through Monday. By Tuesday
morning dry high pressure will spread over the region along with
shortwave ridging. Temps will remain below normal, especially so
in areas with snow cover.

Cold High Pressure
Deep Moisture
Strong Dynamic Forcing

Should be interesting.

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the gfs isnt breaking down or moving the high pressure any higher than upstate NY at least up until hour 90

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Just now, weathergoof said:

the gfs isnt breaking down or moving the high pressure any higher than upstate NY at least up until hour 90

We would break the 4 day precip streak when there coulda been a storm ... oh well 

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Just now, weathergoof said:

the gfs isnt breaking down or moving the high pressure any higher than upstate NY at least up until hour 90

yep - if anything, there is MORE blockage in the way than at 12z

 

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18z NAM v 18z GFS

image.png.03510cfd22be18e087994534fca67445.png

GFS - Faster, weaker.  564 height barely makes it to KY while the NAM sends it to Indiana

image.png.333764dd33dd131b84f72a51176166c4.png

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Tries to move the confluence at Hr108 - too little too late? 

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This trend gif is a good illustration on how things can change.  The trailer ULL to start is in TN.  3 runs later its in MN.

1473415747_12-518zgfs500mbtrend.gif.9cfa7fb24dc96747a47050cba8a173cf.gif

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1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

I opened up a new thread for the 14-16 event.  Let’s see if I’m good or bad luck....don’t know if I ever opened a new thread before

If it makes you feel any better, I literally opened up ONE thread EVER in AccuWx.........And they shut down the site!!!!!

image.thumb.png.bc03976510700ab440ca834da33e0a5f.png

Edited by Miller A
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55 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

Lurking - I think the vast majority of VA is holding their breath for another 75 miles north shift. 

I'm in that majority!

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18z GFS seems broken

Not that it matters, per se. This solution is not the one most would hope for. 

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_18.png.17a26cbc5e3f67ed6ca32e2c730865ce.png

No arrows required. 

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9 minutes ago, weathergoof said:

stretchCT is that a good thing.... the movement north??

Not the way I read it.  That piece was supposed to steer the main ULL we are following north by sliding down the backside of the trough.  They don't meet up, so it just slides OTS

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I wonder what the CMC will show and the Nam will show as we reach midnight... The cmc was showing precip brushing LI... maybe a small shift of 100 miles and I would get something

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21 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

18z NAM v 18z GFS

image.png.03510cfd22be18e087994534fca67445.png

GFS - Faster, weaker.  564 height barely makes it to KY while the NAM sends it to Indiana

image.png.333764dd33dd131b84f72a51176166c4.png

Will that confluence in Maine make a difference on the Nam?

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Just now, Weather Fury said:

Will that confluence in Maine make a difference on the Nam?

No its the one that comes after it which is the problem 

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It's always fun tracking these things with everybody. Just don't think you can have a whole lot of confidence with what the models are putting out. They are putting together puzzle pieces but that's hard to do when you don't know the exact size and shape and even availability of the pieces. You're getting their best guess- their cold, robotic, emotionless, algorithmecally programmed guess. The hope is in 36 to 48 hours we'll feel more comfortable with what the forecast will be. But this is giving me a vibe like it's going to have surprises that we don't see coming until they are happening overhead. Too complicated to nail down early if at all. 

Edited by 1816

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Anyone have a good book to read on weather so I can pass the time until the next possible threat of snow for the northern MA.  I think I'm getting burnt out from looking at the models doing the same thing and expecting a different result (like going up the coast).

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4 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

No its the one that comes after it which is the problem 

I say it's both. That MW feature MUST get involved to pull the coastal reflection back, if not the confluence - which is part of a 951mb gale in the N Atl, has too much influence in the absence of any kind of Alt ridge of any value.

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8 minutes ago, weathergoof said:

I wonder what the CMC will show and the Nam will show as we reach midnight... The cmc was showing precip brushing LI... maybe a small shift of 100 miles and I would get something

Holy Christ - enough already.   And yes this is my first post - I had to sign up to let you know how incredibly annoying your posts are. 

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8 minutes ago, jrstd1234 said:

Anyone have a good book to read on weather so I can pass the time until the next possible threat of snow for the northern MA.  I think I'm getting burnt out from looking at the models doing the same thing and expecting a different result (like going up the coast).

Northeast Snow storms vol 1 & 2

I mean you could also go into texts from schools if you really wanna dabble in that.

Meteorology today is a good not overly scientific basic met scholar book that we used in met 101

Edited by so_whats_happening

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