Jump to content
Search In
  • More options...
Find results that contain...
Find results in...
White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

shaulov4

December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

Staff Recommended Posts

Think the new souls on here would appreaciate some arrows :).   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FV3 is outpacing the GFS :classic_laugh:

image.png.b8bb374fc05ae561ec917dee8dcd9f73.png

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks!  Is the Northeast Snow Storms Vol 1 and 2 for mainly NY state and north or does that include PA. I'm in PA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, jrstd1234 said:

Thanks!  Is the Northeast Snow Storms Vol 1 and 2 for mainly NY state and north or does that include PA. I'm in PA.

Its a general basics book on NE snowstorms and the understanding giving case studies of different aspects of storms. Its not necessarily state specified but goes into details of how the storms formed what were the impacts a look at 500mb and a few other layers if they happened to have it. Pretty cool book if you happen to want to learn more so then just NE snowstorms I recommend Meteorology Today. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Remember though these books are scholarly based so they will be a bit of a spend but totally worth it. Havent fully gotten through volume 1 and 2 but got them when I went to AMS out in Phoenix years ago almost got them signed by Uccellini himself but didnt make it in time. We got to go to NOAA headquarters though in Silver Spring for a tour and he met up with us and hung out with us for awhile.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure whats up with the GFS, but hr 240 came through and whoa!  Bringing that over to the 15th thread

image.png.6a1382a2ab2dea0f8d43d5c7fa6e42f8.png

Edited by StretchCT
  • Haha 1
  • Wow! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Greenjacket said:

Holy Christ - enough already.   And yes this is my first post - I had to sign up to let you know how incredibly annoying your posts are. 

PV, please pin this. Thank you.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 4
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

PV, please pin this. Thank you.

Tactless! Blunt! Hostile! A Must Read!

  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

PV, please pin this. Thank you.

giphy.gif

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

my  towel is  thrown  for my  area

towel.jpg

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Snobal said:

my  towel is  thrown  for my  area

towel.jpg

I thought you did that yesterday?

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Snobal said:

my  towel is  thrown  for my  area

towel.jpg

Cool. Thanks.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, 1816 said:

I thought you did that yesterday?

No, yesterday was the threat that he was going to throw it in today. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Precip from the 18z

image.thumb.png.35ddeb63d8d2a2cf64bb631144fa4653.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Snobal, I kinda dig the cadence of your writing. If you read it out loud, with the spaces, it sounds sort of Bill Shatner-ish!

  • Like 1
  • Haha 11

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, lynniethelurker said:

Snobal, I kinda dig the cadence of your writing. If you read it out loud, with the spaces, it sounds sort of Bill Shatner-ish!

YASSSSSSS

I knew there was something off about it. Totally just read it as Shatner and I'm dying. 😂

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, lynniethelurker said:

Snobal, I kinda dig the cadence of your writing. If you read it out loud, with the spaces, it sounds sort of Bill Shatner-ish!

This wins post of the thread!

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, risingriver said:

From Sterling. Hedging some bets as is normal this far out.

 

Normal stuff , nothing to see..  Move along.. JK . 

Actually they are right this is still up in the air as it has nto come down yet. :)

 

 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Snobal said:

my  towel is  thrown  for my  area

towel.jpg

and the sad thing is....   you think someone cares... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, lynniethelurker said:

Snobal, I kinda dig the cadence of your writing. If you read it out loud, with the spaces, it sounds sort of Bill Shatner-ish!

 

13 minutes ago, jdrenken said:

This wins post of the thread!

Atleast get it up top for the recommended posts :classic_biggrin:

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, avsguy said:

 

Atleast get it up top for the recommended posts :classic_biggrin:

That is being over used and is loosing it's usefulness.

  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, jdrenken said:

That is being over used and is loosing it's usefulness.

But get it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So I was double checking all the CIPS analogs and it turns out the 60 hour NAM (left) and 84 hour GFS (right) both have December 4-6, 2002 as the #1 analog in multiple regions (5 in total). It's worth noting that this date range doesn't make the top 15 in the green or purple regions in the right hand image where the northern and southern stream energies are centered. This means that a) northern and southern stream energies are very different than 2002, b) the model solutions are very wrong in the most important areas, or the most likely option c) a tasty nibble of both a) and b). 

1451246501_12-512zNAMh60CIPSboxes.png.75cfe3262e51d82ef72ffa37ccbe3543.png1751708100_12-512zGFSh84CIPSboxes.png.8d507170ddbbb38343da837de69d92d8.png

I did some more research into the December 4-6 time period and back-to-back storms impacted the east coast in 2002: "A record-breaking snowfall blanketed Hasbrouck Heights with one storm on Friday followed by a second storm on Saturday."  I think we need to consider the possibility of two storms in a row for some lucky areas. This seems like a good time to bring back the BSR depiction of this storm system evolution. It's important to note how the system does a loop-di-loop inland before going coastal, which may be a result of phasing with the northern stream kicker:

6179218_12-8BSRloop.gif.7b157ec8382d6cc827e72be0aaa60805.gif

Edited by StL WeatherJunkie
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Snobal said:

my  towel is  thrown  for my  area

towel.jpg

Yea, if by Friday nothing changes, I will be throwing in the towel for SW CT! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Not sure whats up with the GFS, but hr 240 came through and whoa!  Bringing that over to the 15th thread

image.png.6a1382a2ab2dea0f8d43d5c7fa6e42f8.png

Looks yummy 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×