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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

shaulov4

December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

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Please resolve issues with each other using the PM system. 

If needed, report and it will be looked at.

Future off topic posts related to this wishcasting discussion will be moderated.

Thanks.

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I utilized the ignore feature this morning for the first time. Made for a much better afternoon.

32 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

Please Stop with this nonsense.

 

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2 minutes ago, ryanduff said:

Just FYI the arrow/line is not the actual track, just direction of movement. The actual track would be between the 2 X's on the map. 

...you are correct sir...idee posts OPC forecasts for California weather religiously...he is an avid map reader(of almost any kind)...idee (California native...BOO!) was just trying to steer the convo back to topic...:smiley:

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4 minutes ago, PA Snow 84 said:

I utilized the ignore feature this morning for the first time. Made for a much better afternoon.

 

Thank you very much, did not know that existed.  May make the upcoming mayhem a much better experience.

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17 minutes ago, panda_monium said:

Definitely skeptical of that one, SOTC has that name for a reason.  In any event, I do hope Mayors and the governor of NC are keeping an eye on this and getting ready to arrange for out-of-state cleanup crews and utilities crews to come and help.  The state is ill-prepared for a foot of snow, let alone nearly 2 feet.

The sotc was actually a  fast moving snowstorm it just had an absolutely insanely huge and intense precip field.  I’m not surprised at all that some models are projecting more snow than the sotc in nc.  GOM moisture is no joke 

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Im conceding this storm to the south and saving the 14-16 for us up here.   Wish it was that easy 

031B2069-61D6-4636-BB0A-799B48451DBF.png

C223AA75-3497-4499-A6B1-467CBDF69DA7.png

Edited by PA road DAWG

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9 minutes ago, PA Snow 84 said:

I utilized the ignore feature this morning for the first time. Made for a much better afternoon.

 

Wait, we have that?

 

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28 minutes ago, NorEaster27 said:

Top 5 for Asheville coming? Interesting Superstorm flashback

 

That does make sense in that they will likely smell the rain. As we know, that transition zone can be crazy with frontogenenic influence - heavy rates could very well occur. 

IF the current track holds, that is. 

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4 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Im conceding this storm to the south and saving the 14-16 for us up here.   Wish it was that easy 

031B2069-61D6-4636-BB0A-799B48451DBF.png

C223AA75-3497-4499-A6B1-467CBDF69DA7.png

Then stop posting the next storm in this thread.

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1 hour ago, Uscg ast said:

If you purchase them on google books, it is considerably cheaper many times. Also, sometimes there are PDF versions that are free. 

Yes nice idea and I have a had a little bit of luck from finding a PDF version of some of them.

So to add to the topic though I will say that maybe the models are finally picking up on the slower approach of the system as a SW low normally tends to be slower and again usually tends to be closed off as well as it enters the southern plains and gulf region. We will see how it holds but that may be the difference in some locals.

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29 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

For the record- I know of this movie because of my nieces and nephews. That is my story and I am sticking to it. 

let_it_go.png

Righhhttt lol

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Ok seems many have skewed to the left and off topic, heres the line below

_____________________________________________

No more please... Thanks

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Looking back at the CMC I don't have much to argue here. It looks like a race of who gets there the first frame at hr108, the storm is making it out ahead of the northern confluence and by the time it comes Jersey gets a taste of wintery goodness. Is it just the CMC? I don't think so, I know its hr84 but still you can see on the NAM that while the storm is developing to the south, the first piece of confluence (or whatever anyone would like to call it) moves out slowly so before the second comes rolling the storm may be able to move north a bit having the same type of scenario as the CMC. 

image.png.34df9c4d777e25125dca676be16d5cb3.png

image.png.e79071a91f7b3c80a26f33ceccde0ee3.png

Nam

image.png.3da46b564c7997db6d2d2eb5b7155ad3.pngThe first one is still moving out.

Edited by shaulov4

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37 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

Wait, we have that?

 

I believe it is possible that snobal just posts for himself. He has each and every one of us on ignore. 

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...

4 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

Looking back at the CMC I don't have much to argue here. It looks like a race of who gets there the first frame at hr108, the storm is making it out ahead of the northern confluence and by the time it comes Jersey gets a taste of wintery goodness. Is it just the CMC? I don't think so, I know its hr84 but still you can see on the NAM that while the storm is developing to the south, the first piece of confluence (or whatever anyone would like to call it) moves out slowly so before the second comes rolling the storm may be able to move north a bit having the same type of scenario as the CMC. 

image.png.34df9c4d777e25125dca676be16d5cb3.png

image.png.e79071a91f7b3c80a26f33ceccde0ee3.png

Nam

image.png.3da46b564c7997db6d2d2eb5b7155ad3.pngThe first one is still moving out.

...idee for one last time on this thread...not my area of expertise...does idee spy an abrupt "Manhattan Transfer" showing up on the GEM...:hmm:

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11 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

Looking back at the CMC I don't have much to argue here. It looks like a race of who gets there the first frame at hr108, the storm is making it out ahead of the northern confluence and by the time it comes Jersey gets a taste of wintery goodness. Is it just the CMC? I don't think so, I know its hr84 but still you can see on the NAM that while the storm is developing to the south, the first piece of confluence (or whatever anyone would like to call it) moves out slowly so before the second comes rolling the storm may be able to move north a bit having the same type of scenario as the CMC. 

image.png.34df9c4d777e25125dca676be16d5cb3.png

image.png.e79071a91f7b3c80a26f33ceccde0ee3.png

Nam

image.png.3da46b564c7997db6d2d2eb5b7155ad3.pngThe first one is still moving out.

Can someone post the 18z cmc snow map?

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4 minutes ago, idecline said:

...

...idee for one last time on this thread...not my area of expertise...does idee spy an abrupt "Manhattan Transfer" showing up on the GEM...:hmm:

 

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2 minutes ago, NovaWxWarrior said:

Can someone post the 18z cmc snow map?

I believe there is no 18Z CMC products.

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Just now, Phased Vort said:

I believe there is no 18Z CMC products.

I think your right PV, Tropical Tidbits only show runs for 00Z & 12Z

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Just now, Phased Vort said:

I believe there is no 18Z CMC products.

Hmmm alright. Thought there was. Does the Dgex still exist to continue the NAM run?

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2 minutes ago, NovaWxWarrior said:

Hmmm alright. Thought there was. Does the Dgex still exist to continue the NAM run?

I only that was still around but unfortunately no have a little bit until 00z starts rolling for the storm time frame

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2 minutes ago, NovaWxWarrior said:

Hmmm alright. Thought there was. Does the Dgex still exist to continue the NAM run?

Haven't seen it in years. Cannot give you a definitive answer.

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Hidden inside the pdf hazard outlook briefing the first preliminary snowfall forecast map by NWS.

 Obviously subject to change. Looks historic with 12"+ in North Carolina. At least a Top 5 for December?

https://www.weather.gov/gsp/brief

5ZLkd7A.jpg

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