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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

shaulov4

December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

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21 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

That's none of you damn business. 

Split time between cascade, which is on mountain just east of hagerstown, and accident which is in garret county.

Sitting at 2,300’ in the Appalachians I’m sure Accident seees a decent amount of snow from the orographic lift from the lakes. 

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35 minutes ago, shaulov4 said:

 Thursday    Friday.   Saturday.    Sunday

     1                 2.              3                4

 

  1+2+3+4=8  Days to figure it out right? I was never good with math :yikes-mouse:

1,234 days. Your welcome. 

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1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said:

Sitting at 2,300’ in the Appalachians I’m sure Accident seees a decent amount of snow from the orographic lift from the lakes. 

Yes, our place is close to 2900'. Lots of snow. 

 

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3 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Yes, our place is close to 2900'. Lots of snow. 

 

How you guys holding up down there, by the way? 

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6 minutes ago, MDBlueRidge said:

Yes, our place is close to 2900'. Lots of snow. 

 

How much you get from the ‘16 blizzard there ?

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5 hours ago, JonSnow said:

Before we get side tracked with beating horse long, long dead, it is worth noting that it is not that far off topic.  Now that I am an old man I do old man kind of things, like listen to audio books about history.  It is quite surprising to find out how many battles and other historical events were won, or otherwise determined, by the most daunting, uncontrollable force - weather.  Lots of examples in both the civil war and the revolutionary war.  Actually history is shot through with such examples, I suspect many of you know even more of that than I do. 

I know this is off topic, but maybe the powers that be here could put in a section for weather effects on history. My chosen field of study was history. 

There are many instances of weather directly influencing very important events. Waterloo, The Bulge, The Dustbowl, The Medieval Warm Period followed by the Little Ice Age, on and on and on. You guys can kill me with the scientific mumbo jumbo, but this stuff is my bailiwick.

Anyhow...back to our regularly scheduled weather event.....

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5 minutes ago, Rich Mac said:

I know this is off topic, but maybe the powers that be here could put in a section for weather effects on history. My chosen field of study was history. 

There are many instances of weather directly influencing very important events. Waterloo, The Bulge, The Dustbowl, The Medieval Warm Period followed by the Little Ice Age, on and on and on. You guys can kill me with the scientific mumbo jumbo, but this stuff is my bailiwick.

Anyhow...back to our regularly scheduled weather event.....

You can use the Historic Weather forum or better yet maybe teach us a thing or two and blog it. Ancient and pre-historic climate intrigue me, some past events make todays weather/climate pale in comparison.

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Didn't see it posted - there actually was some improvement on the 18z EPS...Will be interesting to see how 00z looks.

 

 

Webp.net-gifmaker (2).gif

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I think we can stick a fork in this storm, as it certainly seems done for anyone north of the Mason Dixon line.

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1 hour ago, TC1 said:

I think we can stick a fork in this storm, as it certainly seems done for anyone north of the Mason Dixon line.

stick a fork? why is there steak around?

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At the rate some of the modeling is going, only NC will have any meaningful impact of wintery precip from this deal. If it keeps this up, one little Podunk town in SW NC may get the only headlines. Obviously, I'm being a wise cracker with that, but the way the wintery impact has been pared is not all that common. 

gfs_asnowd_seus_15.thumb.png.104b110d8bf2470144a3f99608cc13ec.png

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4 hours ago, TC1 said:

I think we can stick a fork in this storm, as it certainly seems done for anyone north of the Mason Dixon line.

I agree. It’s been done since Monday brother.  The model consensus was strong and south early with this one 

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15 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

I agree. It’s been done since Monday brother.  The model consensus was strong and south early with this one 

I know for us that live in our area its hard to believe these models that far out, so many times there have been changes but in this case the models did a pretty good job, fun to watch but tough to except. 

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46 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

At the rate some of the modeling is going, only NC will have any meaningful impact of wintery precip from this deal. If it keeps this up, one little Podunk town in SW NC may get the only headlines. Obviously, I'm being a wise cracker with that, but the way the wintery impact has been pared is not all that common. 

gfs_asnowd_seus_15.thumb.png.104b110d8bf2470144a3f99608cc13ec.png

Anyone care to explain this one? What the heck is going on with the gfs here? Seems just a little weird. 

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20 minutes ago, KENNYP2339 said:

I know for us that live in our area its hard to believe these models that far out, so many times there have been changes but in this case the models did a pretty good job, fun to watch but tough to except. 

Yes I agree they did do a good job this time around.  I guess once you nail down the confluence the rest is easy 

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11 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Yes I agree they did do a good job this time around.  I guess once you nail down the confluence the rest is easy 

That's just it - confluence is NEVER easy to nail down. Those zones very often overplay and overstay on models - usually moving out in reality instead of anchoring stronger. If that is not the case here (that the models overstated) that does not mean the models do well with it every single time. 

 

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Hulks - lol, I like it

AFDCTP  (not a link)

Quote

A large high pressure bean initially above 1037mb then hulks over the Ohio Valley and PA/nrn Mid-Atlantic States for many days. This anticyclone should shunt the big southern stream storm off to our south, perhaps well to our south. With each passing set of guidance, it is becoming more and more certain (almost entirely certain) that PA will see no effects from this storm. Have lowered PoPs to nearly nil through Thursday.

 

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19 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Anyone care to explain this one? What the heck is going on with the gfs here? Seems just a little weird. 

Looks like the low is several hundred miles out in the ocean relative to where it has been. Seems like gfs just doing its gfs thing. Unless something else starts looking like that I'm going to have to go with ignore. 

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If the trends in the overnight model runs continue, this could end up busting for a lot of people who were expecting a nice snowstorm in VA and NC. What a terribly annoying storm to track.

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I woke up to see NWS has increased us from the 5-10 range to 7-14, and then get my bubble burst with this.  I will still hold out hope, after all, mostly dead is slightly alive.

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25 minutes ago, UTSwiinii said:

Hulks - lol, I like it

AFDCTP  (not a link)

 

Kinda how I feel after the past few days in here. 

NegligibleQualifiedAdmiralbutterfly-size

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8 minutes ago, PAXpatriot said:

If the trends in the overnight model runs continue, this could end up busting for a lot of people who were expecting a nice snowstorm in VA and NC. What a terribly annoying storm to track.

Not to worry, my friend. Plenty of other chances already in the LR (of course, they may turn out to be equally annoying :classic_laugh:)

 

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Sref plumes still beating the drum for Aberdeen Proving Ground. Haha

1994407415_ScreenShot2018-12-07at6_35_40AM.png.7262b7e235b74f94db48d1ad06c591cd.png

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Key paragraph from WPC Model Diagnostics Discussion for the 00z suite--

Quote

Overall, the WPC preference this cycle is for a general model
blend with slightly less weight toward the NAM by day 3 (Sunday).

 

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