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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

shaulov4

December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

Staff Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, NovaWxWarrior said:

Can someone post the 12z GEM? Seems like it had a shift north to bring snow closer to sourthern DC suburbs. 

sure..here you go

gem_asnow_eus_14.thumb.png.97cfd9a53ca63f0b4b2f78ea3d184167.png

 

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5 minutes ago, NovaWxWarrior said:

Can someone post the 12z GEM? Seems like it had a shift north to bring snow closer to sourthern DC suburbs. 

No I refuse to lol.  It’s been all over the place.  Imo The gfs did a great job with this so far.   That’s all u need to look at 

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7 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

No I refuse to lol.  It’s been all over the place.  Imo The gfs did a great job with this so far.   That’s all u need to look at 

Times are desperate when we're considering the GEM model solution. :classic_laugh:

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18 minutes ago, davidt08 said:

sure..here you go

gem_asnow_eus_14.thumb.png.97cfd9a53ca63f0b4b2f78ea3d184167.png

 

If you weather gurus would go ahead and lock that in I would appreciate it.  I mean, all this back and forth stuff is fun, but I could really go with that.

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2 minutes ago, JonSnow said:

If you weather gurus would go ahead and lock that in I would appreciate it.  I mean, all this back and forth stuff is fun, but I could really go with that.

Wish I could.

 

Image result for han solo never tell me the odds gif

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27 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

No I refuse to lol.  It’s been all over the place.  Imo The gfs did a great job with this so far.   That’s all u need to look at 

Getting

Fooled

Slowly

 

I feel like this model takes pleasure in last minute 180s. I just don't know at what point to finally give into it. It's like Lucy with the football. Every time.  The nam has me wondering, but what if they're working together now?? @PAXpatriot was right this storm's just annoying. 

Edited by 1816
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27 minutes ago, risingriver said:

Sterling expected snowfall. This is just sad.

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

Uhh... that's from the storm around 11/15-11/17 per the dates on the image. Here's the correct image.

image.thumb.png.e374fda7989184ec484b0697fbc4fb5b.png

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1 minute ago, ryanduff said:

Uhh... that's from the storm around 11/15-11/17 per the dates on the image. Here's the correct image.

image.thumb.png.e374fda7989184ec484b0697fbc4fb5b.png

Great. Now even its even more sad. :classic_laugh:

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Hello!

Long time lurker from Accu forum popping in.

Is it just me or are some of newer runs pushing the storm slightly more north, maybe enough where the DC area might get at least a little?

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Well remember all, no model has ever controlled the weather. Not a complaint just a statement of fact.    We will see what happens.   The chase is sometimes better than the capture.   

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, VA-Snow said:

Hello!

Long time lurker from Accu forum popping in.

Is it just me or are some of newer runs pushing the storm slightly more north, maybe enough where the DC area might get at least a little?

If you are Canadian, I think you have a chance.  Otherwise, it doesn't look promising.

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48 minutes ago, ryanduff said:

Uhh... that's from the storm around 11/15-11/17 per the dates on the image. Here's the correct image.

image.thumb.png.e374fda7989184ec484b0697fbc4fb5b.png

Thanks, Ryan. I thought I edited that to drop the right picture in. Dang it. 

Death of a snowstorm.

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At least there is a chance.......

5C706F86-1BD6-4A4D-8362-64ED49A312E1.png

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6 minutes ago, wtkidz said:

At least there is a chance.......

5C706F86-1BD6-4A4D-8362-64ED49A312E1.png

I'd feel better if they were forecasting an accumulation instead of just a 60% chance. Snow that doesn't stick is pretty and all, but useless.

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FWIW 12Z NAVGEM is about the least progressive of the models.  QPF all the way up to DE & SNJ.  If the corollary holds true could be some surprises for DC and possibly Baltimore and Delmarva area. 

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_11.png

navgem_z500_mslp_us_12.png

Edited by paletitsnow63

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Just now, paletitsnow63 said:

FWIW 12Z NAVGEM is about the least progressive of the models.  QPF all the way up to DE & SNJ

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_11.png

navgem_z500_mslp_us_12.png

Red flag imo. 

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36 minutes ago, risingriver said:

I'd feel better if they were forecasting an accumulation instead of just a 60% chance. Snow that doesn't stick is pretty and all, but useless.

My wife has said the same thing about me for 32 years

Edited by wtkidz

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16 minutes ago, Uscg ast said:

Red flag imo. 

This whole thing is a red flag. One of the weirdest storms I can recall in a while. 

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17 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

FWIW 12Z NAVGEM is about the least progressive of the models.  QPF all the way up to DE & SNJ.  If the corollary holds true could be some surprises for DC and possibly Baltimore and Delmarva area. 

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_11.png

navgem_z500_mslp_us_12.png

 

I'll re-share the relevant bit from the Sterling AFD I pasted this morning. 

Quote

The main focus in the short term is the significant storm system passing to the south. This system continues to trend slightly southward, but the current forecast maintains a bit of caution above what the most recent guidance would suggest, given potential for a flip flop.

 

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1 minute ago, ryanduff said:

 

I'll re-share the relevant bit from the Sterling AFD I pasted this morning. 

 

I'm still expecting the whole thing to continue ticking north until the last minute. And only because its happened so many times. I really don't care to dig out from a foot and a half of snow.  

*goes back to scratching head in puzzlement*

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25 minutes ago, paletitsnow63 said:

FWIW 12Z NAVGEM is about the least progressive of the models.  QPF all the way up to DE & SNJ.  If the corollary holds true could be some surprises for DC and possibly Baltimore and Delmarva area. 

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_11.png

navgem_z500_mslp_us_12.png

 

I think I read where NAVGEM is very usable for track, but not impacts. I agree the track makes me think other models may move further north, which is why I haven't tossed in the towel for NOVA yet, but I'm not thinking because the NAVGEM run shows precip over NOVA and DELMARVA that the impacts come that far north unless I see a north trend on other models also. I hope that makes sense.

 

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So 2 new model runs show it trending north quite a bit but confidence is still low on it actually doing this. This is one tricky storm

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1 minute ago, VA-Snow said:

So 2 new model runs show it trending north quite a bit but confidence is still low on it actually doing this. This is one tricky storm

Which ones?

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