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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

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I figured I will go ahead and start this topic.  Majority of global models: GFS/EURO/CMC/ICON and ensembles are coming more in line for a winter storm for portions of the Southeast.  Wave of energy comes ashore in Southern California and tracks eastward across the deep south into Southeast.  Models for the past few runs has a 1039 mb high pressure dropping into the central plains late next week.  The 12 EURO run tracked the slp across the Northern Gulf and off the Southeast coast...it appears to transfer energy to a secondary low that tracks along the SE coastline then OTS

1908314597_euro1.thumb.png.248c5f7d7a1e8f1f887f92521e2434d5.png728219033_euro2.thumb.png.f1c0a48da99602a48ee13745dc96a8c9.png1707521951_euro3.thumb.png.7baf4df00a9662276a5a877efb0009fd.png41982977_euro4.thumb.png.9d81fe9b4a8a92a71bf91374de51ed49.png

Right now differences in the track of models changes how much wintry weather some places get, i.e Atlanta area. However, confidence is growing for CAD favored regions and across NC/ Upstate SC into E TN/ NE Ga for a possible winter storm.   This is still 6-7 days out so plenty of time for models to change.

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Thanks for starting a topic! Local mets were pretty bullish on the news this evening. I looked at all 50 Euro ensembles earlier, and only 2 did not show snow for my locale. That’s impressive at this timeframe. I have a feeling we’re going to be seeing a lot of model porn on social media this week... and I love it.

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Day 6 snowfall % chance of 0.25" of liquid or greater

prbww_sn25_DAY6.gif.7694e2a13dfc43ad98b3f162c3c01b45.gif

Day 7

prbww_sn25_DAY7.gif.755a9a1fa4be8e2af017fa269243908f.gif

 

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Looks like a real good dose of snow here in the east TN mountains. Any thoughts out there?

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OMG!!  Someone said something over here! :classic_biggrin:
Am I reading this correctly or does the NAM have this thing moving more slowly then the more longer range models?  Is it supposed to still be in New Orleans at this time frame?

image.gif

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Latest NAM
Looks like some decent ice on all the way down into the middle parts of parts of GA and SC.

image.png

Edited by Kohler7

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Yeah that's a big hit on the NAM as CAD works into ATL metro with the 1040mb high.

18z ecmwf also had ice in cad areas in N GA with snow in Upstate into North Carolina beginning. Some models been hinting at back side energy closing off and some snow over portions of TN and N GA then East into Carolinas.

2oa1zy.gif.4e3c233a2451078fe499d2f7b2f6708e.gif

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I just can't wait to have  those strong bands over us and seeing the white out outside!! :6:

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12z GFS sticking with its warm bias....

Screen Shot 2018-12-06 at 11.18.07 AM.png

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You say warm bias but my area actually is in even more of a bulls-eye now.

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26 minutes ago, Kohler7 said:

You say warm bias but my area actually is in even more of a bulls-eye now.

I'm looking at AR, SC, GA, TN & KY with that thought. Compare to NAM for those areas and you'll see the difference is striking...

Screen Shot 2018-12-06 at 12.08.39 PM.png

Edited by telejunkie

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hello friends. I was worried about hanging out over here in the SE thread but I just saw telejunkie is over here and he's basically from central canada. 

Quite a doozy shaping up. I think the ice/snow battle we surely be something to watch. 

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This one should be a doozy.

Enjoy, Southeast friends.

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Thanks guys! :)
No one said you couldn't come hangout over here.  Everyone is welcome to come visit the south! :classic_cool:
Telejunkie, the NAM doesn't have the storm moved all the way through yet so that's an incomplete snow map.

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I'll take it!!!  I'm good with this!!  Lets just go with this!! :yahoo:
 

image.png

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12z Euro snow, Kuchera

1639904667_12-612zeurosnow.thumb.png.c717f014ae6503dd129e6265e1dba602.png

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Hello! Joining the party here! Holding out hope for a jog South, would rather have some white stuff than more rain!

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Welcome!  And absolutely, whole heartedly agree!

Edited by Kohler7
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Hopefully folks get to enjoy this event without too many negative issues.  Will be a tricky Monday morning commute for some I imagine.  I'm not sad to miss it, as it will hopefully give me clear skies so I can look for the comet.

ECMWF frozen precipitation liquid equivalentu

Screenshot_20181207-044543.jpg.c516493ddc79dd5c45b68db7d91ae264.jpg

 

 

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Have I got good timing or what?  I’m flying into BNA on Sunday morning for work (and visit family).

FV3-GFS is showing widespread 6” and isolated 10”+ for middle Tennessee. That would be absolutely crushing.

22CD56AF-7BC4-4123-885F-2E6AD3A63D86.jpeg

Edited by Burr@Work

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2 minutes ago, Burr@Work said:

Have I got good timing or what?  I’m flying into BNA on Sunday morning for work (and visit family).

FV3-GFS is showing widespread 6” and isolated 10”+ for middle Tennessee. That would be absolutely crushing.

22CD56AF-7BC4-4123-885F-2E6AD3A63D86.jpeg

Do you think this will be accurate? TWC, Accuweather and WE all basically have minimal amounts of snow this weekend. What day is that supposed to be? 

 

I live just 20minutes above Nashville in Hendersonville. We just moved here from Florida so we are looking to see a decent amount of snow for our first winter. 

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I love how the snow totals are getting less and less the closer we get.
Bulls-eye keeps moving too.  Now it's in northern SC basically. :P

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I’m seeing a slight trend south, but then again I’ve been on the road all day transporting fox hounds so I haven’t had time to really study it since this morning. 😐

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