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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

snowlover2

December 13-15, 2018 | Potential Winter Storm

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2 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said:

Ugh. If this thing misses us to the West...!

I dont see it being much of anything right now without some changes to the entire weather pattern, let alone the storm. Too warm and cutoff from the cold air source for now even as it stands on the ECM 

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I wouldn't sweat on cold air this early in the game. A deep enough low will snow inside its deformation axis. Yea the GFS shows no snow because its barely hanging on to a sub 1000mb slp while the Euro gets it down to 988mb. If this materializes it will be a paste.

Edited by junior
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No ongoing cold thread, so I'll post this here...Coldest morning of the season yet IMBY:

 

COLD.jpg

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Per this specific model run (6zGFS) three things to watch, obviously the low pressure track and the pull from the gulf, the high pressure track pulling moisture from the Atlantic. Those two suggest moisture will not be a problem with this system however in my opinion the BIG if is what does the high pressure out west do and how will the low pressure interact with the cold air where shown in the photo. We’re not just tracking the low but the high pressures because they are going to play a big role in what goes on. Per this model run there is no cold blast to follow this system. This system spells roller coaster of emotions the next 7-10  days, buckle up! A lot will change. 

D72E3C3A-ED06-45D8-888B-AE6AD3CFC7C6.jpeg

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2 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

No ongoing cold thread, so I'll post this here...Coldest morning of the season yet IMBY:

 

COLD.jpg

Looks like a really nice weather station!  Which is that if you don't mind me asking?

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12z gfs appears to be coming in colder. Let’s see what happens 

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yeah this setup is garbage....to be blunt lol. I'm ready for a new pattern outside of whatever we've been stuck in since November 

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56 minutes ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

 

1.png

Now there’s a snow map you don’t see everyday!!

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1 hour ago, ohiobuckeye45 said:

yeah this setup is garbage....to be blunt lol. I'm ready for a new pattern outside of whatever we've been stuck in since November 

Yeah, so much for the “predicted” storm track from ~OK to Mid Atlantic that was posted in the Long Range thread a couple of weeks back.

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1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

12z Euro looks like it doesn't completely cut off this time.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png

That frame doesn’t look bad would have to see precip map though.

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11 minutes ago, Snow_____ said:

That frame doesn’t look bad would have to see precip map though.

Precip maps still showing all rain.

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1 hour ago, Snow_____ said:

That frame doesn’t look bad would have to see precip map though.

 

1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

Precip maps still showing all rain.

Ugly. 

download (18).png

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You're not getting much snow with a mostly positively tilted system in this setup. (hr192)

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16 hours ago, junior said:

You're not getting much snow with a mostly positively tilted system in this setup. (hr192)

Thankfully it's still a ways out, lots of time to change! I can't recall too many times that 192 hour modeling verified. Heck, look at the current storm in the south, even the 84 hour modeling did not verify.

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