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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

snowlover2

December 13-15, 2018 | Potential Winter Storm

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6 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Nothing like simultaneous snowflakes in Atlanta & heavy rain in Detroit :huh-2:

gfs1.png

Blech. Such a shame there's no cold air to work with, this could have been a dynamite blizzard for someone!

Edited by weather_boy2010

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Whether this bugger brings snow or not, it certainly is an interesting bugger.  Here is hour 162 mean slp. from the 12Z GEFS compared to operational at the same hour:image.thumb.png.36c61c0794a802fd7be88faca95a4a3e.png

image.thumb.png.9d463bc05c370150a10e10ada1982897.png

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12Z Euro just lolligags the low pressure from Texas along the southern and southeast coast off of the Carolinas. A 'Meh' run all around.

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What about the 12z ICON:classic_laugh:? 12z GFS brought back the original Euro idea. 

 

ICON would be almost a carbon copy of what you want to see a full on true blizzard for KY/OH into MI and IN.

Edited by junior

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16 minutes ago, junior said:

What about the 12z ICON:classic_laugh:? 12z GFS brought back the original Euro idea. 

 

ICON would be almost a carbon copy of what you want to see a full on true blizzard for KY/OH into MI and IN.

Lock it in!

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_58.png

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2142561752_Screenshot_20181208-143034_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.631413f833c31f45de90730bb69e8d78.jpg

1 hour ago, RobB said:

12Z Euro just lolligags the low pressure from Texas along the southern and southeast coast off of the Carolinas. A 'Meh' run all around.

Euro took an El Nino track with a super el nino temp profile. No winter until further notice.

Screenshot_20181208-143012_Samsung Internet.jpg

  • Haha 1

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We definitely do not want a cutoff too early... sure after it bombs out but not already cutoff in TX like the Euro.

 

12z Euro control and members do have some big phasers in there though.

Edited by junior

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37 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

18z GFS looks pretty similar to the 12z Euro.

I was just about to post that.  Similar indeed.

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I'd rather this storm just vanish at this point. My yard, woods, and pond are to the brim literally with water. Any more rain would just add insult to injury

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Pattern looks like it breaks from the warm pattern Christmas week with more of a focus on the northern stream. Anything is better than what we've had recently

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I've heard Christmas looks promising. This storm is not looking good as models just want to cutoff from the northern stream which supplied it with cold air. I think its because the northern stream is too progressive in this case due to energy behind it.

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7 hours ago, Mulaman984 said:

00Z CMC with a cold air Hail Mary 

 

11723A14-2FE6-46B5-BC93-EF1E7289FA5C.jpeg

C54F58CF-4656-4097-A97D-A9AA1A13FFDB.jpeg

12z GGEM still holding on to the idea.

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I’m still surprised with the variation of all the models, one thing to note as usual hour 84 NAM is about 5-10 degrees cooler at the surface and from what I’m seeing more models are beginning to interact with the cold air a little more. 

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winter so far this year, comparing latitudes, its pretty clear to see the areas that have been screwed in the early going

1.JPG

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5 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Finally back on.

Lol, relegated to lurking the past 24 hours. Think me, you and Planetmaster are the only ones that went through with account deletions.

 

Back to the normal daily venting of modeling teases

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Glad this is back up and running.  

 

For the modeling...looks to stay “warm” til about xmas week

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19 minutes ago, CincySnow said:

Glad this is back up and running.  

 

For the modeling...looks to stay “warm” til about xmas week

maybe we'll get lucky again like last year... christmas eve we got at least some snow. That was nice. 

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